Neither a New Cold War nor a New Peloponnesian War: The Emerging Cyber-narrative Competition at the Heart of Sino-American Relations
- 作者: Smith N.R.1, Brown R.J.1
-
隶属关系:
- University of Nottingham
- 期: 卷 21, 编号 2 (2021): Intensifying U.S. — Сhina Strategic Rivalry and the Transformation of the Global Order
- 页面: 252-264
- 栏目: THEMATIC DOSSIER
- URL: https://journals.rudn.ru/international-relations/article/view/26775
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2021-21-2-252-264
如何引用文章
全文:
详细
There is much pessimism as to the current state of Sino-American relations, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020. Such pessimism has led to some scholars and commentators asserting that the Sino-American relationship is on the cusp of either a new Cold War or, even more alarmingly, something akin to the Peloponnesian War (via a “Thucydides’ Trap”) whereby the United States might take pre-emptive measures against China. This article rejects such analogizing and argues that, due to important technological advancements found at the intersection of the digital and fourth industrial revolutions, most of the real competition in the relationship is now occurring in cyberspace, especially with regards to the aim of asserting narratives of “truth”. Two key narrative battlegrounds that have raged since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are examined: “where was the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic?” and “who has had the most successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic?”. This article shows that Sino-American competition in cyberspace over asserting their narratives of truth (related to the COVID-19 pandemic) is fierce and unhinged. Part of what is driving this competition is the challenging domestic settings politicians and officials find themselves in both China and the United States, thus, the competing narratives being asserted by both sides are predominately for domestic audiences. However, given that cyberspace connects states with foreign publics more intimately, the international aspect of this competition is also important and could result in further damage to the already fragile Sino-American relationship. Yet, whether this competition will bleed into the “real world” is far from certain and, because of this, doomsaying via historical analogies should be avoided.
作者简介
Nicholas Smith
University of Nottingham
编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: nr.smith@soverin.net
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1959-0365
PhD, Associate Professor, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, School of International Studies
Ningbo, ChinaRuairidh Brown
University of Nottingham
Email: ruairidh.brown@nottingham.edu.cn
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5492-3132
PhD, International Studies Tutor, Centre for English Language Education
Ningbo, China参考
- Allison, G. (2017). Destined for war: Can America and China escape Thucydides’s trap? Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
- Barrinha, A., & Renard, T. (2017). Cyber-diplomacy: the making of an international society in the digital age. Global Affairs, 3(4-5), 353-364. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23340460.2017.1414924
- Benedikt, M. (1994). Cyberspace: Some proposals. In M. Benedikt (Eds.), Cyberspace: First steps (pp. 119-224). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
- Bjola, C., & Manor, I. (2018). Revisiting Putnam’s two-level game theory in the digital age: Domestic digital diplomacy and the Iran nuclear deal. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 31(1), 3-32. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2018.1476836
- Bronfenbrenner, U. (1961). The mirror image in Soviet-American relations: A social psychologist’s report. Journal of Social Issues, 17(3), 45-56. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1961.tb01682.x
- Cartwright, M. (2020). Internationalising state power through the internet: Google, Huawei and geopolitical struggle. Internet Policy Review, 9(3), 1-18. https://dx.doi.org/10.14763/2020.3.1494
- Choucri, N., & Goldsmith, D. (2012). Lost in cyberspace: Harnessing the Internet, international relations, and global security. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 68(2), 70-77. https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0096340212438696
- Clarke, M. (2017). The Belt and Road initiative: China’s new grand strategy? Asia Policy, (24), 71-79. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/asp.2017.0023
- Demchak, C.C., & Dombrowski, P.J. (2014). Rise of a cybered Westphalian age: The coming decades. In M. Mayer, M. Carpes & R. Knoblich (Eds.), The global politics of science and technology (Vol. 1, pp. 91-113). Berlin: Springer. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55007-2_5
- Diesen, G. (2021). Great power competition in the Fourth industrial revolution: The geoeconomics of technological sovereignty. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
- Grove, J. (2020). From geopolitics to geotechnics: Global futures in the shadow of automation, cunning machines, and human speciation. International Relations, 34(3), 432-455. https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047117820948582
- Huseynov, V. (2019). Geopolitical rivalries in the “Common Neighborhood”: Russia’s conflict with the West, soft power, and neoclassical realism. Stuttgart: Ibidem Press.
- Jaworsky, B.N., & Qiaoan, R. (2020). The politics of blaming: The narrative battle between China and the US over COVID-19. Journal of Chinese Political Science. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09690-8
- Krishna-Hensel, S.F. (2010). Technology and international relations. In R.A. Denemark & R. Marlin-Bennett (Eds.), The International studies encyclopedia (Vol. 11, pp. 6947-6959). New York: Wiley-Blackwell.
- Li, W. (2020). Why do we need to revisit the Cold War? China International Strategy Review, 2(1), 86-98. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42533-020-00047-7
- Limnéll, J. (2016). The cyber arms race is accelerating - what are the consequences? Journal of Cyber Policy, 1(1), 50-60. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23738871.2016.1158304
- Meng, W. (2019). Unity, democracy, and anti-Americanism in China. The Washington Quarterly, 42(3), 121-135. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2019.1664844
- Middleton, B. (2017). A history of cyber security attacks: 1980 to present. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
- Moore, G.J. (2017). Avoiding a Thucydides Trap in Sino-American relations (…and 7 reasons why that might be difficult). Asian Security, 13(2), 98-115. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2017.1286162
- Moosa, I.A. (2020). The Thucydides Trap as an alternative explanation for the US-China trade war. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 12(1), 42-55. https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910119896644
- Neumann, I.B. (2018). A prehistorical evolutionary view of diplomacy. Place Branding and Public Diplomacy, 14(1), 4-10. https://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41254-017-0089-z
- Polyakova, A., & Boyer, S.P. (2018). The future of political warfare: Russia, the West, and the coming age of global digital competition. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
- Rapkin, D.P., Thompson, W.R., & Christopherson, J.A. (1979). Bipolarity and bipolarization in the Cold War era: Conceptualization, measurement, and validation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 23(2), 261-295. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200277902300203
- Sachs, J.D. (2019). Will America create a cold war with China. China Economic Journal, 12(2), 100-108. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1601811
- Schweller, R.L., & Pu, X. (2011). After unipolarity: China’s visions of international order in an era of US decline. International Security, 36(1), 41-72.
- Smith, N.R. (2019). International order in the coming cryptocurrency age: The potential to disrupt American primacy and privilege? Rising Powers Quarterly, 3(1), 77-97.
- Smith, N.R. (2020). A New Cold War? Assessing the current US - Russia relationship. Cham: Palgrave Pivot.
- Smith, N.R., & Fallon, T. (2020). An epochal moment? The COVID-19 pandemic and China’s international order building. World Affairs, 183(3), 235-255. https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0043820020945395
- Thaliyakkattil, S. (2019). Introduction: The BRI as strategic camouflage. In S. Thaliyakkattil (Eds.), China’s Achilles’ heel: The Belt and Road Initiative and its Indian discontents (pp. 1-35). Singapore: Springer Singapore. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8425-7_1
- Yoder, B.K. (2019). Uncertainty, shifting power and credible signals in US - China relations: Why the “Thucydides Trap” is real, but limited. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(1), 87-104. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11366-019-09606-1
- Zhang, B. (2019). The perils of hubris? A tragic reading of “Thucydides’ Trap” and China - US relations. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(1), 129-144. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11366-019-09608-z