Developed and developing countries economy

«New normal» and the Сhinese model of «dual circulation»: To the question of the «present stage» of the global economy’ development

Konovalova Y.A.


The reserch explores multiple approaches to the term “new normality”, which appeared in the scientific economic community after the 2008 crisis, and became relevant again with the proclamation of a “new economic era” in China, the “entry” of the world community into the era of the Anthropocene, and the collision of the world with a problem of global significance - the COVID-19 virus. The relevance of the topic is also due to modern conditions: the turbulence of the world economy, which it has entered not only since the beginning of the pandemic, but also as a result of those “tectonic” shifts in the system of international economic relations that occurred after Russia launched a special military operation. The need to supplement and expand the term “new normality” comes from the questions: “If the term “new normality” or “norm” arises, then what is the “old norm”? In relation to what phenomena or processes is this term used and what is the set of definitions and approaches to it?”. The purpose of this article is to identify the main features of the “new normality” in the context of the growth and development phase that the Chinese economy entered in 2014, in particular. The “new normality” in Chinese is based on achieving a more diversified structure of the national economy, ensuring sustainable growth and a more even distribution of benefits. The etymology and development of the term “new normality” are considered. Despite the multiplicity of approaches, a single definition for the term in question has not developed, neither within the framework of economic science, nor within the framework of other areas. The prerequisites underlying the “new norm” in Chinese are analyzed in detail, including those that served as the basis for revising the country’s economic development model and implementing the model known today as the “double circulation” model. The author raises the question of the need to develop an approach to the term also in the key of current events, tectonic shifts in the world economy and the system of international economic relations, which, objectively, can be characterized as a “crisis” of the modern stage of the development of the world economy, known as globalization, or a transitional period, a transitional stage to a new, a completely different stage in the development of the world economy. The main conclusion of the study is as follows: the current stage of the development of the world economy, that is, globalization, is experiencing an acute phase of turbulence, which obviously began long before the last economic crisis of 2008. The events of the last few years show that the effects of globalization to a certain extent cease to justify themselves: increased international competition, increased protectionism policies and an increase in the number of trade disputes within the WTO, escalation of “trade wars”, COVID-19 and its impact on the entire system of international economic relations, disruption and restructuring of production and logistics chains, as well as the exit of TNCs from the Russian market as a result of a special military operation, all this indicates that the current stage of development of the world economy is now a transitional period not because of the effects and processes that occur under the influence of certain events, but because of the restructuring of the entire global economic and geopolitical architecture. All of the above, in turn, requires an adequate response from the economic schools in the form of the need to develop theoretical approaches to the question of the transitive nature of the current stage of the development of the world economy and the transition to another stage.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):7-29
pages 7-29 views

Industrial organization markets

Defining trends in the evolution of the Russian gas market

Allayarova N.I., Ketsba B.I.


The new “driving force” of the liberalization of the conditions for the functioning of the gas sector associated with demonopolization and the formation of an effective structure of the domestic gas market with a high level of competition and fair principles of the organization of natural gas trade for Russian consumers are the ongoing changes in the economic situation in the global energy market. Against the background of the expected decline in pipeline gas exports to Europe (the volume of decline may amount to 100 billion cubic meters in the medium term) it is important to focus efforts on the development of the domestic gas market, since the task in these conditions is more urgent than ever. First of all, to accelerate the transition to market pricing mechanisms (except for the population) using indicative prices on the stock exchange and within the framework of inter-fuel competition. Currently, gas prices in the domestic market are subsidized by exports, which, as mentioned above, is going to decrease, which in turn will lead to a decrease in such subsidies, and accordingly, there will be a need for higher rates of price growth in the domestic market. The importance of further development of gas exchange trading in Russia is emphasized on various government platforms. The main guidelines for improving the exchange mechanisms for the sale of natural gas are contained in the “National Plan (Roadmap) for the development of competition in the Russian Federation for 2021-2025”. It should be noted that the development of gas exchange trading should take place by increasing the economic attractiveness for participants, creating favorable economically conditioned prerequisites for an equal supply of gas to the exchange for all sellers, as well as developing an appropriate regulatory framework.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):30-48
pages 30-48 views

Economic analysis of the performance of Russian manufacturers of equipment for the dairy industry

Kulumbegov M.M.


