Vestnik RUDN. International Relations

One of the defining characteristics of the emerging polycentric international order is the persistence of military rivalry. The United States remains engaged in political and military competition with both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation. The demise of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) has provided Washington with the possibility of adding another instrument of power projection to its arsenal: land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. This category of weapons has both advantages and disadvantages. In the author’s view, the central problem regarding post-INF missiles today lies less in the stabilizing or destabilizing effects of their deployment in Europe and the western Pacific than in how the U. S. leadership will interpret events once these missiles are actually fielded. This study aims to identify the possible consequences of deploying U. S. intermediate-range missiles in Europe and the western part of the Pacific Ocean. The theoretical framework of the research is the deterrence theory. The originality of the proposed approach to the INF issue is that it makes it possible to examine the widest possible range of potential scenarios in the event of deployment, and to clarify how this ensemble of scenarios may be perceived by the U. S. administration. The primary research method employed is modelling. The analysis focuses on the possible actions of both sides during a crisis between the United States and Russia, as well as between the United States and China. The comparative method is used to juxtapose the doctrinal provisions of these states regarding the employment of non-nuclear weapons. The modelling of likely crisis situations demonstrates that, at each stage of escalation, there are both real risks of further deterioration and opportunities for de-escalation and settlement. It is plausible that non-nuclear intermediate-range missiles may become, for the United States, an important instrument for waging a limited armed conflict with a nuclear-armed state at the pre-nuclear level. By operating on the brink of major war, such missiles could compel adversaries to make political concessions.

This study examines the relationship between military rule and the initiation of interstate wars. The prevailing view in academic literature holds that the involvement of the military in political power increases the frequency of armed conflicts between states. This paper aims to empirically test whether military governments are indeed more likely to initiate interstate wars compared to other types of autocracies, and to assess the validity of the claim that military dictatorships are more prone than military regimes to initiating interstate armed conflicts and wars. To this end, a list of armed interstate conflicts from 1946 to 2007 was compiled, and the initiator states were categorized by their political regime type to identify potential correlations. Conflict data were drawn from the Correlates of War project. For the purpose of this study, a list of 38 interstate conflicts occurring between 1946 and 2007 was compiled, and the political regime type of each conflict initiator was identified. The findings suggest that, in general, authoritarian regimes initiate more interstate conflicts than democracies. Compared to other types of autocracy, military rule does not rank first in the initiation of interstate wars; instead, it is typically preceded by personalist dictatorships. The study distinguishes between military dictatorships and military regimes. A military dictatorship is a form of military rule in which the head of state or president is a career military officer who comes to power through the overthrow of a civilian government-i.e., via a military coup. Its key distinction from a military regime lies in the absence of a collegial governing body. A military regime represents a more institutionalized form of military rule. It has been established that military dictatorships initiate wars and armed interstate conflicts more frequently than military regimes, a difference attributed to the presence of checks and balances in the form of a military government junta acting as a collegial authority. The initiation of international conflict by military authorities coincides with the existence of a territorial dispute between the states involved. The findings of this study significantly contribute to understanding the escalation and potential resolution of international conflicts.

The relevance of this study stems from the fact that cyber operations have become an integral element of contemporary armed conflicts, while the applicability of international humanitarian law (IHL) to the digital environment remains contested and is only partially regulated. In practice, this is reflected by the lack of well-established criteria for classifying specific cyber operations as an “attack,” a “use of force,” or as unfriendly yet formally lawful conduct. Given the transboundary nature of information and communication technologies, the anonymity of actors, and the involvement of non-state entities, there is still no common approach to qualifying cyber activities or protecting civilian infrastructure, which complicates the development of a coordinated international response to cyber incidents. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that many cyber operations do not cause physical destruction, but rather result in a loss of functionality of systems, calling into question traditional understandings of violence and harm under IHL. The methodology of the study combines a comparative legal analysis of official national positions, United Nations documents, and specialized doctrinal sources, with a systematic interpretation of IHL norms as applied to new forms of armed confrontation. The research employs doctrinal legal analysis, content analysis of governmental doctrines and expert commentaries, as well as elements of case studies focusing on representative cyber incidents, including operations targeting critical infrastructure and dual-use information systems. This article contributes to the literature by providing an integrated examination of three pivotal dimensions of the application of IHL to cyber operations: digital sovereignty, the classification of cyberattacks, and the distinction between military and civilian objectives in cyberspace. For the first time within a single analytical framework, it juxtaposes Russian and Western approaches to sovereignty in the digital domain, to the thresholds for qualifying cyber activities as “attacks,” and to the legal status of data and dual-use objects for humanitarian protection purposes. The findings demonstrate that divergent national approaches to digital sovereignty and attribution impede the development of common criteria for applying the IHL principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution to cyber operations that do not involve physical destruction. The article therefore argues for clarifying the status of data as objects protected under IHL and for adapting traditional categories of military and civilian objectives to the operating conditions of critical information infrastructure.

