卷 19, 编号 3 (2019): International Energy Cooperation
完整期次
THEMATIC DOSSIER
International Dimension of Contemporary U.S. Energy Policy: Challenges for Russia and the World
摘要
Since the mid-2000s, the American energy industry has undergone profound changes. Having made the so-called shale revolution and achieved impressive results in the field of energy efficiency and renewable energy, the United States of America has not only radically reduced its dependence on imported hydrocarbons, but has begun to increase exports of these commodities. Given the economic weight of the U.S., such changes have significantly transformed the global energy market, requiring leading oil and gas exporters (including Russia) to take non-standard steps (for example, the OPEC+ deal). They also created serious prerequisites for Washington’s revision of its traditional energy policy in the international arena. The author makes a conclusion that the United States has not yet come out of the paradigm of net oil importer, which was formed after the first world oil crisis of 1973-1974. This means that Washington is still committed to the traditional principles of it’s foreign energy policy: diversification of oil import sources; promotion of free trade in world energy; special relations with oil exporters in the Persian Gulf and the strategic importance of the Middle East; reliance on energy suppliers from the Western hemisphere, etc. However, having radically reduced oil and gas imports and having got the opportunity to export them, the United States could not help but bring something new to its energy policy. While still prioritizing security of energy supply, the U.S. under B. Obama has started talking about the American energy independence, and D. Trump has proclaimed the global energy dominance as a new key American goal. The author assumes that global energy dominance implies Washington’s aggressive promotion of the American energy exporters, as well as its intention to turn the U.S. into a technological leader and a key regulator in the global energy market. Moreover, the U.S. has become freer in the matter of sanctions and other pressure on major oil and gas exporters, guided by its geopolitical and economic interests. Due to the growth of the American oil and gas export potential, the confrontation between Moscow and Washington in the energy sector, which began during the Cold war, has now acquired an additional economic dimension. Previously, the United States has tried to restrain the development of the Soviet, later Russian energy industry, but acted purely in the logic of political rivalry, not economic competition. Thus, in the foreseeable future the United States is unlikely to abandon its attempts to politicize and discredit Russia as an energy supplier to Europe and other regions of the world.
Influence of Energy Factor on International Relations System of Latin America in the 21st century
摘要
Relation between oil trade and political regimes, climate change and problems of managing natural resources, mining technologies and fighting corruption and many others constitute the phenomenon of a multicomponent energy policy, the study of which is located at the intersection of natural and social sciences. Latin American region has large hydrocarbon reserves, huge hydropower potential, as well as significant opportunities to generate wind and solar energy. Historically, Latin America has occupied a small share of world energy production - about 5 %, where Venezuela, Mexico and Brazil have long been the only players of a global level. However, in the 21st century, factors such as the discovery of pre-salt oil deposits in Brazil, promising forecasts for the development of alternative gas sources in Argentina and the opening of Mexican oil industry for foreign companies after more than seventy years of the monopoly of Pemex, gave an additional impetus to the development of oil and gas industries of the region. The close relationship between energy industry and political context of a number of Latin American countries makes the region’s energy market less predictable, as changes cannot be predicted using standard industry analysis tools. This article analyzes the most significant episodes of political intervention - external or internal - to the energy industry in the 21st century, as well as the impact that events and decisions in this industry had on the regional policy. The authors analyze distinctive examples of the interconnectedness of these areas, from the “resource diplomacy” of Venezuela to the decisive actions of A.M. Lopez Obrador in Mexican energy in the first months of his presidency, and draw parallels between the chains of events in politics and energy. As the cases of Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, and Venezuela, cited in the article, show, the cost of error becomes extremely high when its consequences can destabilize both sectors due to their close interweaving.
