Between Peace and Conflict: The Middle East After the Abraham Accords

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Introduction

The year 2020 can be described as a period of hope for the normalization of relations between the Arab world and Israel, if not a turning point in the Arab-Israeli confrontation. It has been a very productive year for Israel in terms of building relations with Arab  countries — at least in terms of establishing a legal framework: four of the six existing normalization treaties were signed during this year. Two others were concluded between Israel and Egypt in 1979 and Israel and Jordan in 1994 (Gasratyan, 2015, p. 156). The four new Arab countries that normalized relations with Israel were the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

It is of interest to identify the main reasons that pushed both the U.S. and Israel, as well as the Arab countries, to take such decisive steps. Given the traditional Arab support for the Palestinians, the normalization of relations with Israel could significantly undermine the established pan-Arab consensus on this issue. In addition, the article examines the reaction of the Arab countries that joined the Abraham Accords to the escalation of the situation in the Gaza Strip in October 2023.

All this will make it possible to get closer to achieving the goal of the study: to examine the motives behind the Arab states’ rapprochement with Israel, to assess their interest in establishing relations with Israel through active US mediation, and to determine how durable the Abraham Accords will be against the backdrop of the escalation in the Gaza Strip.

Considering the fact that the key actors of the analyzed events are states, the author bases his study mainly on the realist theory of international relations. It should be emphasized that the conclusion of these agreements on the normalization of relations with Israel plays a key role in redefining the regional balance of power, as it not only changes the mutual relations between the signatory countries, but also influences the strategic dynamics in the Middle East region, creating new geopolitical realities and causing a rethinking of traditional alliances and animosities. In addition, the author uses historical and systematic research methods to analyze the developments that led to the signing of the Abrahamic Accords and to assess their impact on the Middle East region and international relations in general.

In analyzing sources of information, it was important for the author to pay close attention primarily to official documents and treaties, as well as public statements by official representatives of the parties. The author draws on the literature to understand the long-term trends and policy vectors of Middle Eastern states.

Reasons for Normalizing Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries

On September 15, 2020, a solemn ceremony was held in Washington, DC to sign agreements on the normalization of relations between Israel, on the one hand, and the UAE and Bahrain, on the other, with the active mediation of the United States.¹ The agreements were signed on the Israeli side by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and on the Arab side by the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Bahrain Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani. The United States was represented by President Donald Trump (2017–2021). A set of documents were signed during the ceremony:

1. “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel”²;
2. “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations” between Israel and Bahrain³;
3. The general “Abraham Accords Declaration”, which was named after the patriarch of the three major monotheistic religions of the world: Judaism, Christianity and Islam.⁴

The Israeli-Emirati and Israeli-Bahraini documents have different titles: by customary practice, the “Treaty” suggests a deeper engagement than the “Declaration”. The text of the treaty between Israel and the UAE appears more elaborate and detailed (Singer, 2021,  p. 450). One reason for this differentiation may be the fact that Bahrain finally declared its intention to normalize relations with Israel less than a week before the signing ceremony in Washington. The US President signed all the documents, naming the event a “turning point” in the history of the development of the Middle East settlement, which the Israeli side also agreed with, expressing the hope that eventually these positive shifts — at least in the vision of the parties — would lead to the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict (Guzansky & Zachary, 2020,  p. 379). The normalization of relations implies cooperation between Israel and the Arab states in a wide range of areas, from energy, economy, health and tourism to the military sphere.

A key condition of the agreement was freezing the construction of Jewish settlements in the occupied territory of the West Bank, which Benjamin Netanyahu had promised as early as the parliamentary elections in 2020 and which was reflected in the so-called “deal of the century” (Karasova, 2023, p. 85). Officially,  the document is called “Peace for Prosperity.  A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People.”⁵ It is an essentially  pro-Israeli initiative put forward by the U.S., which has provoked very mixed reactions, also because the Palestinian side was not involved in drafting the document (Melnikova, 2020, p. 31). Stopping settlement construction does not, however, imply Israel’s withdrawal from the previously occupied territories (Kshevitskaia, 2021, p. 164).

The UAE

The shift in Israeli-Emirati relations is seen as the most tangible. The UAE public welcomed the conclusion of the Abraham Accords (Hitman & Zwilling, 2022, p. 440). For the UAE, the agreement opens many new opportunities domestically and potentially beyond (Khan & Shahzad, 2021, p.182). The benefits to the UAE after signing the treaty with Israel demonstrate the US interest in normalizing relations between Arab countries and Israel (Melkumyan, 2021, p. 114).

The normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE under the Abraham Accords has strengthened political, economic and regional interaction in the Middle East. This agreement, which followed decades of covert interaction, led to open diplomatic ties, commercial opportunities, and technology exchange (Maher, 2022, p. 1). Changing US security priorities played an important role in this process. Events such as the Baghdad Summits, the March 2022 Negev Summit, and the Israel — Lebanon Maritime Agreement have contributed to increased regional interaction and conflict de-escalation (Vakil & Quilliam, 2023, p. 2).

Since the normalization of relations, the UAE and Israel have developed close economic ties (Varnavskii, 2022, p. 77). The volume of bilateral trade between the two countries has exceeded 6 billion USD since 2020.⁶ For example, in 2021, the volume of bilateral trade reached 1.154 billion USD, which is very significant for the first year of the agreement. In the context of these economic achievements, Israel and the UAE signed a free trade agreement in May 2022, which provides for the exemption of 96% of goods from customs duties and is expected to increase trade between the countries to 10 billion USD within five years.⁷ In addition, Israeli tourists are actively visiting hotels, beaches and shopping centers in the UAE (Egel, Efron & Robinson, 2021, p. 3).

The UAE’s agreement with Israel also implied military cooperation, particularly with the U.S. The UAE expected that once relations normalized, it could purchase the US F-35 fighter jets and MQ-9 Reaper drones. Despite the Trump administration’s push for the sale of the F-35 and Reaper, complex negotiations over the transfer of key components and the US doubts about the safety of its technology amid the UAE’s evolving relations with China have stalled the process. This led to the UAE’s announcement that it would not purchase the aircraft (Feierstein & Guzansky, 2023, p. 3).

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas that started in October 2023 in the Gaza Strip has had a significant impact on the  UAE — Israel relations. However, despite international outrage and the growing number of victims of the conflict, the UAE plans to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. This decision was driven by the UAE’s desire to exert a moderating influence on the Israeli campaign while protecting its own interests. As an important regional actor and security partner of the U.S., the UAE has expressed its position through official condemnations of Israeli actions and calls for an end to violence. The UAE maintains the presence of an Israeli ambassador on its soil, indicating a desire for a long-term strategic relationship with Israel. In addition, the motivation for continued cooperation was the shared concerns about the threat posed by Iran, as well as the economic reorientation of Abu Dhabi’s foreign policy.

Bahrain

The pragmatic benefits of bilateral cooperation have played an important role in the development of Bahrain’s relations with Israel. These benefits cover a wide range of areas, including defense and security, where partnership with the Jewish state offers new opportunities for enhancing regional stability. In this context, the “Abraham Accords” were the key mechanism that allowed both countries to formally establish diplomatic relations and expand cooperation. This cooperation proves to be particularly significant against the backdrop of general concerns about Iran’s actions in the region, emphasizing the strategic importance of these new diplomatic ties for Bahrain.⁸

In March 2021, Bahrain appointed its first ambassador to Israel, marking a landmark in the two countries’ relations.⁹ In September 2021, Israel opened its embassy in Manama, and in September 2023, the Israeli foreign minister visited Manama to officially open the new embassy, which replaced the previous one.¹⁰ Both Bahrain and Israel have sought to expand economic ties. In September 2023, the Israeli foreign minister and his Bahraini counterpart signed an agreement aimed at boosting tourism, increasing direct flights, and strengthening trade and investment ties. Accompanied by a delegation of businessmen, the minister noted the active participation of Israeli companies in high-tech and logistics projects in Bahrain.¹¹

When analyzing the prospects and development of trade and economic relations between Israel and Bahrain, several key aspects need to be taken into account. First, the total volume of trade between the countries is relatively modest, and Manama’s economic capabilities are inferior to those of the UAE. Second, the economies of Israel and Bahrain are less complementary, with the latter lagging far behind in technological development. Third, unlike the UAE, has been tacitly trading with the Jewish state since the 2000s, Bahrain has not yet had informal economic ties with Israel, forcing the countries to start the relationship from scratch (Krylov, Fedorchenko & Maryasis, 2022, p. 143). In addition, internal political tensions in Bahrain, especially among the Shi‘a segment of the population, which often expresses dissatisfaction with the ruling government, limit the ability of political and economic elites to establish new relations.¹²

The analysis of the Bahraini-Israeli normalization leads us to conclude that despite the significant progress in the relations between the two states since the signing of the Abraham Accords, the escalation in the Gaza Strip in October 2023 had a negative impact on them. In November 2023, against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Bahraini parliament announced the return of its ambassador from Israel and the withdrawal of the Israeli ambassador from Bahrain.¹³ It also announced the suspension of all economic relations with Israel, reflecting Bahrain’s “firm and historic position” in support of the Palestinian cause and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. The announcement was made by the Bahraini Parliament, while Israel stated that it had received no official notification of such decisions.¹⁴

