卷 24, 编号 2 (2024): Russia’s Pivot to the East

THEMATIC DOSSIER

Pivot to the East as a Factor in Strengthening Russian Influence in Asia

Mosyakov D., Shpakovskaya M., Ponka T., Danilov V.

摘要

The object of study of this article is the Eastern vector of modern Russian foreign policy; the subject determines its main directions, mechanisms, and tools. The authors rely on the theory of neorealism, which allows to consider the foreign policy of states as a desire to ensure their national interests. The authors used the principles of historicism, scientific objectivity and reliability, which made it possible to study the prerequisites of Russia’s policy of turning to the East, to establish cause-and-effect relations and to identify regularities in the development of Russia’s international relations with the countries of the East. A systematic approach was used, as well as a number of general scientific (analysis, synthesis) and special historical methods of research: comparative-historical and problem-chronological methods. The study highlights the role of the Russian Foreign Minister Y.M. Primakov in Russia’s return to the East. It emphasizes that Primakov was not in favor of breaking off relations with European countries and the USA but sought to find a counterbalance to the pro-Western course of foreign policy in the 1990s and to build up relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). The article notes the difficulties Russia faces in implementing its Eastern policy, including the geographical remoteness from most APR countries, cold climate, the small population of the Far East, the underdeveloped infrastructure of the Far East, and the socio-cultural differences between Russia and the APR countries. But the course to strengthen Russia’s positions in the Asia-Pacific region is becoming a key foreign policy direction, a vital factor in the preservation and development of Russia as a developed industrial country. The paper analyzes the measures taken by the country’s leadership to involve the Russian economy in the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region and considers the dynamics of Russia’s trade relations with the main partners in this region. It concludes that the policy of turning to the East has taken place, as its successes are obvious.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):181-191
pages 181-191 views

Priorities of Economic Cooperation Between Russia and Azerbaijan in the Conditions of the Global Turbulence

Filkevich I., Mamedov Z., Gubadova A., Mamedova S.

摘要

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in the context of the sanctions policy, the Russian Federation is interested in building a new paradigm of international relations focused on achieving economic and political advantages based on cooperation with friendly states. Azerbaijan, of course, acts as such a state, which, due to its geographical location, political stability and international cooperation with Russian manufacturers, is now able to become a strategically important partner, taking into account geopolitical and geo-economic realities. Despite the availability of scientific papers on the problem of economic cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan, there is currently no comprehensive study of the possibilities of expanding economic partnership in the conditions of turbulence of global processes. The purpose of the study was to determine the priorities of economic cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan in the context of the global transformation of modern international relations and the turn of the Russian Federation to the East. To achieve this goal, the methods of comparison, system analysis, synthesis, logical generalization, and economic analysis were used. As a result of the study, the current situation of the development of economic cooperation between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation was studied, taking into account the political peculiarities of the development of the global community, which makes this study interdisciplinary. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that for the first time the factors contributing to the deepening of the economic partnership between the two countries have been identified. It was noted that in the new conditions, the role of Azerbaijan as a strategic partner of the Russian Federation is growing. The role of Azerbaijan as an international transport and logistics center has increased due to global turbulences, and in 2023 alone, the volume of traffic through the territory of the republic from Russia has almost doubled. It is concluded that the countries are interested in expanding economic cooperation and creating conditions for the development of international cooperation. Azerbaijan is expected to cooperate more closely with the states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including the process of deepening the integration partnership within the framework of the formation of a single economic space. In addition, new priorities for international economic cooperation and strategic directions for the development of international relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation in the long term have been identified, taking into account the turbulence of global processes.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):192-203
pages 192-203 views

Algeria - Russia Relations: Strategic Partnership in the Age of Geopolitics

Sour L.

摘要

The relationship between Algeria and Russia is stronger than at any other time in history. While this may be true in most regards, the historical narratives help to decipher how the Algerian-Russian relationship has evolved to its current state. The problems of modern relations between Algeria and Russia are revealed. The relevance of the topic is linked to the fact that relations between the two countries have undergone a qualitative change in recent years, as military ties have expanded to include economic relations and investment cooperation, leading to a new dynamic in bilateral relations. With growing interdependence, the two countries are also paying attention to the policies of major powers, especially Western powers, and the traditional bilateral strategic cooperation is deepening to address new geostrategic challenges, which will largely determine their future direction. Under these circumstances, it is important to analyze the emerging geopolitical dynamics and determine its impact on the strategic aspects of the bilateral relations. This article aims to highlight the main developments in these relations and to emphasize their evolution in the era of geopolitical tensions. Methodologically, the study is based on political realism. The main sources of the analysis are materials of think tanks, speeches of official officials and others. The study shows what underlies the current cooperation between Algeria and Russia and how geopolitical dynamics affect it. Both countries see each other as important security partners in certain regions, such as North Africa and the Sahel, and as partners in more ambitious projects of a political and strategic nature.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):204-215
pages 204-215 views

Central Asia - Center Gas Pipeline System: Challenges and Opportunities for Modern Russia - Central Asia Energy Relations

Ranjbar D., Mukan S., Niyazgulova A.

摘要

The recently formed “Gas Union” of Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is at a turning point, symbolizing a major shift in the energy dynamics of Central Asia. The goal of this tripartite alliance, initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is to transport Russian gas to Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan. This event marks a historic moment, as it is the first time that Russian gas has been imported into Central Asia. Against the backdrop of acute energy problems in the region, this union is aimed at meeting the immediate needs of the member states from Central Asia, but it also leaves many long-term geopolitical and economic issues for the parties involved. This article aims to comprehensively analyze the Central Asia - Center gas pipeline within the framework of the emerging Russia - Central Asia Gas Union. It seeks to identify and discuss the geopolitical, economic, and environmental challenges and opportunities this renewed energy cooperation presents. The scope of this study encompasses an examination of the historical context of the pipeline, the strategic objectives of the involved nations, and the potential implications for the regional and global energy landscape. The research methodology includes a thorough review of existing literature, policy documents, and energy reports. The theoretical foundation of the study is based on neoliberal theory. The authors conclude that the creation of a new energy alliance is a sign of the beginning of a new stage in the transformation of energy cooperation between Russia and the Central Asian countries.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):216-226
pages 216-226 views

双方关系历史

Problems of Interaction Between the Diplomatic Missions of the Ukrainian SSR and the RSFSR in Warsaw in the Process of Creating the USSR

Sklyarov S.

摘要

The article examines the most acute problems and their solutions in the relations between the diplomats of the RSFSR and the Ukrainian SSR in Poland during the establishment of the Soviet Union (1921-1923). The relevance of the study is due to the introduction of recently declassified archival documents into the scientific discourse, as well as the growing interest in the topic in connection with the centennial of the creation of the USSR. The purpose of the study is to reveal the previously silenced facts and problems that accompanied the work of the foreign policy departments of the Soviet republics up to the rigid centralization and regulation of their activities, which occurred in the second half of 1923. So far, the issues of interaction between the diplomatic departments of the Soviet republics have remained virtually unexplored in the Russian historiography. At the same time, researchers in other post-Soviet countries are undoubtedly interested in the subject, which is limited by the materials of mainly local archives. The work is based on the methods of comparative historical analysis. The source base is based on the previously classified documents of the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, in particular, the correspondence of the RSFSR plenipotentiary representation with the central office of the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the RSFSR in Moscow. As a result of the study, the author came to the conclusion that in 1921-1923 there were constant misunderstandings and conflict situations in the relations between the diplomatic missions of the RSFSR and the Ukrainian SSR operating in Warsaw. The higher officials in Moscow and Kharkov had to be constantly involved in their resolution. At the same time, it was not always possible to resolve disagreements and conflicts that arose promptly due to the lack of ready solutions in the specialized departments of the two republics. Many disagreements in the actions of Russian and Ukrainian diplomats reflected the numerous intra-party disputes over various issues of subordination and state structure that developed among the Bolsheviks who had won in Russia and Ukraine. The contradictions that arose, especially in the first stage of the establishment of diplomatic missions, were tried to be deepened and used for their own purposes by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):227-238
pages 227-238 views

国际安全

Indonesian Agenda: Fake News About Russia’s Special Military Operation on Social Media in Indonesia

Muqsith M., Pratomo R., Muzykant V.

摘要

One of the key events affecting international relations is Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. At the time of, Russia and Ukraine are in conflict. Russia started the military operation from a defensive point of view, standing against Ukraine joining NATO, which makes Russia’s borders more vulnerable to threats. The confrontation between the parties is taking place in all spheres, including the information space. In this case, it involves spreading fake news. Therefore, the authors rely on the dynamics of fake news in Indonesia on the topic of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. To conduct a qualitative study, the authors are based on data from the information platform TurnBackHoax.ID. A total of 71 samples of fake news were successfully collected and examined, leading to three important discoveries. Firstly, TikTok is one of the sources of dissemination of fake news in addition to international social networks banned in the Russian Federation. Secondly, fake news about the Russian conflict with Ukraine is not as popular as information about COVID-19. The reason for the unpopularity of this fake news is the geographical distance of Indonesia from the conflict zone. Finally, news consumers are still trapped in subjective assumptions and are not as critical in verifying information. This discovery allows relevant stakeholders to become more aware of new sources of fake news and to develop and improve their critical thinking skills.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):239-251
pages 239-251 views

Transboundary Interactions Between Afghanistan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization After the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Rauf S.

摘要

This paper aims to examine the functional utility of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for regional stability after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan. The instability in Afghanistan may become a serious regional challenge for the SCO to seek an acceptable solution. The study addresses the question that how the SCO members are dealing with the emerging crisis in Afghanistan. Hence, the prospective role of the SCO in building consensus among member states is unravelled with a conceptual framework, based on two theories of international relations namely regional security complex and functional cooperation theory. These theories provide a conceptual understanding that the interests of states, belonging to a general geographical region, are integrated and their mutual cooperation is more durable than the states outside the region. Subsequently, the study explored the role of the SCO in maintaining regional security and traced its efforts for stability. To explore the complexities within the SCO while managing the nascent government of the Taliban (forbidden in Russia) in Afghanistan, qualitative data has been collected. The data includes government websites, official statements and documents, books, research articles and newspapers, published in different countries. It is found that the worsening security situation in Afghanistan is a common threat to all the members of the SCO, so consensus is required to promote practical measures including the development of Afghanistan. Therefore, the SCO is focusing on addressing the immediate and tangible consequences of the Taliban’s takeover after the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and supporting regional states to adopt functional cooperation to reconstruct Afghanistan.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):252-263
pages 252-263 views

应用分析

Institutional Formation and Development of SCO Activities: Experience of Retrospective Analysis

Porshneva O., Razinkov S.

摘要

This article examines the institutional development and evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) from 2001 to the present day. The authors identify and characterize the stages and milestones of the organization’s development, while also examining the SCO’s regulatory framework and organizational structure. It is shown that the modern organizational structure of the SCO, formed through a process of long and contradictory evolution, includes a number of subsystems that, along with its fundamental principles of activity, ensure the SCO’s viability and development in the future. Indirect thematic content analysis of 120 official SCO documents shows the main trends of the SCO’s activities, the nature of the organization’s evolution and, ultimately, the stages of its institutional development. The first stage (2001-2004) is associated with the organization’s institutional formation, while the second stage (2004-2008) is characterized by intensive promotion and the minimal complexity of trade, economic, humanitarian and cultural initiatives. The third stage (2008-2014) shows a slight weakening of the impetus for the SCO’s development, while the fourth stage (since 2015) is associated with an attempt to bring the SCO to a qualitatively new level, demonstrating an increase in the efficiency of cooperation in all spheres. A quantitative content analysis of the frequency and dynamics of the use of representative keywords in one of the types of official documents of the SCO (declarations adopted following the summits of the heads of the member states) has made it possible to substantiate a thesis about the gradual complication, detailing, and specialization of the SCO’s activities, as well as to identify and characterize its priorities. In general, the content analysis shows that the SCO has gone through several stages in its development, characterized by qualitative specifics, while maintaining a clear priority on security issues, reflecting the significance of traditional and new threats. A conclusion is reached about the functioning of multilevel interaction on the SCO platform to ensure regional security and cooperation while simultaneously developing both multilateral (including with external actors) and bilateral formats: this indicates the formation of a new model of regionalism in an emerging multipolar world.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):264-279
pages 264-279 views

国际经济关系

The Impact of South Korean Direct Investments in the Russian Far East on the Improvement of Their Bilateral Export-Import Activities

Lee H., Degtereva E., Chernikov S.