Construction of Nuclear Power Plants in the Middle East with the Participation of Russian Companies in the Context of Improving the Region’s Energy Security
摘要
This article examines the current state of nuclear power in the Middle East. The construction of nuclear power plants is closely related to the issues of energy security in the region. The necessity and prerequisites for diversification of the energy balance in the countries of the region, as well as the need for a reliable source of electricity, which will completely solve the problem of growing demand, are analyzed. The authors analyze the role of the Russian Federation in the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East and assess the prospects in the market of services in this sector, consider cooperation in the nuclear sector with all states of the region, identify the advantages and prospects of Russia’s possible participation in the implementation of nuclear power plant construction projects in the Middle East. The most promising direction for the development of nuclear energy today is the use of fast neutron technology and a closed cycle that allows the processing of spent nuclear fuel. The possession of such technologies has a significant potential for export and international cooperation and is a significant technological advantage of Russia. Rosatom group has competitive advantages in the market of nuclear technologies, including in the Middle East, as it has competencies in all parts of the production and technological chain of nuclear energy. The Russian Federation participates in many projects related to the construction of nuclear power plants and related infrastructure and plays a significant role in the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East, cooperates with all countries in the region that are promising for cooperation in this direction, having intergovernmental agreements, which include the construction of nuclear power plants with such States as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and memorandums of cooperation with Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman.
Participation of Russia in the International Cooperation for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Energy Companies
摘要
The article analyzes the participation of the Russian Federation in international cooperation on the climate change prevention. Global climate change in terms of its impact on world economy is presented as a catalyst for multidirectional shifts in many sectors of economy. The adoption of international documents such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the Paris Agreement (2015), and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2015) are viewed as vital steps for regulating international cooperation in this sphere. Analyzing the provisions of the 2020 Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (2009), the authors emphasize the aspiration for international political and economic integration and deep economic interest in modernization as main factors, affecting Russian climate policy strategy. One of the mechanisms of implementing state policy in the field of environmental safety is the adoption of state regulation of greenhouse gas emissions and the consideration of these measures in the development of longterm strategies for socio-economic development. The authors urge for creating regional strategies for climate change prevention with necessary adjustment and adaptation to a specific region or constituent entity of the Russian Federation. In presenting the research results, the concept of “global warming potential” and the role of managing this potential in achieving sustainable development goals are disclosed. The authors argue that a significant contribution to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions is made by the production activities of the energy sector. Based on the data of the largest international companies (Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, BP, PetroChina, Shell, Gazprom, LUKOIL, Rosneft), directions for reducing their negative environmental impact were determined, including the classification of tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. International practice analysis forms the necessary ground to elaborate the most promising modern tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by Russian oil and gas companies.
Great Powers’ Competition in the Arctic: Geopolitical Rivalry in the New Political Space
摘要
For the past few decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced a rapid reduction in both the extent and amount of sea ice. These events, caused by global temperature increase, opened previously inaccessible sea shipping lanes and made possible the extraction of natural resources from deposits previously inaccessible. Such changes entailed an increase in the activity of states both belonging to the Arctic region and those outside it - this led to a gradual increase in rivalry between the leading powers for the development of resources in the Arctic and for the control of shipping routes. The author points out that in the Arctic, unlike other regions, a unique situation has developed due to the interdependence of all actors, which is associated with the special environmental conditions and the commonality of both economic and public interests. The author analyzes the way how the great powers interaction affects the Arctic region. Using the example of the growing Russian-American rivalry being key for the Arctic, the author stresses a softening effect of the institutional regional base. Against this background, the level of interest of another leading power in this region - the PRC - is also growing. Unlike the Russian Federation and the USA, China adheres to the non-confrontational path in the Arctic region, advocating peace and stability strategy, which is associated mainly with the natural resource potential of the Arctic and the possibilities of using the Northern Sea Route. As a result, the rivalry of states in the northern latitudes can be described in terms of the Cold War competition on a regional scale.
