Between Peace and Conflict: The Middle East After the Abraham Accords
- 作者: Abdullayev H.P.1
-
隶属关系:
- MGIMO University
- 期: 卷 24, 编号 1 (2024): International and Regional Studies: From Theory to Practice
- 页面: 40-50
- 栏目: THEMATIC DOSSIER
- URL: https://journals.rudn.ru/international-relations/article/view/38466
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2024-24-1-40-50
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/ENZYFW
如何引用文章
详细
In 2020, four Arab states - Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco - took their first steps toward normalizing relations with Israel with the active US support. This research is an attempt to identify the main incentives which made the Arab states act the way they did, as well as to analyze the situation of the Palestinians amidst the strengthening of relations between Israel and the Arab world. The author also examines how the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023, has affected the established diplomatic, economic, and military ties between the Jewish state and the Arab countries which signed the Abraham Accords. The study concludes that one of the main incentives for Arab states to normalize relations with Israel is the desire to deepen military and technical cooperation with the U.S. At the same time, it would be far-fetched to consider the normalization of relations between the four states and Israel as a step toward regional stabilization, given the reaction of the Palestinians and other Middle Eastern states to the agreements embraced. The reaction reflects the failure to find a common approach to the Middle East peace process as well as the fact that there is no region-widely shared view on shaping a new regional architecture. In this context, it is worth highlighting the situation of the Palestinians, for whom these agreements were a stab in the back and created unfavorable conditions for the establishment of a full-fledged state of Palestine. The study also emphasizes that the future of the “Abraham Accords” and the possibility of their expansion will depend on the development of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as on the readiness of the parties to reach a long-term peaceful settlement. The continuation of the conflict in Gaza would seriously undermine Israel’s image in the Arab world and would certainly undermine the fundamental principles of the Abraham Accords, which would diminish the importance of these agreements. This study offers a valuable perspective on the complex and dynamic relationships in the Middle East region and contributes to understanding the motives and consequences of recent geopolitical changes.
作者简介
Hasan Abdullayev
MGIMO University
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: gasan.abdullaev.97@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0608-7026
SPIN 代码: 7418-1330
Postgraduate Student, Department of Oriental Studies
Moscow, Russian Federation参考
- Egel, D., Efron, S., & Robinson, L. (2021). Peace dividend: Widening the economic growth and development benefits of the Abraham Accords. RAND Corporation, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.7249/pea1149-1
- Feierstein, G. M., & Guzansky, Y. (2023). A mixed report card: The Abraham Accords at three. Middle East Institute, 1-10. Retrieved from https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/A%20mixed%20report%20card% 20The%20Abraham%20Accords%20at%20three.pdf
- Gasratyan, S. M. (2015). Israel and Jordan: Partners by necessity. Mezdunarodnaa Zizn’, (5), 144-167. (In Russian). EDN: SJJAOE
- Gudkova, K. A. (2022). The impact of the “Abraham Agreements” on security in Middle East region. Gumanitarnyy Aktsent, (2), 73-77. (In Russian). EDN: NVOIQX
- Guzansky, Y., & Zachary, A. M. (2020). The Abraham Accords: Immediate significance and long-term implications. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, 14(3), 379-389. https://doi.org/10.1080/23739770.2020.1831861
- Hitman, G., & Zwilling, M. (2022). Normalization with Israel: An analysis of social networks discourse within Gulf states. Ethnopolitics, 21(4), 423-449. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2021.1901380
- Ian, B. (2019). Just below the surface: Israel, the Arab Gulf states and the limits of cooperation. LSE Middle East Centre, 1-40. Retrieved from http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/100313/7/JustBelowtheSurface.pdf
- Karasova, T. (2023). Israel after elections. Political development progress. Svobodnaaa Mysl’, (4), 77-88. (In Russian). EDN: RYUHHU
- Khan, M. R., & Shahzad, S. M. (2021). The Abraham Accords: Israel resizing spheres of influence. Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan, 58(2), 180-186.
- Kosach, G. G. (2021). Saudi Arabia and Israel: The Palestinian context. World Economy and International Relations, 65(1), 61-69. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-61-69
- Krylov, A. V., Fedorchenko, A. V., & Maryasis, D. A. (2022). The “normalization” process of the relations between Israel and the Arab monarchies from the point of view of Russian interests. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 13: Vostokovedenie, (3), 133-150. (In Russian). EDN: VYPRIV
- Kshevitskaia, M. A. (2021). US - Israel cooperation as a permanent destabilizing factor in the Middle East. Scientific Notes of V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University. Juridical Science, 7(3-1), 161-169. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.37279/2413-1733-2021-7-3(1)-161-169
- Liokumovich, I. A., & Akhmatshina, E. (2022). The Abraham Accords between Israel, UAE and Bahrain in the context of changing of the geopolitical reality in the Middle East. Asia and Africa Today, (2), 64-68. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/s032150750016335-0
- Maher, M. (2022). Two years on, the Abraham Accords bear fruit. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1-4. Retrieved from https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pdf/view/17719/en
- Makovsky, M., Hannah, J., Misztal, B., Ruhe, J., Cicurel, A., Ghalili, A., & Millner, S. (2022). Stronger and wider peace: A U.S. strategy for advancing the Abraham Accords. The Jewish Institute for the National Security of America, 1-48. Retrieved from https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/JINSA_Report_AbrahamAccords_v3-web.pdf
- Mazzucco, L., & Alexander, K. (2022). The Abraham Accords two years on: From ambition to reality. ELCANO Royal Institute, (58), 1-8. Retrieved from https://media.realinstitutoelcano.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/ari58-2022-mazzucco-alexander-abraham-accords-two-years-on-from-ambition-to-reality.pdf
- Melkumyan, E. S. (2021). Israel in foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates: From confrontation to normalization. MGIMO Review of International Relations, 14(2), 107-118. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2021-2-77-107-118
- Melnikova, S. V. (2020). Dynamics of the Arab countries’ involvement to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process (1967-2002). Vestnik of Samara University. History, Pedagogics, Philology, 26(4), 30-37. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.18287/2542-0445-2020-26-4-30-37
- Pásztor, K. (2022). The significance of the Abraham Accords for Morocco. Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary, 1-12. Retrieved from https://kki.hu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/KE_2022_21_MA_Abraham_Accords_Morocco_Pasztor_0512.pdf
- Saddiki, S. (2023). Morocco and the war in Gaza: The dilemma of principles and interests. EuroMESCo, (31), 1-4. Retrieved from https://www.euromesco.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Spot-on-31.pdf
- Singer, J. (2021). The Abraham Accords: Normalization agreements signed by Israel with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. International Legal Materials, 60(3), 448-463. https://doi.org/10.1017/ilm.2021.18
- Trigano, S. (2021). The Abraham Accords: Contrasting reflections. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, (188), 1-16. Retrieved from https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/188-WEB.pdf
- Vakil, S., & Quilliam, N. (2023). The Abraham Accords and Israel - UAE normalization: Shaping a new Middle East. Chatham House Research Paper, 1-84. Retrieved from https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/ default/files/2023-04/2023-03-28-abraham-accords-israel-uae-normalization-vakil-quilliam-1.pdf
- Varnavskii, Z. P. (2022). Features of the current stage of relations between the Arab States and Israel and prospects of their development. Sciff. Questions of Student Science, (3), 73-79. (In Russian). EDN: XATRUN