Maximum global warming potential formula

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The calculations of the global warming dynamics were made taking into account the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions according to the recommendations of the Paris Agreement. Based on the analysis of thermodynamic parameters of the climatic system during the last glacial and pre-industrial periods of the Earth’s history, the functions of the maximum global warming temperature dependence on the mass and volume concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were obtained. The mass of greenhouse saturation of the atmosphere by anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the corresponding maximum global warming temperature have been determined. With unrestricted emission of the three major greenhouse gases, the maximum temperature they can provide is 9.2 °С. With annual global emission reduction by 2060, global warming will continue until about 2108 with a global temperature increase up to 3.1 °С.

About the authors

Vladimir V. Tetelmin

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)

Author for correspondence.

Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, member of the Social Council at the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, D.Sc. in Engineering, Professor

6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation


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