Projections of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for grapes growing

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Abstract

The climatic and orographic features of the Sevastopol region are the basis for the development of viticulture, winemaking and obtaining a wide range of high-quality wines. Viticulture is a specialization of agriculture in the Sevastopol region. Observed and predicted climate changes lead to a shift in favorable zones for growing grapes. The amount of precipitation is a key parameter, along with air temperature, for obtaining high quality grapes, and later wine. The water requirements of grapes vary with the season and phase of plant development. The article assesses the possible changes in the conditions of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for the grapes growing. The work uses data from numerical calculations of global climate models of the CMIP6 project under an unfavorable scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations SSP5-8.5. The assessment was carried out using two agroclimatic indices - the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and the dryness index, by the middle and end of the 21st century. According to the predicted values of agroclimatic indices, by the middle and the end of the century, the Sevastopol region will remain in the zone where the cultivation of grapes will be possible without irrigation. The results obtained showed the likelihood of an increase in the aridity of the region in future periods, especially towards the end of the century, which will entail additional stress for the grapes. Adaptation measures such as selection of drought-tolerant grape varieties, changes in tillage systems, and placement of vineyards on northern slopes will be required to minimize unfavorable conditions.

About the authors

Elena V. Vyshkvarkova

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems; Sevastopol State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: aveiro_7@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4890-3247

PhD (Geogr.), Leading Researcher, Laboratory Large-scale Interaction Atmosphere and Ocean and Climate Change, Institute of Natural and Technical Systems; Associate Professor, Department of Monitoring and Theory of Climate, Sevastopol State University

28 Lenina St, Sevastopol, 299011, Russian Federation; 33 Universitetskaya St, Sevastopol, 299053, Russian Federation

Evgeniy A. Rybalko

All-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking ‘Magarach’ RAS

Email: agroeco-magarach@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4579-3505

PhD (Agric.), Head of Agroecology Sector

31 Kirova St, Yalta, 298600, Russian Federation

Olesia V. Marchukova

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems

Email: olesjath@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6205-9946

junior researcher, Laboratory Large-scale Interaction Atmosphere and Ocean and Climate Change

28 Lenina St, Sevastopol, 299011, Russian Federation

Natalia V. Baranova

All-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking ‘Magarach’ RAS

Email: natali.v.0468@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2588-360X

PhD (Agric.), Leading Researcher, Laboratory Agroecology

31 Kirova St, Yalta, 298600, Russian Federation

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Copyright (c) 2022 Vyshkvarkova E.V., Rybalko E.A., Marchukova O.V., Baranova N.V.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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