世界和安全
Multipolar World Order: Old Myths and New Realities
摘要
The concept of multipolarity has come a long way from its categorical rejection by Western politicians and scholars to the strong necessity of taking into account the realities of a multipolar world even by US closest allies. The article is devoted to the analysis of the official discourse, normative and positive concepts of the study of polarity, including system models of international relations, an empirical assessment of the current distribution of power in the world, as well as forecasting the further development of world dynamics. An analysis of the political discourse on polarity over the past 25 years is made and the most significant political figures are highlighted - defenders of multipolarity (BRICS and EU countries) as well as adherents of the unipolar world (NATO countries). The basic theories (mainly of a normative nature) that conceptualize both unipolar discourse (hegemonic stability theory) and multipolar one (theory of multipolar world) are shown. The intellectual segregation between two main approaches to the study of international systems is provided - abstract verbal models of systems vs empirical (quantitative) system research. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the real distribution of power in the international arena. The main approaches and related methodological challenges are considered. Analysis of the relative shares of USA, Russia (USSR) and China in world power based on Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) is provided. The assessment of material potential is complemented by a multifactor (more than 30 parameters) comprehensive study of both “hard” and “soft” power of three countries. The main theoretical approaches to the concept of multipolarity are clarified. The empirical analysis revealed the formation of a “new bipolarity” (USA and China) while maintaining the leading role of the Russian Federation in the field of high politics and global security. It is predicted that China is gradually “trying on” the role of a new hegemon and is already less interested in a radical revision of the current world order. The strategic adaptation of the closest US allies to the realities of a multipolar world is shown.
China as an Emerging Actor in Conflict Management: from Non-Interference in Internal Affairs to “Constructive” Engagement
摘要
The need to protect citizens and investments abroad is placing tremendous pressure on China’s traditional foreign policy strategy and noninterference principle. Instability in most of BRI countries form new security conditions, pushing China to be more flexible in engaging in missions it had previously opposed, including political engagement in intrastate conflicts in the developing world. Following the formula “politics is a big economy”, China starts rethinking its security interests. As a result, China has smoothly adopted the transition strategy from non-intervention into internal affairs to a more proactive non-indifference approach, that Chinese academics are describing as “creative” or “constructive” engagement. Many new elements contribute to this new constructive engagement - conceptual narrative, political support, geopolitical competition, growing capacities and new security conditions. The key point of the article is to analyze China’s strategy in defending national interests overseas, including the rescue and peacekeeping operations, mediation, political envoys, etc. The special focus is done on proactive peacekeeping policy of China and its new role in the security environment. Obviously, in future China will follow implementing the overseas missions, including humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, evacuation operations, defense of sea lanes, stabilization operations, peacekeeping and counterterrorism missions. After launching in 2017 its first overseas military base in Djibouti, there is little evidence to predict that in the near future China intends to construct more bases. But nevertheless the geopolitical rivalry with the United States might push China to convert three deep-water ports - Gwadar (Pakistan), Salalah (Oman), and Seychelles ports into naval bases. The degree of the China’s involvement in global security landscape will depend on the level of its responsibility, since Beijing is undergoing through a higher degree of international pressure in order to take more obligations. Responding to overseas security crises through military actions would be mostly shaped by events (case-by-case approach), inspired by political motivations and organized as small-scale and low-intensity missions.
国际经济关系
Assessing the Obstacles of Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa: the Case of IGAD
摘要
双方关系
Belarus - Azerbaijan Relations (2005-2018): between Economy and Search for Political Support
摘要
Belarusian-Azerbaijani relations are characterized by quite gradual development. Initially both republics were not seriously interested in each other. As a result, diplomatic relations were not immediately established. This state of practical affairs determined the lack of research interest in the Belarusian-Azerbaijani dialog. Nevertheless, from time to time the BelarusianAzerbaijani relations influence the economic confrontation between Belarus and Russia. Therefore, the study of this issue becomes relevant, as it helps identifying the real state of cooperation, prospects for its development and problems that Belarus and Azerbaijan may face while developing bilateral relations. The key research focus is on studying different areas of Belarusian-Azerbaijani cooperation and on analyzing the way how the practical results of this area cooperation contribute to solving specific problems faced by the Belarusian and Azerbaijani authorities. Analysis and synthesis are the main methods used for achieving the research goals. The study of specific areas of bilateral cooperation - energy, military, economic, political and others will make it possible to understand the crucial importance of each of the areas. Consideration of the problem as a whole on the basis of the analyzed material will allow finding out the reasons of the specific political decisions and actions. As a conclusion, the author assumes that Azerbaijan’s interest in cooperation with Belarus is mostly based on economic and military considerations. Belarus has helped Azerbaijan in establishing a licensed assembly of civilian equipment, and also sells it military equipment, including the most modern, which the Republic possesses. In its turn, Belarus’ interest in Azerbaijan primarily lies on energy and ideological components, which are tightly interlinked. With Azerbaijani energy carriers, Minsk tried to demonstrate to Moscow that the option of replacement for Russian oil was real. In addition, Belarus could get a loan from Azerbaijan to repay its debt to Russia. This gave the Belarusian President a reason to put relations with Azerbaijan higher than with closer allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which caused distrust of Belarus on the part of some of its members.
