Testing with Values: the Refugee Problem and Political Prospects of the “Alternative for Germany”

The article analyses the reasons for the electoral success of the “Alternative for Germany” party at the federal and state levels in 2016-2017. Looking at the ideological spectrum of German political parties through the research lens of a two-dimensional coordinate system that, alongside the traditional ideological dimension includes the value axis, the author points out the fact that the problem of the refugees, which appeals to the values of the nation, perplexed German parties, as the choice of a particular strategy in regard to the refugees involved high risks of losing a significant number of votes. As a result, those parties, which managed to clearly articulate their system of values, above all the “Alternative”, benefited from this situation. The author states that the rise of the “Alternative” was caused by the “value vacuum” in the party life in Germany stemming from the progressive “open-door” refugee policy introduced by Chancellor Merkel in order to resolve the European refugee crisis. Much consideration is given to the reasons that led the CDU to adopt such an unusual strategy for a predominantly centrist party. In conclusion the author suggests that, in spite of its electoral success, political influence of the “Alternative” will be seriously limited by the unwillingness on the part of other parties to establish contacts and build inter-party ties with an inexperienced political player, which is prone to neglect the achievements of German democracy and does not fit into the framework of modern political mainstream. From the other hand, the tightening of the immigration policy weakens the protest potential of German voters.