The collapse of the USSR led not only to the formation of 15 independent republics, the emergence of the CIS, but also to the rupture of those complex long-term stable cooperative ties between the countries that have been formed and developed for more than half a century. The manufacturing industry, as in many countries, accounts for a large share in the structure of the Russian gross domestic product: according to Rosstat, in 2020, the weight of manufacturing industries in the output structure was 26 %. One of the most significant types of production is the production of equipment for the dairy industry. In this regard, the authors raised the question of the level of development of this industry in Russia and its indicators. Currently, the Russian dairy industry is one of the industries with a high share of imported equipment, which is about 70 %. The purpose of the study is to identify and prove that, despite the high degree of dependence on imports, this category of products is also produced by domestic enterprises, which, respectively, account for about 30 %. Basically, Russian manufacturers of equipment for the dairy industry satisfy the demand of small and medium-sized businesses, while the demands of large businesses are replenished by imports. The authors analyzed the financial condition and efficiency of dairy machinery enterprises using the example of the following companies: Ice water generators, “SOMZ”, TD “Russian Armor”, MNPP “Initiative”, “PROTEMOL”, “Vologda machines”, “Dairy machinery Plant”, “Dagprodmash”, “BLS Engineering”, The plant of capacitive and food equipment “Grand”, “KFTEHNO”, “AGROS”, “Plant Aggregate”, “Selmash Dairy Machines”, “Color”, “KULTEK”, “Lenprodmash”, “Russian meal”, “Kolaks”, ICP “TECHNOCOM”, JSC “Plant Molmash”, “KR-Tech”, “NPO GIGAMASH”, Elf 4M “Trading House”, “VKP Signal-pak”, “PLANT TECHTANK”, “SLAVUTICH”, “NMZ”. Based on the data for 2016-2020, the future financial indicators of the companies in question for 2021-2022 were predicted. The short-term nature of the forecast compiled by the authors is related to the fact that budgets for the next year are formed at the end of the calendar year, and the analysis did not take into account the current conditions of Russian-Ukrainian relations.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):49-58
pages 49-58 views

Innovation and investment support for sustainable development of the agricultural sector of the economy

Zaporozhets D.V.


It is possible to ensure the country’s food security only with the sustainable development of the agricultural sector of the economy, which, in turn, is impossible without a transition to an innovative way of agricultural development. Consistent implementation of import substitution practices, improving the quality and increasing the volume of products in the long term will allow the domestic agro-industrial complex to reach a new level of its development, it is also possible only with the widespread introduction of innovative technologies and tools, thereby ensuring a high level of competitiveness of domestic agricultural products. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the transformation of the agricultural sector of the Russian economy, which is taking place under the influence of increasing geopolitical risks, which should become a point of growth of the domestic agro-industrial complex, since, as practice shows, any economic crisis is replaced by economic growth subsequently. The aim of the study is to develop and test a methodology for determining the factors of sustainable development of the agricultural sector of the economy, based on the technology of data-mining and big-data analysis, and to conduct a subsequent assessment of trends in the identified factors.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):59-73
pages 59-73 views

Key problems of the foreign medicines contract production organization in developing countries

Chernikov S.U., Zobov A.M., Degtereva E.A.


Contract manufacturing is gaining momentum in the pharmaceutical industry. Many pharmaceutical companies that do not have enough time and financial resources to build a fullfledged drug development chain transfer some or all phases of development and production to outsourcing. Today, many even large pharmaceutical companies transfer production to developing countries on a contract basis in order to reduce costs. However, despite a number of advantages of outsourcing, it is worth considering the rather significant barriers to the organization of contract manufacturing of medicines in developing countries. The article discusses the main difficulties in organizing contract manufacturing, primarily on examples from other science-intensive and capital-intensive industries. The study shows the similarity of the difficulties that arise when transferring this practice to the pharmaceutical industry. It is also emphasized that in the world of pharmaceuticals there is a growing trend towards the use of generic drugs. One of the undeniable advantages of their production is their economic availability compared to the originals, however, it imposes increased requirements on the contract manufacturer due to the importance of not deviating too far from the original recipe. The research revealed that countries such as China, India and Japan occupy significant shares of the pharmaceutical contract manufacturing market, including generics - primarily due to various combinations of low labor costs, capital and overhead costs (compared to the United States and Europe), tax incentives and, as a result, underestimated production costs. This circumstance is extremely important for the current situation in the pharmaceutical industry in Russia, which must simultaneously make up for the dropped import volumes of finished drugs, and at the same time speed up the stalled import substitution of a number of the most critical products. As a result and purpose of the study, it is possible to identify the identified barriers to speeding up the organization of pharmaceutical contract manufacturing of drugs necessary for the domestic market, to take them into account in the process of developing appropriate government measures.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):74-90
pages 74-90 views

Transforming interpretations of food security

Yakimovich E.A.


The research shows the change in the concept of food security from the Malthusian approach to its modern interpretation, based on four aspects of food security - availability, access, use and stability. It is shown that the growing problems with all forms of food security in the world are due not only to the growing number of conflicts, extreme weather events and economic shocks, but also to the increasing spread of inequality, which reduces the chances of achieving food security in the long term. It is substantiated that the four-component approach to the interpretation of food security does not cover the entire range of aspects that are important for its provision. The concept of freedom of action for food security, or the concept of food sovereignty, which emphasizes the right of peoples to determine their own food systems to secure their own livelihoods and access to culturally acceptable food, is a necessary condition for food security. It is concluded that the inclusion in the concept of a wider number of aspects, including subjectivity, such as independence in decision-making regarding one’s own food security or food sovereignty and sustainability of food security in the long term will contribute to rethinking current strategies and practices in the field of food security.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):91-106
pages 91-106 views

Monetary and financial questions

Improving economic security of the commercial banks based on internal control of the operational risk

Veretin M.S.


New regulation of the operational risks established by Bank of Russia Regulation No. 744-P dated December 7, 2020 “On the procedure for calculating the amount of operational risk (“Basel III”) creates new opportunities for the banking sector for capital optimization to cover this type of risk. However, in recent years, financial operating losses (the damage from crimes committed in the credit and financial sector in Russia in 2021 exceeded 386 million rubles) confirm the fact that the risk from the realization of risks is more significant. The reasons are wide variety of the operational risks, high dynamics in the detection of new types, as well as their more secretive nature in detection with other risks, which has a sharply negative impact on the security of the bank. Nevertheless, the optimization is impossible without countering threats to economic security. In our opinion, the set conditions are best met by a risk-based internal control system within a particular credit institution. The Basel Committee underpin the need for building an internal control system based on the recognition and assessment of the risks assumed by the bank, and their relationship with the goals set for the credit institution. Thus, risk-based internal control system, which allows timely identification of shortcomings and violations in its activities, as well as prompt response to changes in the internal and external environment to prevent negative results, could provide such countering for the bank.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):107-119
pages 107-119 views

Central bank digital currencies: Digital Yuan and its role in Chinese digital economy development

Chen J., Nesterov I.O.