摘要

The Republic of Korea (ROK), due to its geographical proximity to the Russian Far East, has been a close and crucial economic partner of the region alongside other East Asian countries. The increasing of Western sanctions’ pressure and the intensification of Russia’s activation of the “Pivot to the East” will promote the development of cooperation with the Eastern countries, and the role of Eastern Russia is likely to increase, which will increase the role of Russia’s Far Eastern regions. In addition, Western sanctions will direct the country’s foreign policy towards import substitution. On the other hand, the relationship between trade and foreign direct investments (FDI), whether it is complementary or substitutive, is rather controversial and thus has long been debated by several scholars: each case study demonstrates a different result depending on the focus country, economic zones, study period, and so forth. In this sense, this study examines the impact of South Korean FDI in the Russian Far East on their bilateral exports and imports for the period Q2 2017 - Q3 2021. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and robust least squares regression analyses confirm that South Korean FDI stock in the Russian Far East promotes the Russian Far East’s imports from South Korea, while it shows no statistical significance in its exports to South Korea. In order to contribute to the economic growth of the Russian Far East and create win-win effects, the way South Korean companies invest in the Russian Far East should be reformed to localize their production process.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):280-296
pages 280-296 views

国际教育合作

Rector V.F. Stanis: On the Path of Continuity and Improvement of the Peoples’ Friendship University

Ponomarenko L., Lukyanova G.

摘要

The article is devoted to the activities of Vladimir Frantsevich Stanis, the second rector of the Patrice Lumumba Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia. He was a charismatic leader who enjoyed enormous authority among his colleagues and made a huge contribution to the development of this unique university. The article outlines the main stages of the biography of V.F. Stanis, his difficult life path from the participation in the Great Patriotic War to the work in public offices, as a result of which he gained vast experience in organizational and managerial work. The authors pay special attention to the diverse activities of V.F. Stanis in the position of the rector of the Peoples’ Friendship University which he held for more than 20 years (from 1970 to 1993) and note that it was during this period that his scientific and pedagogical potential and leadership talent were fully revealed. It is emphasized that thanks to his work with the personnel V.F. Stanis managed to ensure the creation of prominent scientific and methodological schools in various fields at the Peoples’ Friendship University. At the same time, both in the USSR and abroad there became especially famous not only scientific schools of natural sciences and humanities, but also original methods of teaching Russian as a foreign language and foreign languages, including oriental ones developed by the university teaching staff. Moreover, the rector actively developed other areas of the university’s activities: international relations, extracurricular work, which required deep knowledge of the history of foreign countries and understanding of the current political situation in them. The authors show that thanks to his enormous dedication and careful attitude towards the staff and students, V.F. Stanis managed to create an international team of the Peoples’ Friendship University of many thousands.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):297-305
pages 297-305 views

Identifying Altitudinal Change in Post-Conflict Scenarios and Pathways to Rehabilitation: Case Study of Japanese Students’ Perceptions of Russia and Their Sources of Information in 2021-2022

Zhilina L.

摘要

Recent crises in international relations have created tensions in communication and hindered the achievement of understanding between societies. Under these complicated circumstances, young people are not only objects of public influence but also agenda-setting actors capable of learning and acting on the basis of knowledge about the international situation. This article focuses on how the Japanese students perceive their close neighbor Russia and examines how their views on the image of the neighboring country and its citizens have changed from 2021 to 2022. To examine the changes in perception, within the research project “Student’s representations of neighboring countries: Russia and Japan,” students from four Japanese universities were interviewed (online questionnaire). In the present work the results of the studies are analyzed in order to draw conclusions about the drivers of the change in the public perception of Russia. The author focused on university students for this study because it was assumed that they would eventually become part of the political elite of the country. The tendency for social and political advocacy among the youth was also a contributing factor that supported university students being the group favorably consider for this research. The university student population also provides a higher level of homogeneity among respondents, increasing the internal validity of the findings. Comparing the results of the 2022 survey with the results of the 2021 survey, we can observe some significant changes in the perception of Russia by Japanese youth. First of all, we can observe a shift in perception from the sphere of culture to the sphere of security. The quotes from students throughout this article should be taken into account when looking at the results and analysis. This research also confirms that negative and positive cognitive opinions about a neighboring country can coexist among Japanese youth.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2024;24(2):306-322
pages 306-322 views

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