Mechanisms and determinants of leadership in Hispano-American countries: a comparative analysis of development trajectories

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Abstract

 This study presents a comparative analysis of the factors and mechanisms driving the development of leading Spanish-speaking Latin American countries over the period 1990–2023, with attention to the influence of global economic and political dynamics. The study focuses on five key countries — Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Colombia — which demonstrate relatively stable economic performance, political influence, demographic weight, and active engagement in international affairs. Methodologically of the study is based on an adapted version of Ray Dalio’s model, enhanced by an original structural framework for assessing seven institutional factors: the level of education, foreign trade volume, innovation and technological capacity, military potential, competitiveness, financial infrastructure, and industrial output. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining retrospective quantitative indicators with qualitative variables, such as institutional reforms, politico-economic transformation, and involvement in international alliances. The selection of countries is justified by their structural comparability, similar starting conditions in the 1990s, and the availability of consistent and verifiable statistical data. Venezuela is deliberately excluded from the sample due to its atypical developmental trajectory and lack of reliable macroeconomic data since the mid-2010s, which undermines the reproducibility and validity of comparative analysis. The analysis identifies education (particularly in Argentina and Chile), international trade (especially in Mexico and Chile), and industrial development (with Mexico as the regional leader) as key determinants of long-term leadership. In contrast, the absence of global financial centers and reserve currencies remains a developmental weakness, while military capacity continues to play a significant role only in conflict-prone countries such as Colombia. The findings contribute to the academic understanding of regional leadership in Latin America and provide a foundation for policy strategies aimed at fostering sustainable growth and enhancing the international standing of Hispano-American states.

About the authors

Elena V. Karpina

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”

Author for correspondence.
Email: ekarpina@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8008-2453
SPIN-code: 9146-8792

PhD, associate professor, Leading Researcher, The HSE School of Foreign Languages

17 M. Ordynka, Moscow, 115184, Russian Federation

Andrei A. Voropai

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”

Email: avoropay@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0008-6670-3338

Intern Researcher at the Laboratory for political geography and contemporary geopolitics

17 M. Ordynka, Moscow, 115184, Russian Federation

Georgiy M. Tatyankin

National Research University “Higher School of Economics”

Email: gtatyankin@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0007-2379-6776

Intern Researcher at the Laboratory for Mathematical modeling, 

17 M. Ordynka, Moscow, 115184, Russian Federation

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