Vol 22, No 3 (2020)

Article analyzes predictive estimates and concepts presented by the Western intellectual community, regarding prospects for development of new trends in the global economy, caused by the fourth industrial revolution. Author draws on a variety of sources, including reports from US think tanks, works by representatives of global financial and technocratic elite, and works by American intellectuals. Methodological basis of the study is a theory of the world system of I. Wallerstein, which allows to identify dynamic and conflicting lines of interaction between two geopolitical centers of the world - the United States and China. Based on an analysis of current trends, modern experts predict revolutionary changes in modern technologies that can decisively affect socio-political stability, not only in Western countries, but in developing countries as well. Author shows that the new technological structure is changing not only sector structure of the economy, but also has a strong impact on employment. According to American analysts, new technologies can destabilize socio-political stability in any country, especially in countries where cheap labor is a traditional tool. Robotization and automation of production can become a competitive advantage of the United States and Western countries in competition with China. Article notes that Russia is only at the very beginning of technological revolution, behind “big five” leading countries. Overcoming its lag in the field of AI and robotics requires adoption of comprehensive measures of economic, scientific and political nature. Ignoring realities of technological progress is fraught with increase in threats to national security.

Among modern studies on the phenomenon of migration, of particular interest is the work studying and analyzing educational migration as one of the most popular and promising areas of migration. Despite numerous work devoted to the issue of educational migration, latter still remains the least studied migration category. In order to identify current trends and patterns of international educational migration and to trace development of theoretical constructions explaining migration process, author has conducted an analysis of more than 60 scientific publications (both theoretical and empirical studies) of foreign authors on the issues of consideration. Analysis of publications was carried out in context of a critical review of scientific theories and research concepts on educational migration. As the main theories, neoclassical theories of migration of macro (the concept of Push-Pull factors) and micro (the theory of human capital) level, transnational theory and theory of global knowledge were considered. As a result, author notes that educational migration studies are mostly aimed at studying economic aspects of migration, determinants and causes of migration, issue of highly qualified migration, processes of integration and adaptation of foreign students, new directions of student migration, transnational spaces and social migrant networks etc. Publications on the values and axiological aspects of educational migration are much less common. To sum up, based on results of the study, article reveals that vectors of educational migration studies are shaped by transformation occurring in the world and in the global educational environment that directly affects the nature of student migration flows.

The political prospects of migrants in Russia are not only an urgent problem, but also require a comprehensive scientific analysis based on the achievements of modern political science. For this reason, the paper attempts to provide scientific and methodological justification and research on the participation of migrants in future political processes. Based on migration dynamics and features of migration behavior, a model-hypothesis - variants and scenarios of political participation of migrants in Russia has been developed. The model includes the following elements: personal and group strategies for the migration future; the trajectory and nature of political participation of migrants; ideological preferences and political attitudes; the content of the political culture of the migration community; the target expectations of migrants in the political sphere; the level of involvement of migrants in civil society institutions; the level of political activity of migrants and leaders of the migration community; the readiness of indigenous people to allow migrants to political processes; the position of the state and government institutions to political claims from migrants. Thus, based on the methodology of contextual instrumentalism, the methodological basis of the political forecast of the future of migrants in Russia is presented, taking into account the basic migration factors and trends, and the main directions of scientific search for ways to verify the formulated hypothesis are also identified.

In this article, the author analyzes the structure and models of research-policy dialogues and identifies the conceptual emphasis of these interactions in the decision-making process in the scope of migrants’ integration policy in the Russian Federation. State authorities at all levels are making significant efforts to develop research and knowledge accumulation. Research-policy dialogues are important for the effective and the efficient development of migrants’ integration policy. The relevance of research-policy dialogues is determined by the need to use knowledge for various purposes by the state authorities: to provide a conceptual basis for political decisions in the field of migration policy, to develop tools and indexes for measuring integration policy, or to monitor and to evaluate the implemented policy. The author of the article analyzed the institutional forms of the research-policy dialogues in the field of migrant integration policy in the Russian Federation, studied communication channels in the framework of the St. Petersburg International Labor Forum (2018-2020), and analyzed the knowledge production process in this case using the network approach. The author considered the main research topics in the field of migration policy based on the data from the Unified Information System of Government Procurement (2016-2020), which allowed studying the functions of knowledge and the directions of its use. The author of the article concluded that the request for the mutual learning model of research-policy dialogues is just beginning to emerge in the Russian Federation. The most frequent models of dialogues are bureaucratic and consultancy, which require the use of knowledge in order to ensure legitimizing and substantiating functions.

