Modeling of random static loads on a structural cover with limited statistical data

Cover Page


Relevance. Loads on structures are complex stochastic elements that include several types of uncertainties simultaneously. The article describes a probabilistic approach to the load modeling on structural covers taking into account limited statistical data, when the parameters of distribution functions are presented in an interval form. The aim of the work is development of an approach to modeling the probabilistic distribution of random load on the structural surface in conditions of limited (incomplete) statistical information about the design load. Methods. The probability distribution of a particular type of loading is represented as p-boxes (probability boxes). A numerical example shows an algorithm for determining a p-box consisting of a sum of p-boxes that characterize different loads with different boundary distribution functions. Results. Based on the proposed approach, it is possible to define the intervals of normative and design loads with a given confidence level, to estimate the failure probability of structural elements, to assess the risk of an accident and also to make selection for structural element cross-section at the target level of reliability.

About the authors

Sergey A. Solovev

Vologda State University

SPIN-code: 4738-8927
15 Lenina St, Vologda, 160000, Russian Federation
Associate Professor of the Department of Industrial and Civil Engineering, Candidate of Technical Sciences


  1. Kozak D.L., Liel A.B. Reliability of steel roof structures under snow loads. Structural Safety. 2015;(54):46-56.
  2. Rózsás Á., Sýkora M. Propagating snow measurement uncertainty to structural reliability by statistical and interval-based approaches. 7th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, REC2016. Computing with Polymorphic Uncertain Data. 2016:91-110.
  3. Qiang S., Zhou X., Gu M. Research on reliability of steel roof structures subjected to snow loads at representative sites in China. Cold Regions Science and Technology. 2018;(150):62-69.
  4. Zhang H., Mullen R.L., Muhanna R.L. Structural analysis with probability-boxes. International Journal of Reliability and Safety. 2012;6(1-3):110-129.
  5. Guest J.K., Igusa T. Structural optimization under uncertain loads and nodal locations. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering. 2008;198(1):116-124.
  6. Zolina T.V., Sadchikov P.N. Modelirovanie snegovoy nagruzki na pokrytie promyshlennogo zdaniya [Modeling of the Snow Load on the Roofs of Industrial Buildings]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2016;(8):25-33. (In Russ.)
  7. Moore R.E. Methods and applications of interval analysis. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics; 1979.
  8. Ferson S., Kreinovich V., Grinzburg L., Myers D., Sentz K. Constructing probability boxes and Dempster - Shafer structures (No. SAND-2015-4166J). Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque; 2003.
  9. Zhang H., Mullen R.L., Muhanna R.L. Finite element structural analysis using imprecise probabilities based on p-box representation. 4th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing. Professional Activities Centre, National University of Singapore; 2010. p. 211-225.
  10. Sallak M., Schön W., Aguirre F. Reliability assessment for multi-state systems under uncertainties based on the Dempster - Shafer theory. IIE Transactions. 2013;45(9): 995-1007.
  11. Melchers R.E., Beck A.T. Structural reliability analysis and prediction. John Wiley & Sons; 2018.
  12. Utkin V.S., Solovyev S.A. Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete elements with normal cracks (on RC beam example). International Journal for Computational Civil and Structural Engineering. 2018;14(3):142-152.
  13. Holicky M., Markova J., Sykora M. Target reliability levels in present standards. Transactions of the VSB - Technical University of Ostrava, Civil Engineering Series. 2014;14(2):46-53.
  14. Marano G.C., Quaranta G. A new possibilistic reliability index definition. Acta mechanica. 2010;210(3-4):291-303.



Abstract - 57

PDF (Russian) - 35




Copyright (c) 2020 Solovev S.A.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

This website uses cookies

You consent to our cookies if you continue to use our website.

About Cookies