Applied Quantitative Analysis of R.T. Erdogan’s Multi-Vector Foreign Policy in 2014-2022

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The study is devoted to the applied analysis of the concept of multi-vector in the foreign policy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his presidency from 2014 to 2022. Türkiye’s foreign policy is of particular interest to researchers. Ankara is actively involved in regional and world politics. Turkish foreign policy is characterized as multi-vector, but different approaches to the definition of Turkish multi-vector are used in scientific research. The purpose of the study is to identify the main vectors of R.T. Erdogan’s personal diplomacy during his presidency. The relevance of the work lies in the application of a quantitative method that allows identifying the main vectors of R.T. Erdogan’s foreign policy on the basis of the collected database of his foreign policy contacts. The method is different in that it is free from the influence of the researcher’s personal preferences in analyzing foreign policy and the influence of individual high-profile, but isolated events. The database covers the entire period of the presidency of R.T. Erdogan from 2014 to the end of 2022 and includes all foreign policy contacts published on the website of the President of Türkiye. The developed methodology allows not only to see the main vectors of foreign policy, but also to assess their depth on the basis of mathematical calculations. As a result of the analysis, the main macro-regional vectors and countries in each of the vectors were identified, and the depth and quality of contacts with these countries were measured and presented. It was also found that the Turkish President actively interacts with the local level of government. Moreover, he implements the diplomacy of the second track. It covers the main macro-regional vectors from the side of public diplomacy. The database and the method allow us to assert that the policy of the Turkish president is indeed multi-vector, but the multi-vector nature of this policy is much deeper and goes beyond relations with countries. During the work, promising areas for future theoretical and applied research were identified.

作者简介

Igor Vokhmintsev

HSE University

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: igor.nk.ru@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0607-6885

Master’s Student

Moscow, Russian Federation

Razil Guzaerov

Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences; RUDN University

Email: guzaerov99@bk.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0006-9975

Junior Researcher, Department of Middle and Post-Soviet East, Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAS); Postgraduate Student, Department of Comparative Politics, RUDN University

Moscow, Russian Federation

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