Economic Policy in Indonesia and Prospects of Russian-Indonesian Trade and Economic Cooperation
摘要
The article is devoted to the analysis of the current economic situation in Indonesia and the prospects for RussianIndonesian economic cooperation. The author covers the economic development of Indonesia since 1998 Asian economic crisis, the domestic economic agenda and the policy of new President D. Widodo, as well as the history and potential for the further development of trade and economic relations between Russia and Indonesia. The relevance of the research is determined by the increasing role of Indonesia in international politics in the 21st century. Indonesia is the fourth largest country in terms of population, after China, India and the United States. Its economy is 16th in the world and first in ASEAN. It is a member of G20. It is expected that Indonesia will enter the top five largest world economies by 2030. For Russia, the development of relations with the rapidly developing Asian countries is an important element in of its foreign policy strategy of diversifying trading partners and entering the promising markets of developing countries. The main purpose of the article is to analyze current challenges faced by the Indonesian government in implementing new economic policy, to identify promising areas of bilateral cooperation of Russia and Indonesia in the context of anti-Russian sanctions. The article points out the potential of these relations and the mutual benefits for the Russian and Indonesian economy. The author used mainly the historical method, which allows tracing the history of the development of the economic situation in Indonesia and the evolution of Russian-Indonesian relations. While analyzing Indonesia’s domestic economic policy, the key research method has been a comparative analysis, which contributed to summarizing the achievements of Indonesian politics. In conclusion, the author identifies promising areas for further development of Russian-Indonesian trade and economic relations taken into account modern Indonesian economic policy’s need agenda.
政治人士
Donald Trump’s Political and Psychological Profile
摘要
The article presents the summary of the political psychology scientific research, fully corresponding to the academic traditions of the Department of Sociology and Psychology of Politics of Moscow State University. The study was devoted to a political and psychological analysis of the personality traits of populist-type politicians. The objectives of this study included psychological diagnosis and assessment of the personality of US President Donald Trump. A number of general scientific principles were used, including the principle of complexity, systematicity, subjectivity, integrability, reflexivity and optimality. The identification of basic psychological characteristics and the analysis of the most pronounced personality traits of Donald Trump were carried out using a methodology that combines wide research capabilities of of political science, psychology and sociology. The specificity of the research predefined using distant methods of data collection and processing, due to the inaccessibility of the studied personality. The biography method, content analysis and observation method were chosen as guiding. Scientific research concluded with forming a political and psychological profile of the American leader’s personality. According to the typology proposed by R. Ziller, he belongs to the category of “apolitical politician”, which indicates an overestimated self-esteem, nonconformism, and no dependence on the opinions of those around him. In addition, according to the L. Etheredge’s typology of styles of interpersonal relationships, Donald Trump is an extrovert with a high level of dominance. The political behavior of the President of the United States corresponds to the type of “agitator” in accordance with the typologies of G. Lasswell.
