Estimates of greenhouse gases emissions reduction potential in Kazakhstan by 2030 in connection with its commitments in the Paris Climate Agreement

Prospects for achieving the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Kazakhstan in the framework of the Paris climate convention was assessed through projections of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions of 31 large energy enterprises by 2030. The total CO2 emissions of these enterprises reach 86,9 million tons or 26,5 % of the country’s GHG emissions. For projection of the GHG emissions of the selected power plants three scenarios - “business as usual” (trend), “moderate modernization” and “full modernization” - were designed. “The unconditional target” would remain unachievable in the “business as usual” and even “moderate modernization” scenarios. However, the scenario of “full modernization” allows reaching “the unconditional target” with a good reserve. Moreover, this scenario allows reaching “the conditional target”. Our assessment of potential for reduction of the GHG emissions shows that Kazakhstan’s commitments in the Paris climate convention are very responsible. To meet these commitments technological modernization of the entire industrial sector of the country would be required. It could be achieved only by full mobilization of material and financial resources.