The article reveals the relationship between the political crises that affected the European Union from 2015 to 2020, and the growing sympathy of voters for populist-Eurosceptic parties. Particular attention is paid to the political situation in Austria, where in 2017-2019. The government included right-wing populists, as well as the results of the European Parliament elections in May 2019, which testify to the strengthening of the position of a new populism, especially the right-wing one, represented by the Eurosceptics group “Identity and Democracy”. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current state of the right-wing populist parties and to describe the current patterns of their development in terms of political prospects and the impact on the internal politics of the EU member states. The following research questions are formulated: 1. “Has the influence of right-wing populist parties intensified or waned during the migration crisis?” 2. “Do right-wing populists constitute a coherent pan-European political force?” 3. “What is the specificity of Italian, Austrian and German right-wing populists?”. To answer these questions, a quantitative (first of all, thematic literature and publications in the media) and quantitative analysis (dynamics of relevant statistical information was evaluated). As a result of the study, the authors come to the following conclusions: 1. The entry of the Austrian right-wing populists (APS) into a coalition with S. Kurtz in 2017-2019. - This is part of the regular fluctuations in the balance of power between the three political “camps” inside Austria, and not a sharp turnaround in established political models (right turn). 2. The German right-wing populists, on the contrary, despite local and really sudden successes (AdG), are in systemic isolation. 3. In Italy, right-wing populists have made significant progress, but the prospects for their unity with other European new right-wingers remain controversial. 4. With some caution, it can be stated that the period 2017-2019, was successful for right-wing populists. The recognition of the right-wing populist parties, their media coverage and presence in government has increased markedly. The perception of the importance of migration themes and cultural identity has increased in comparison with the first half of the 2010s. Moreover, in 2020. this trend is beginning to decline, the themes of culture and migration are gradually giving way to topics of safety, health and the environment.

Article examines specifics of French model of integration of immigrants, as well as the evolution of integration practices. It is shown that integration model was based initially on principles of assimilation, and ethnic and religious identity of the migrants was not taken into account. It is established that current model of integration does not require cultural unification, but does not allow institutionalization of immigrant communities as representatives of interests of migrants. Author concludes that the reasons for re-Islamization, which mainly affected second and third generation of migrants, were structural transformations in economy, as well as an increase in the number and geography of migration flows. Article analyzes factors that contributed to formation and spread of ethno-religious communities in the country, as well as driving forces that led to the rise of Islamist radicalism and surge of terrorist acts. Special attention is given to the problem of interaction of a secular, democratic state and society with Islam, a significant part of whose adherents belong to different socio-cultural paradigm than the indigenous population. Author focuses on current political initiatives of President Macron, to demarginalize urban suburbs, as well as measures taken to structure Islam in France and counter Islamist radicalism. In this research, author uses a political and cultural approach that integrates methods of sociology, socioculturology, psychology, which makes it possible to study socio-cultural dimension of politics, symbolic aspect of public life, as well as restores the role and significance of human person as the main actor in political process.

This paper tackles the issue of analyst bias in performance of comparative political analyses on political discourse, by leveraging data and machine-learning over human prior knowledge. The case studied is characterization of the issue of migration in the Croatian political discourse, which was chosen arbitrarily. We developed a machine-learning system that identifies most prominent features in the Croatian political discourse, with regards to migration and were interested solo in comparative political analysis in political science. This system does not rely on human judgement on the part of the researchers, and can be thus considered to be “objective”, short of possible sampling or selection bias. It is replicable. If provided, the same dataset and algorithm used, same conclusions should be reached by any scientist. This result was achieved by creating a text corpus from news items and press releases extracted from the websites of Croatian political parties currently represented in the Parliament. Available and collected data consist of public announcements mainly from IDS (Istarski Demokratski Sabor / Istrian Democratic Assambly), SDSS (Samostalna Demokratska Srpska Stranka / Independed Democratic Serb Party) and HSLS (Hrvatska Socijalno Liberalna Stranka / Croatian Social Liberal Party). Data analyzed suggests three dominant phrases of the research process. All political parties had similar political stand towards pointed out issues. Three most significant phrases were determined. First phrase is related to words “Demography” and “Reduction” and finding suggest that most analyzed articles relates towards migration of Croatian citizens in connection to economic hardships of some kind. Phrase two is related to words “Border” and “Croatia-Serbia” which strongly indicates relation to migration and is related towards inter-Balkan migration, mostly connected with consequences of the Croatian War of Independence from 1990’s, and is of most interest to SDSS, a Serb minority party in Croatia. Phrase three is related towards Marrakesh Agreement (Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration), where most of analyzed data shows that parties have a constructive but ambivalent stance towards migration from the third countries. Research conducted on available data, shows that wide spread international migration is not in the focus of most Croatian political parties, while topics and interest for inter-Balkan and Croatian economic/political migration dominates Croatian political spectre