学派
Energy Diplomacy in Contemporary World: Less Economy, More Geopolitics. Interview with Stanislav Zhiznin, Russian diplomat, PhD in Economics, Dr. of Science (Economics), Professor of MGIMO-University, President of the Center of Energy Diplomacy and Geopolitics
摘要
国际教育合作
Creation of Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ITER as an Example of International Scientific and Technical Cooperation in Energy Sector
摘要
The article analyses the prospects for the implementation of the largest international scientific and technical project (“mega-science” project) ITER of controlled thermonuclear fusion. With the depletion of fossil fuel reserves, the role of new energy sources, including those that have not yet been developed, is increasing. Due to the extremely high costs and ambitious scientific goals facing the project, its practical implementation and funding are possible in close international scientific and technical cooperation in the energy sector. The role of an international group of seven participants (Russia, the EU, Japan, China, India, the Republic of Korea and the USA) in the creation of laboratory fusion facilities is noted. The choice of a Tokamak-type design for the ITER international reactor being built in France is the recognition of Russian’s decisive role. The article reveals the main parameters of international partnership, the specification of which is carried out on a regular basis at ITER coordination meetings with the participation of representatives of national ITER agencies. The parameters of interaction with scientific institutions of countries that are not members of the consortium are given. The evolution of the project since its launch in 1985 as a joint Soviet-American initiative is shown. Four options for the initial placement of the reactor are considered: in Spain, France, Canada and Japan. The features of the organizational and legal regulation of the international consortium for the management of ITER are disclosed, including the establishment of the ITER International Organization for Thermonuclear Energy for the joint implementation of the ITER project in 2006. The role of the in-kind contribution of countries in international projects in the exchange of unique world-class technologies is discussed. The main goals set by the countries participating in the project and the time horizons for their practical achievement are listed. The parameters of Russia's participation in the project are given, the prospects for further cooperation in this area are evaluated. Particular attention is paid to the peculiarities of the political interaction of the participating countries, as well as to the intermediate results already achieved during the implementation of the ITER project.
Attractiveness Assessment of the American Labour Market for the High Qualified Specialists: A Case of Doctors
摘要
The article describes the migration of highly qualified specialists, using the case of medical workers in the United States. The theory of Kurt Levin and its later modifications, that explain the attractiveness of certain labor markets for workers, serve as a theoretical basis. The study aims at examining a separate area and the reasons for its attractiveness to foreign labor, as well as assessing the prospects for the inflow or outflow of human capital in the medical industry. The American case is of a special research interest due to the national peculiarities of educational programs for medical workers in particular - the duration and the need of confirmation the qualifications by passing the so called qualification exams. The national system of selecting medical personnel for vacant positions throughout the country is also of interest, as it provides for an element of quotas (allocation of a certain number of jobs for foreign labor) and an element of competitiveness (The National Resident Matching Program). Such a combined system allows the state to maintain a balance in the distribution of seats among US citizens and citizens of other states and at the same time strive to attract the best specialists in medicine on an adversarial basis. The study also reveals a pattern in the share of popularity of certain medical specialties among the migratory and non-migratory population, which allows us to draw conclusions about the possibility of a further more or less influx of foreigners into the positions of narrowly targeted doctors. In general, it can be summarized that the analysis of foreign labor on the example of the United States, as well as government measures to stimulate or restrict access by non-residents to this area, is quite significant and in some way useful as a possible strategy to follow for other countries, including the Russian Federation.
Students’ International Academic Mobility in the Context of Internationalization of Higher Education (RUDN University Case)
摘要
The relevance of the research topic is due to the growing role of student mobility as a form of internationalization of higher education in Russia. In recent years higher education has become more widespread and available, influenced by the development and distribution of educational services export and its transformation into a global educational market. In the context of “mass” higher education the special role of Russian education is of special interest for practitioners and researchers in the field of international educational cooperation. The article focuses on academic mobility in the field of higher education based on the experience of RUDN University. The aim of the study is to identify the effective participation of Russia in the global process of education on the example of international academic mobility of students on the basis of a comparative analysis of the works of Russian and foreign researchers. The objectives of the research are to study the best practices and implement the best developments in Russian conditions; to form the infrastructure and institutional basis for the mobility of students and researchers at all levels. Obviously, mobility is an integrative and determinative part of integration processes in the educational field. The article describes the experience of implementing academic mobility on the example of RUDN University using the comparative analysis of statistical data. All-inclusive academic mobility strategy serves as a tool for internationalization of higher education. The problem of competitiveness of Russian higher education in the dimension of internationalization is thoroughly discussed.