Under the impact of financial technology and digital currency, “central bank digital currency” has become an international hotspot in recent years and is also one of the current research and development priorities of China’s central bank. Preparations for China’s digital RMB began as early as 2014, and in 2017 China’s central bank clearly announced that it would fully issue the digital currency. The launch of the digital RMB is a major reform and innovation in the historical development of China’s currency. China’s issuance of a central bankdigital currency will help enhance the status of the People’s Bank, strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy, improve macro-prudential management capabilities, and promote cross-border RMB payments, etc. Up to now, China has started pilot tests in some cities, such as Shenzhen, Xian, Chengdu Suzhou. Currently, China’s digital RMB has been tested for the public, with features such as unlimited legal compensation, moderate anonymity, national statutory, dual offline payment, no cost of transaction and centralized management. With the rapid development of scientific information technology and the intensification of international competition, the digitalization of currency has become an irreversible trend. The purpose of this study is to identify the practice of digital Yuan and its role in Chinese digital economy development. The discussion tasks of this paper can be summarized as follows. Clarify the definition of digital Yuan; assess the operational model of digital Yuan; evaluate the operating framework of digital Yuan; identify the features and merits of digital Yuan application. This research adopts case study of China CBDC and literature analysis methods to analyzed the concept, characteristics and design principles of digital RMB. Then it investigates the role of digital RMB for the development of China’s digital economy, which will provide an important basis for understanding and advancing the domestic research on the central bank’s digital currency. For example, digital Yuan plays a key role in facilitating data productivity, driving digitalization of public payment scenarios and opening a healthy digital economy system.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):120-133
pages 120-133 views


Development of a methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of regional economic entities of the electrotechnical cluster

Mitrofanov E.P., Kulagina A.G., Antipova T.V., Solodova E.A.


The functioning of domestic enterprises in modern conditions is becoming more complicated due to the sanctions imposed on Russia. Constant monitoring of the level of investment attractiveness of enterprises contributes, firstly, to identifying the most vulnerable aspects of the development of the enterprise and making management decisions to eliminate them; secondly, to attracting external investment for the further development of the enterprise. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for assessing the level of investment attractiveness of the electrical industry enterprises in the region and its application to the economic entities of the region. A comparative analysis of existing methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of enterprises is used to determine the initial indicators, considering the specifics of the activities of the enterprises under study. With the help of a component analysis of the selected 14 initial indicators, such as the coefficient of financial independence, the coefficient of financial stability, the coefficient of provision with own working capital, the solvency of the enterprise, the coefficient of current liquidity, economic profitability, net profitability, profitability of inventories, profitability of non-current assets, profitability of current assets, turnover of equity, turnover of inventories, turnover of accounts receivable, etc. turnover of accounts payable, a group of three enlarged and independent factors is identified. According to the method of potential functions, functional dependencies are determined both within the factors and the factors themselves, according to which the level of investment attractiveness of the leading enterprises of the electrical industry in the region is estimated. From the authors’ point of view, the weighting coefficients of the obtained potential functions can be used by the management of enterprises as levers of influence on the level of investment attractiveness of an economic entity, especially in the conditions of the economic crisis in the country and changes in the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):134-145
pages 134-145 views


Migration mobility of the population of South Asiа: On the example of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan

Ivanova M.B., Glukhov Y.A.


The countries of South Asia are among the most densely populated on the planet. Active migration processes are observed in the region, which have an impact on the socio-economic development of countries. The statistical data and reports of the International Organization for Migration of the United Nations served as an empirical basis for studying the migration mobility of the population of the countries of South Asia. The study is based on information on the structure of emigration and immigration of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan in absolute and relative terms. For greater clarity, a cartographic method was used: author’s maps were created that reflect the specifics of migration processes in the countries of South Asia in terms of absolute and relative indicators. The scientific base concerning economic and social development of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan is systematized. The study revealed the specifics of migration flows in the countries of the region on the basis of statistical information on the emigration and immigration of citizens, calculated in absolute and relative terms. The factors influencing the migration mobility of the population are revealed. A retrospective analysis of migration processes in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan was carried out to identify similar and different features in their history that continue to influence the current migration processes taking place in the region. The reasons for the popularity of India among migrants from neighboring countries of South Asia are substantiated. The influence of the heritage of British India on modern interstate processes in South Asia is shown. The differentiation of intraregional and interregional migration flows in South Asia is analyzed. An assessment is made of the impact of migration processes on the socio-economic development of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The characteristics of the current features in the migration situation in the countries of South Asia are formulated.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):146-158
pages 146-158 views


Methodological problems of determining the customs value based on the real economic meaning of transnational companies’ operations

Artemyev A.A., Sidorova E.Y., Lasloom N.