This article examines the Chinese approach to understanding strategic communication (SC) and its relevance in the context of globalization. Cultural values and traditions are becoming important tools for creating a positive image of China, especially in the face of competition with the West. Modern challenges require China to adapt its strategic communication. Culture can serve as the basis for addressing these challenges. The study is based on structural realism, which emphasizes the anarchic nature of the international system. It argues that China should use its cultural heritage to develop its own unique approach to SC, rather than simply copying Western models. Within the framework of this theory, China’s foreign policy is examined through such concepts as “peaceful development,” “soft power,” the Community of Shared Future for Mankind, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which are aimed at strengthening China’s position in the international arena. The methodology used includes comparative and discourse analysis to demonstrate how cultural tools contribute to the formation of China’s strategic communication. The novelty of this article lies in identifying the foundations of China’s SC and key cultural values. The importance of integrating Chinese culture into SC as a key tool for enhancing soft power is explained. The article outlines important milestones in the development of soft power, focusing on socialist culture. The driver of increasing interest in strategic culture under Xi Jinping is identified. Attention is also given to attempts to promote an alternative model of international governance, primarily through the BRI and the Community of Shared Future for Mankind. The value dimensions of the Western and Chinese models are also presented. The article identifies cultural characteristics of China’s soft power, challenges, and adaptations to it in the context of differences in values within the country, criticism from Western countries, and the rapid development of internet platforms and AI technologies. The authors conclude that strategic culture (propaganda) plays an important role in the development of strategic communication both domestically and internationally.

This paper investigates the applicability of the concept of ‘falling forward’ to crisis management in the European Union. An idea central to the literature is that the EU draws upon crisis situations to enhance its power and influence, as member states are willing to delegate further competencies to EU organs in order to collectively solve pressing problems. The assumption that crisis situations lead to an increase in the power of the supranational entity has been the subject of multiple studies, yet, the long-term impact of this process, which takes place with minimal public accountability, has been largely neglected. We seek to go beyond the short-term effects of crises on integration, to determine how shock events impact integration structures in the long run. A mixed methods inquiry, based on 102 survey responses and 15 interviews with EU experts, triangulated with Eurobarometer results, reveals that accelerated integration can foster dissatisfaction, bringing about a surge in elections of extremist and Eurosceptic parties. These political changes could pose a significant threat to EU integration and may cause the union to ‘fall backward’ rather than ‘forward’, as is systematically predicted in the existing academic literature. The case-study of the 2022 energy crisis in the EU confirms that the regional organisation does indeed gain in power and influence as it works to manage and mitigate the repercussions of a crisis but that this strengthening gives rise to new challenges for the union. This paper yields novel theoretical insights into the spill-over process (including the original concept of ‘falling backward’) and the functioning of regional organisations as complex polities.

In recent years, the BRICS group has undergone profound transformations, including the expansion of its membership, the establishment of alternative global financial institutions, and the diminishing role of the dollar in intrabloc settlements. However, this rapid evolution has also revealed pre-existing challenges and generated new constraints on multilateral cooperation among member states. Despite these obstacles, it is evident that BRICS has undoubtedly become a major driver in the ongoing transformation of the global order. As a result, forecasts regarding the association’s future, ranging from strongly optimistic to alarmist, have proliferated, while its nature and long-term objectives continue to be interpreted in diverse ways. The present study aims to identify the key themes and trends in academic literature on BRICS, and analyze how scholars conceptualize its development within the broader context of global order transformation. Using both qualitative and quantitative content analysis, the research examines peer-reviewed journal articles and monographs published between 2023 and April 2025. The findings reveal the absence of a unified scholarly perspective on BRICS’ evolution. Publications authored by researchers from non-Western countries outnumber those from Western academia. Differences in analytical approaches depend largely on the focus of research-whether it addresses individual member states or BRICS as a whole-and on the disciplinary lens, encompassing economic, political, or cultural-humanitarian dimensions. The topics attracting the greatest scholarly attention include BRICS financial and trade integration, the establishment of non-Western financial mechanisms, de-dollarization, the development of instruments for mutual settlements, and the use of new technologies to enhance economic governance. The persistent challenges experienced by the region are multifaceted, encompassing disparities in economic and political capacities, divergent national interests, bilateral tensions, and the growing difficulty of achieving consensus amid continued expansion. The most promising areas of potential lie in expanding intra-BRICS trade, strengthening non-dollar payment frameworks, and increasing the group’s influence in key sectors of the global economy such as energy, agriculture, and the extraction of strategic resources, including rare earth elements.

The article presents the results of a media geographic research of the European mental space. The theoretical and methodological tools of media geography as a new direction in humanitarian research are adapted by the author to study the mental landscapes of different countries that are transforming in the context of digital reality and the mediatization of all spheres of public life. This study focuses on analyzing Europeans’ interests in the field of international relations. The empirical basis of the study is the statistics of Internet users’ requests in European countries on topics substantively related to international politics. The research methodology involved implementing different methods (rank analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis) in a space-time coordinate system. Rank analysis revealed which topics of international politics Europeans are most interested in, and how they feel about them. Based on the study results, several factors were identified that characterize the Internet users’ behavior of different European countries in relation to events and processes in the international field. Cluster analysis illustrated the similarities and differences in Europeans’ reactions to potential international conflicts. The study’s findings enabled us to draw several conclusions that classify European countries according to their priorities when reacting to current international crises: the first group includes Sweden, France, Great Britain, Belgium and Spain, whose Internet audiences are focused on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; the second group consists of Serbia, Finland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, with a focus on political processes involving Russia. Interpretation of the obtained results makes it possible to form ideas about conflict zones in the European mental landscape in the context of international relations, which can become the basis for predicting the social behavior of the population of European countries and the nature of Europeans’ response to international politics.

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