Morocco

Another Arab state that decided in 2020 to establish official contacts with Israel through the US mediation was Morocco. On December 22, 2020, Morocco, Israel and the U.S. signed a joint tripartite declaration on the normalization of relations.¹⁵ The Israeli Prime Minister welcomed the restoration of relations and announced the resumption of direct flights between Israel and Morocco. The first direct flight took place on December 22, 2020, when a joint Israeli-American delegation led by Jared Kushner and the head of the Jewish state’s National Security Council, Meir Ben‑Shabbat, arrived in Rabat from Tel Aviv (Pásztor, 2022, p. 8).

The parties signed four agreements: visa waiver for holders of official and diplomatic passports, memoranda of understanding on civil aviation, on innovation and water resources development, and on financial and investment cooperation.¹⁶ Potential military cooperation and, in the case of Morocco, should be seen as an important incentive for normalizing relations with Israel. Omer Dostri from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security pointed out in an interview that Israeli and Moroccan security cooperation encompasses intelligence cooperation, joint military exercises and arms trade.¹⁷ The Israeli military has participated in the US African Lion exercise in Morocco, and the Moroccans have bought Israeli drones and air defense systems, with interest in armored vehicles and cyber security.¹⁸ In February 2022, Morocco signed an agreement to promote bilateral trade and cooperation, including customs benefits and increased trade ties (Feierstein & Guzansky, 2023, p. 4).

For Morocco, the decision to sign the Abraham Accords was accompanied by specific commitments from the United States. The Moroccans counted on Washington to recognize their sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara, hoping that this would resolve the impasse in their claims. As a result, in December 2022 Donald Trump signed an executive order recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara which contributed to the normalization of the relations between Israel and Morocco.¹⁹ However, after this recognition, only Israel followed the US lead in July 2023.²⁰ The UN continues to regard the Western Sahara region as a “non-self-governing territory” while the International Court of Justice has recognized Morocco’s attempts to annex Western Sahara as illegal. Israeli recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory opened the door to a significant expansion of bilateral military cooperation, including the appointment of Israel’s first military attaché in Rabat (Liokumovich & Akhmatshina, 2022, p. 65).

Morocco has taken a cautious stance on the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023. The country has maintained a moderate tone in official statements, condemning attacks on civilians and calling for an immediate ceasefire and the protection of civilians and humanitarian access.²¹ Despite the evolution of the situation and its complexity, Morocco has avoided blaming any particular party to the conflict. This approach is evident in Morocco’s constant response to evolving events, where terminology and expressions  are adapted to the changing context (Saddiki, 2023, p. 4).

Sudan

Over the years, Sudan has been known for its position of refusing to recognize Israel. This was most evident in 1967 at the Khartoum Conference of the Arab League, where the “Three No’s” were declared: no peace with Israel, no negotiations with Israel, no recognition of Israel.²² This declaration effectively meant non-recognition of Israel’s right to exist, implying that a war could be the only way to resolve the conflict.

However, there have been significant changes in recent years (Kosach, 2021, p. 66). In 2020, Sudan declared its desire to join the “Abraham Accords”, which aims to normalize relations with Israel (Mazzucco & Alexander, 2022, p. 2). This development was formalized in 2021.²³ For Sudan, it seems that the main incentive for signing the declaration was the desire to get off the White House’s list of “state sponsors of terrorism” and to escape the US sanctions, which would increase its international legitimacy (Makovsky et al., 2022, p. 7). In October 2020 D. Trump signed an executive order that Sudan was no longer considered a state sponsor of terrorism.²⁴ The U.S., for its part, demanded that Sudan compensate the losses of the US citizens who were victims of terrorist attacks organized by the terrorist group Al-Qaeda²⁵ and their families. This refers to the 1998 terrorist attacks in Kenya and Tanzania, which were organized by Usama bin Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda, who was living in Sudan at that time. Sudan transferred the sum of 335 million USD in October 2020.²⁶

Nevertheless, internal unrest and political instability between the civilian and military authorities in Sudan slowed down the normalization process and relations temporarily froze. Sudan lagged behind other countries that had joined the agreements, especially in the context of participation in the Negev Forum, which was established under the leadership of Joe Biden to deepen regional ties.

