The use of scenario forecasting methods to estimate the costs of logistical support for government organizations

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Abstract

The article deals with the problem of increasing the efficiency of cost planning for material and technical support of government organizations in conditions of limited budget resources and high price variability. A scenario model for forecasting total costs is proposed, based on the dependence of costs on the volume of consumption of material resources, price dynamics and correction factors reflecting the influence of technological and organizational factors. The model includes three scenarios: basic, stressful and optimization, allowing you to assess the range of budget consequences and form management decisions taking into account possible changes in the external environment. The results showed that the stress scenario leads to increased costs relative to the baseline scenario, while the optimization scenario provides savings compared to the stress scenario. The results obtained confirm that the use of scenario forecasting methods makes it possible to increase the validity of purchases, optimize the allocation of budget funds and reduce financial risks when managing the logistics system.

About the authors

Vladimir Viktorovich Novikov

Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: sn_03@rabler.ru
SPIN-code: 2822-5580

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Financial, Economic, Logistical, and Medical Support at the Order of the Red Banner of Labor Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation

125171 Russia, Moscow, Zoya and Alexander Kosmodemyanskikh str., 8

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