Modern tax systems are characterized with the need for an economically justified and legally correct determination of the tax consequences of operations carried out in the context of the use of complex ambiguous models of contractual relations (business models). Taxation when using such models, as a rule, is accompanied by the need to conduct an analysis aimed at clarifying the essential economically justified reason of either the business model as a whole, or individual elements of the operations carried out, for example, the essence of certain payments made by the taxpayer or in his favor. The results of the preliminary analysis showed that one of the most relevant areas of research in this area is a set of issues related to the methodology for determining the customs value of goods as a basis for calculating customs duties. In some countries, it is one of the components of the tax base for value added tax and excise taxes paid as part of customs payments. At the same time, the study of both Russian and international experience shows the special significance of the scientific development of two directions in this area, namely: formation of methodological approaches to the concept of an actual buyer of goods, the customs value of which is determined; qualification based on the actual economically justified reason of individual payments, including those that are not formally included in the customs value of goods based on the principles formulated by the World Trade Organization. As part of the scientific development of the above questions, the results of which are presented in the article, the following research methods were used: analytical, graphic, generalization and economic modeling.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):159-169
pages 159-169 views


The artificial intelligence: Prospects for development and problems of humanization

Digilina O.B., Teslenko I.B., Nalbandyan A.A.


The research explores the main problems associated with the development and implementation of artificial intelligence technologies in human activities, as well as with the humanization of these technologies. In a broad sense, artificial intelligence is a set of algorithms and software systems that can solve some problems the way a person would do and differ in that they are amenable to learning. An analysis of the problems of introducing artificial intelligence technologies makes it possible to substantiate the main levers of state policy aimed at the development and integrated use of digital intelligent systems. The success of the introduction and dissemination of artificial intelligence technologies largely depends on the effectiveness of state regulation of this sphere, both at the state and supranational levels. The development of machine learning systems must necessarily include an ethical aspect and some restrictions, otherwise the rapid development of intelligent machines can lead to the collapse of human civilization. To avoid such a development of events, it is necessary to create a supranational system for regulating artificial intelligence. Thus, the object of study of this article is the use of artificial intelligence systems in various fields of human activity. The authors use content analysis, systemic, adaptive and synergistic methods. In addition, the authors apply modern statistics, empirical generalization and grouping.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):170-183
pages 170-183 views

Books’ reviews

Review of the monograph: Volgina, N.A., Liu, Pengfei (2023). China in Global Value Chains. Moscow: KNORUS publ., 174 p.

Orekhovsky P.A.


The review is devoted to the assessment of the monograph by N.A. Volgina and Liu Pengfei “China in Global Value Chains”. Based on the input-output methodological approach and the principle of decomposition of gross exports, the authors come to a number of relevant conclusions that depict the dynamics of China’s participation in global value chains. Thus, the last decades have been characterized by uneven growth of Chinese domestic and foreign value added: domestic value added has grown at a faster rate than foreign value added, and its share in gross exports has gradually increased. At the same time, there has been a drop in China’s “participation index” in global value chains, and this decrease was developing at the expense of a decrease in upward participation. The “position Index” was characterized by a different trend: its slow growth from negative to positive values was observed, which reflected the fact that China’s income from value-added trade was increasing. The authors’ calculations show that there are differences in the dynamics of “indices of participation” of individual industries in value chains: the share of labourintensive industries is decreasing and the share of capital-intensive industries, primarily engineering, is increasing. For the first time in Russian economic literature, this monograph critically assesses the contribution of Chinese economists to the study of the formation of global and regional value chains in China. In the final part of the monograph, the authors point out the contradictory effects of China’s participation in global value chains, which include both the benefits and risks of such integration.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2023;31(1):184-189
pages 184-189 views

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