The situation in Sudan worsened after a military coup in 2021, which thwarted attempts at a democratic transition following the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir.²⁷ Despite internal difficulties, talks on normalizing relations  with Israel continued. In February 2023,  Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Sudan, where he met with President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The visit initiated an agreement to normalize relations, underlining Israel’s desire for peace with Arab and  Muslim countries.²⁸ Cohen made a reference to the Khartoum Resolution of 1967 in his statement: “We are now building a new reality with Sudan, in which the Three No’s will become Three Yes’s: yes to negotiations between Israel and Sudan, yes to recognition of Israel, yes to peace between states and peoples.”²⁹

Sudan has expressed support for the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to establish their own independent state. However, the country’s internal civil war is taking up too many resources and attention, preventing Sudan from actively engaging in international politics or making more detailed statements on the issue.³⁰ Furthermore, in October 2023, Sudan and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations, which had been cut off in early 2016 due to Iranian interference in Sudan’s internal affairs.³¹ The move was not welcomed by Israel, which has traditionally viewed Iran as its main regional adversary. The restoration of relations between Sudan and Iran could be perceived as strengthening Iran’s position in the Arab world, which raises concerns in Israel about Iran’s increasing influence in the region and the potential deterioration of Israel’s security.

The Palestinian Situation Against  the Backdrop of the Abraham Accords

In the Arab world, these events caused mixed reactions and, to a certain extent, discontent: first of all, among the Palestinians, who considered it a tragedy for the entire Arab world, since it was initially assumed that Israel would recognize the independence of the Palestinians, and only after that would it be possible to have a dialogue on the normalization of relations (Trigano, 2021, p. 12). However, in fact, Israel began to gain recognition in the region without making any concessions on  its part.³²

Such a forced normalization of relations between the Arab states and Israel seems highly undesirable for the Palestinians (Ian, 2019,  p. 36). The signed documents delay the process of real conflict resolution between Israel and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), making it less and less likely that Israel will recognize the existence of the state of Palestine (Gudkova, 2022, p. 75). The PNA considers September 15, 2020 as a “black day” in the history of the Palestinian people.³³ And the events in the Gaza Strip, which began in October 2023, have only strengthened the Palestinian belief in Israel’s hostile nature.

Moreover, the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations undermines the position of the PNA leadership within its territory. After the conclusion of the Abraham Accords, a sociological survey was conducted in the PNA, which showed that despite the obvious anti-Israeli sentiment (86% of Palestinians believe that the Abraham Accords are only beneficial to Israel), over 60% of respondents consider the very fact of concluding such agreements  a “failure” of Palestinian foreign policy and diplomacy.³⁴

Conclusion

The normalization of relations between the Arab countries and Israel reflects a change in regional policy: the rejection of the settlement of the Middle East conflict on the basis  of traditional UN approaches in favor  of economic interests and security cooperation. At the same time, the active role of the U.S.  in this process, as an organizer rather than a mediator, indicates that it is the prospects  of cooperation with the U.S., rather than directly with Israel, that has become the key incentive for the Arab countries. In turn, the U.S. seeks to strengthen its military and political ties in the region and maintain its influence and presence.

The outbreak of violence in the Gaza Strip in October 2023 has caused some tension in Israel’s relations with Arab countries. Nevertheless, in the case of the UAE, both sides continue to demonstrate a willingness to maintain and develop cooperation based on strategic and economic interests. In the case of Bahrain, the significant gains in bilateral relations with Israel now face new challenges due to developments in Gaza. This tension could complicate future cooperation given the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict. At the same time, Morocco, which has entered into a  number of agreements with Israel, often mediated by the U.S., faces a difficult choice. The termination of relations with Israel could seriously affect Morocco’s obligations and interests under these agreements, so the Kingdom of Morocco is taking a cautious stance in this conflict and seeking to balance its obligations and regional security. Finally, Sudan, which is experiencing internal political turmoil, is at the intersection of various international and regional influences.

After the events in Gaza the Abraham Accords have become a historical past and  are unlikely to be revived in the near future.  These agreements have lost their relevance. Certainly, a possible peace between Israel and Hamas and the subsequent achievement of stability and security in the region are  key factors that could give a second breath to Israel’s existing diplomatic relations with Arab countries, as well as attract new participants  to the Abraham Accords. In addition,  the international community, in particular the Arab signatory states to the aforementioned agreements, can have a significant impact  on the course of the negotiations between  Israel and Hamas, and on shaping the future regional balance of power. This creates a complex mosaic of interactions and interdependencies in which any development could have long-term implications for the entire Middle East.

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_{²⁵ Hereinafter, an organization included in the list of terrorist organizations in the Russian Federation is mentioned.}

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About the authors

Hasan P. Abdullayev

Author for correspondence.
Email: gasan.abdullaev.97@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0608-7026
SPIN-code: 7418-1330

Postgraduate Student, Department of Oriental Studies

References