Some implications of the changes in the world population distribution: How globalized will the world remain?

Cover Page

Abstract


For the first-world citizens, globalization seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon; however, the global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries. What will the situation be in, let say, fifty years? The article aims to show how the future demographic changes can influence absolute numbers and relative proportions of societies with different levels of global connectivity. To estimate the national rates of global connectivity the authors rely on the countries’ participation in global networks, such as trade in goods, trade in services, foreign direct investment (FDI), and international migration. As the scenario of the demographic future, the authors use medium population projections of 2017 calculated by the United Nations Population Division. The authors applied a two-stage method: first, they constructed network models and analyzed the structure of networks to reveal the positions of countries in order to estimate their rates of global connectivity and identify six groups of countries according to their global connectivity rates. Second, the authors combined the results of network analysis with demographic projections to find out how many people are expected to live in the countries with different connectivity rates in the nearest decades (let say, up to 2050) and in the more distant future (2100). The results show that nearly a half of the world population (3.46 billion) lives in highly-connected countries but the situation will dramatically change in the coming decades. The proportion of population in the highly- and highly-medium-connected countries will decline by 2050 and further by 2100, while the proportion of residents of medium- and low-connected (and to some extent of lowest-low-connected) countries will significantly grow.

About the authors

Yu V Zinkina

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: juliazin@list.ru
Prosp. Vernadskogo, 84, Moscow, Russia, 119571; Leninskie Gory, 1-51, Moscow, 119991, Russia

S G Shulgin

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Email: sergey@shulgin.ru
Prosp. Vernadskogo, 84, Moscow, Russia, 119571

I A Aleshkovski

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: aleshkovski@fgp.msu.ru
Leninskie Gory, 1-51, Moscow, 119991, Russia

A I Andreev

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: andreev@fgp.msu.ru
Leninskie Gory, 1-51, Moscow, 119991, Russia

References

  1. Apt W. Germany's New Security Demographics: Military Recruitment in the Era of Population Aging. Springer Science & Business Media; 2013.
  2. Borgatti SP., Everett MG., Johnson JC. Analyzing Social Networks. Sage Publications; 2013.
  3. Castells M. The Information Age: Economy, Society, and Culture. Vol. I: The Rise of the Network Society, Wiley-Blackwell; 1996.
  4. Castells M. Information Technology, Globalization, and Social Development. Geneva: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development; 1999.
  5. Castells M. The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society, and Culture (Vol. 1). John Wiley & Sons; 2011.
  6. Candau F. Trade, FDI and Migration. International Economic Journal. 2013: 27(3): 441-461.
  7. Chase-Dunn C., Kawano Y., Brewer B. Trade globalization since 1795: Waves of integration in the world-system. American Sociological Review. 2000: 65 (1): 77-95.
  8. Coleman D., Rowthorn R. Who’s afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences. Population and Development Review. 2011: 37 (1): 217-248.
  9. Ernst & Young. Looking beyond the Obvious. Globalization and New Opportunities for Growth. About the 2012 Globalization Index. 2012. http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Driving-growth/Globalization---Looking-beyond-the-obvious---2012-Index.
  10. Goldstone J.A., Kaufmann E.P., Toft M.D. (Eds.). Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. Oxford University Press; 2012.
  11. Goldstone J.A., Marshall M.G., Root H. Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks. International Area Studies Review. 2014: 17 (2): 120-133.
  12. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A.V. Social macroevolution: Growth of the world system integrity and a system of phase transitions. World Futures. 2009: 65 (7): 477-506.
  13. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A.V. Will the global crisis lead to global transformations? 1. The global financial system: Pros and cons. Journal of Globalization Studies. 2010: 1 (1): 70-89.
  14. Kim T., Sciubba J.D. The effect of age structure on the abrogation of military alliances. International Interactions. 2015: 41 (2): 279-308.
  15. Korotayev A., Zinkina Yu. How to optimize fertility and prevent humanitarian catastrophes in Tropical Africa. African Studies in Russia. 2014: 6: 94-107.
  16. Korotayev A., Zinkina Yu. East Africa in the Malthusian trap? Journal of Developing Societies. 2015: 31 (3): 385-420.
  17. Korotayev A., Zinkina Yu., Andreev A. Secular cycles and millennial trends. Cliodynamics. 2016: 7 (2): 204-216.
  18. Korotayev A., Zinkina Yu., Goldstone J., Shulgin S. Explaining current fertility dynamics in Tropical Africa from an anthropological perspective: A cross-cultural investigation. Cross-Cultural Research. 2016: 50 (3): 251-280.
  19. Modelski G. Globalization as evolutionary process. In: Modelski G., Devezas T., Thompson W.R. (Eds.). Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change. London-New York: Routledge; 2008. P. 11-29.
  20. Sciubba J.D. The Future Faces of War. Population and National Security; Santa Barbara: Praeger; 2011.
  21. Shulgin S., Zinkina Yu., Andreev A. Method of analysis of the global trade network structure. Ekonomika i Upravlenie: Provlemy, Resheniya. 2016: 12: 48-56 (In Russ.).
  22. Shulgin S., Zinkina Yu., Andreev A. Measuring globalization: Network approach to countries’ global connectivity rates and their evolution in time. Social Evolution and History. 2018 (forthcoming).
  23. Teitelbaum M.S. Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science. Population Studies. 2015: 69: 87-95.
  24. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp.
  25. United Nations. UN Comtrade Database. 2017. https://comtrade.un.org.
  26. United Nations. International Migrant Stock by Destination and Origin. 2015.
  27. Weiner M., Russell S.S. (Eds.). Demography and National Security. Berghahn Books; 2001.
  28. World Bank. Trade in Services Database. 2017 https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/trade-in-services.
  29. Yoshihara S., Sylva D.A. (Eds). Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics. Potomac Books; 2012.
  30. Zinkina Yu., Korotayev A. Explosive population growth in tropical Africa: Crucial omission in development forecasts - emerging risks and way out. World Futures. 2014: 70 (2): 120-139.
  31. Zinkina Yu., Korotayev A. Projecting Mozambique’s demographic futures. Journal of Futures Studies. 2014: 19 (2): 21-40.
  32. Zinkina Yu., Korotayev A., Andreev A. Measuring globalization: Existing methods and their implications for teaching global studies and forecasting. Campus-Wide Information Systems. 2013: 30 (5): 321-339.

Statistics

Views

Abstract - 3544

PDF (English) - 394

Cited-By


PlumX

Dimensions


Copyright (c) 2018 Zinkina Y.V., Shulgin S.G., Aleshkovski I.A., Andreev A.I.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies