Reconsidering international economic relations in a multipolar world as a factor in competition in cross-border markets: a prospect for sustainable development of the EAEU

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The research aims to provide a scientific and methodological development of a new approach to foreign trade regulation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), allowing for the optimization of international economic relations in the emerging multipolar world. A comprehensive analysis of EAEU economic statistics for 2023-2025 made it possible to develop a model of its foreign trade regulation under the conditions of the formation of a multipolar world. Contradictory trends in competition within the EAEU’s cross-border markets have been identified. Despite expanded opportunities for product and geographical diversification of foreign trade associated with the transition to electronic commerce, the trade balance deficit has deepened, import dependence has increased, and exports have declined. The research identifies distinctive features of the influence of international economic relations on competition in the cross-border markets of the EAEU in the era of the emergence of a multipolar world (specifically, in 2023-2025) compared to the preceding era of free trading (which lasted until 2022). One of these features is that export specialization must be implemented cautiously because it increases exports and imports. Another feature is that the geographic concentration of exports also requires restraint because it reduces exports and imports. To ensure the sustainability of the EAEU economy, a new approach to its foreign trade regulation has been developed, taking these features into account. This approach optimizes the parameters of international economic relations in the emerging multipolar world. The author’s approach envisages accelerated export diversification, a transition from a decrease to an increase in the geographic concentration of exports, a larger increase in the share of e-commerce in the export structure, and a more significant increase in the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure. The advantage of the new approach is that its implementation will enable the achievement of a positive foreign trade balance and its continued growth over time, as well as the full realization of export potential and the acceleration of import substitution in the EAEU. The quantitative aspects of the developed approach for the period up to 2028 are reflected in the created modernization scenario.

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Introduction The transition to a multipolar world represents a long-term path toward achieving more even and balanced development of the global economy - a path that all participants in international economic relations will have to navigate in the coming years. This process began in 2022, when the distorting impact of international sanctions on competition in cross-border markets rose sharply to an unprecedented level. In response, rapidly developing countries initiated a shift from free trade to hybrid foreign trade relations with flexible regulatory settings designed to safeguard economic security. Among the macroeconomic systems that acutely experienced the consequences of the global sanctions crisis is the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In recent years, significant transformations have taken place in the economies of the Eurasian states within this integration association, enabling the EAEU as a whole to successfully withstand the sanctions challenge. Nevertheless, the problem lies in the fact that, due to insufficient scientific and methodological support, the EAEU’s adaptation to the changing economic conditions associated with the establishment of a multipolar world has proceeded in a spontaneous manner. This reduces its effectiveness and limits its opportunities. Because the adaptive potential of the EAEU economy has not been fully realized, it remains exposed to high foreign trade risks (supply risks and market access risks) and, therefore, requires enhanced resilience. Customs duties, price caps, the linkage of trade conditions to the geography of participants, the constant restructuring of geographical routes, as well as organizational, legal, and logistical frameworks for conducting international trade, increase uncertainty in the EAEU’s foreign trade, complicate the satisfaction of domestic demand, and slow the pace of economic growth. In an unstable external environment, the EAEU is compelled to continuously balance between reducing imports and preventing shortages; between maximizing export efficiency and ensuring the utilization of domestic production capacities; and between import substitution and maintaining economic competitiveness. The former stable and long-standing equilibrium of the EAEU’s foreign trade (which existed until 2022) has been disrupted, while the new equilibrium remains temporary in nature (emerging at certain moments and repeatedly disturbed). The above considerations underscore the relevance of systematizing the accumulated experience of revising the EAEU’s international economic relations in a multipolar world and of conducting scientific research aimed at optimizing competition in the EAEU’s cross-border markets through the modernization of foreign trade regulation. On this basis, the objective of the present study has been defined as the scientific and methodological elaboration of a new approach to the foreign trade regulation of the EAEU, enabling the optimization of international economic relations in the emerging multipolar world. Literature review This research is conducted within the theoretical framework of the scientific concept of foreign trade regulation of the economy, according to which the sustainability of an open market economy is understood as the full realization of its production and export potential, alongside the satisfaction of domestic demand for goods and services (Popkova, Sergi, 2024). In this regard, the foreign trade balance (which, according to Amelin and Plashenkov (Amelin, Plashenkov, 2025) should be maximized) is not regarded as the sole criterion of macroeconomic sustainability; rather, it is considered in conjunction with two other equally important criteria: the volume of imports (which requires prudent minimization to avoid shortages (Kornov, Perelomova, 2025)) and the volume of exports (which merits maximization (Markov et al., 2025)). Based on a comprehensive review and substantive analysis of the existing scholarly literature on the subject, the following key parameters of international economic relations have been identified as influencing the sustainability of an open market economy and as adjustable through foreign trade regulation: · Export specialization: the higher it is, the narrower the range of exported products (Swamy, Narayanamurthy, 2025). · Geographical concentration of exports: the greater it is, the more geographically limited the external sales of products become (He et al., 2026). · The share of electronic commerce in the export structure: the larger it is, the broader the opportunities for product and geographical diversification of foreign trade (Smetanin, 2025). · The share of high-tech goods in the trade structure: the higher it is, the greater the global digital competitiveness of the economy and the stronger its standing among participants in the Fifth Industrial Revolution (Zou, Liu, 2025). Under the conditions of free trade (until 2022), there prevailed a global commitment, proclaimed by the WTO and supported by countries worldwide, including the EAEU member states, to ensure free and maximally intensive competition in cross-border markets (Evstratov, Berezhnova, 2013). Simultaneously, the parameters of international economic relations were determined based on the global competitive advantages of national economic systems. The transition to a multipolar world (since 2022) has fostered the emergence of a new EAEU approach to competition in cross-border markets, centered on flexibility. On the one hand, such competition must be sufficient (preventing market monopolization) to encourage innovative development and enhance the efficiency of economic activity. On the other hand, competition in cross-border markets should not be excessively intense (e.g., it should preclude price dumping), so as not to displace EAEU enterprises from these markets. Moreover, participation in cross-border competition should be limited to responsible market actors from friendly countries who respect the interests of the EAEU and act as reliable suppliers, guided not by sanctions but by market principles. The impact of the global sanction crisis and the establishment of a multipolar world on the EAEU economy has been addressed in a considerable number of publications (Evgrafova, Babykina, 2025; Volkov, Shangaraev, 2025). However, these works do not specify the changes in the parameters of international economic relations within the EAEU, nor do they disclose the implications of such changes for competition in the EAEU’s cross-border markets and for the sustainability of its economy. This constitutes a gap in the literature and gives rise to the following research question: “How do the parameters of international economic relations influence the sustainability of the EAEU’s economic system under the conditions of the establishment of a multipolar world?” Materials and methods This research is conducted in three stages. At the first stage, to determine how the parameters of international economic relations have changed under the conditions of the establishment of a multipolar world, the authors carried out a trend analysis of the relevant statistics (Table), comparing EAEU data for 2025 with the corresponding data for 2023. Parameters of international economic relations of the EAEU in the context of the establishment of a multipolar world in 2023-2025 Year Country Product concentration TrC١, score ٠-١٠٠ Market concentration TrC٢, score ٠-١٠٠ Trade in digitally deliverable services TrC٣, ٪ total trade High-technology trade TrC٤, ٪ total trade Imports of goods and services Imp, ٪ GDP Exports of goods and services Exp, ٪ GDP 2023 Armenia 78.0 80.6 18.2 34.9 52.31 51.57 Belarus 91.1 76.1 34.7 14.7 56.97 63.05 Kazakhstan 46.6 92.7 27.2 34.7 26.77 41.57 Kyrgyzstan 86.7 78.4 3.0 22.3 87.45 46.34 Russia 70.3 95.5 37.5 25.4 15.06 27.72 2024 Armenia 77.5 80.6 18.2 32.4 62.41 61.01 Belarus 91.5 76.1 35.7 11.7 65.56 66.03 Kazakhstan 48.6 92.7 31.9 29.8 27.68 34.65 Kyrgyzstan 56.9 78.4 16.3 22.0 95.49 36.89 Russia 70.2 95.5 21.9 20.5 18.34 22.49 2025 Armenia 51.65 57.83 43.69 30.46 76.44 73.63 Belarus 57.25 96.97 37.55 8.32 66.85 65.06 Kazakhstan 40.77 41.23 17.83 47.61 25.57 31.59 Kyrgyzstan 51.28 55.22 15.86 25.68 84.21 43.44 Russia 36.28 77.01 29.05 13.45 17.59 21.92 Source: compiled by M.S. Muratova, A.B. Abdyldaeva, U.A. Bidinov, A.I. Seliankina, O.N. Soboleva based on data from Exports of goods and services, % of GDP. World Bank. Retrieved 28 February 2026, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS; Global Knowledge Index Report 2025. UNDP, MBRF. Retrieved 28 February 2026, from https://www.undp.org/arab-states/publications/global-knowledge-index-2025; Imports of goods and services, % of GDP. World Bank. Retrieved 28 February 2026, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS At the second stage, to assess the implications of changes in the parameters of international economic relations for the sustainability of the EAEU economy in the context of the emerging multipolar world, the authors performed a regression analysis. This analysis evaluates the dependence of import volume (Imp) and export volume (Exp) on export specialization (TrC1) and geographical concentration of exports (TrC2), as well as on the share of electronic commerce in the export structure (TrC3) and the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure (TrC4). At the third stage, a scenario analysis is conducted to identify the prospects for the sustainable development of the EAEU economy by examining changes in competition in cross-border markets depending on the parameters of international economic relations. Two alternative scenarios for the next three years (2026-2028) are developed and compared. The conservative scenario assumes that the parameters of the EAEU’s international economic relations remain fixed at their 2025 levels. The modernization scenario involves selecting a new combination of parameters of international economic relations that maximizes the sustainability of the EAEU economy (increasing and rendering positive the difference between Exp and Imp, raising Exp, and ensuring a moderate, no more than 50%, reduction in Imp). Results The model of foreign trade regulation of the EAEU economy under the establishment of a multipolar world At the first stage, a regression analysis of the statistical data presented in Table was conducted, revealing the following changes in the parameters of the EAEU’s international economic relations under the establishment of a multipolar world: · Export specialization decreased by a factor of 0.64, from 74.54 points in 2023 to 47.45 points in 2025, indicating large-scale diversification of the EAEU’s foreign trade sales. · Geographical concentration of exports declined by a factor of 0.78, from 84.66 points in 2023 to 65.65 points in 2025, reflecting a significant expansion in the geographical range of the EAEU’s export markets. · The share of electronic commerce in the export structure increased by a factor of 1.19, from 24.12% in 2023 to 28.80% in 2025. It is possible that this very factor contributed to the product and geographical diversification of the EAEU’s foreign trade. · The share of high-tech goods in the trade structure decreased by a factor of 0.95, from 26.40% in 2023 to 25.10% in 2025. Although this reduction may be considered minor, it signals a decline in the level of digital competitiveness within the EAEU; in the countries that lead the Fifth Industrial Revolution, this indicator demonstrates an upward trend. · Import volume increased by a factor of 1.13, from 47.41% of GDP in 2023 to 54.13% of GDP in 2025, indicating limited progress by the EAEU in the field of import substitution. · Export volume rose only marginally, by a factor of 1.02, from 46.05% of GDP in 2023 to 47.13% of GDP in 2025, suggesting that the export potential of the EAEU economy may not be fully realized. · The EAEU’s foreign trade balance remained negative throughout the entire period under review, and the deficit deepened significantly, increasing by a factor of 4.21 - from 1.66% of GDP in 2023 to 7.00% of GDP in 2025. At the second stage, a regression analysis of the statistics from Table was carried out. This analysis made it possible to construct a system of multiple linear regression equations (1), quantitatively describing the consequences of changes in the parameters of international economic relations under the establishment of a multipolar world for the sustainability of the EAEU economy: (1) According to the system of equations (1), the considered parameters of international economic relations explain 63.40% of imports and 68.46% of exports within the EAEU. An increase in export specialization by one point is associated with a rise in import volume by 0.40% of GDP and in export volume by 0.53% of GDP. An increase in geographical concentration of exports by one point leads to a reduction in import volume by 0.83% of GDP and in export volume by 0.41% of GDP. An increase in the share of electronic commerce in the export structure by 1% is associated with a rise in import volume by 0.73% of GDP and in export volume by 0.70% of GDP. An expansion of the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure by 1% is associated with a decrease in import volume by 1.16% of GDP and in export volume by 0.03% of GDP. Scenarios for the sustainable development of the EAEU under the establishment of a multipolar world, depending on foreign trade regulation At the third stage, drawing on the system of equations (1), two alternative scenarios for the sustainable development of the EAEU under the establishment of a multipolar world, depending on foreign trade regulation, were developed for the period up to 2028 (Figure). As shown in Figure, if the current approach to the EAEU’s foreign trade regulation is maintained, with the parameters of international economic relations fixed at their 2025 levels, the conservative scenario will materialize. Under this scenario, export specialization will decrease by 36.35% (to 30.20 points), geographical concentration of exports will decline by 22.45% (to 50.91 points), the share of electronic commerce in the export structure will increase by 19.39% (to 34.38%), and the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure will decrease by 4.92% (to 23.87%). Scenarios for sustainable economic development in the EAEU under conditions of a multipolar world by 2028 Source: developed by M.S. Muratova, A.B. Abdyldaeva, U.A. Bidinov, A.I. Seliankina, O.N. Soboleva. Consequently, imports will rise by 6.13% (to 57.45% of GDP), while exports will decline by 3.38% (to 45.54% of GDP), leading to a 70.09% deepening of the EAEU’s foreign trade deficit by 2028 (to 11.91%). To prevent this outcome, a new approach to the EAEU’s foreign trade regulation has been developed, aimed at optimizing the parameters of international economic relations in the emerging multipolar world. This approach involves the following: · Accelerated export diversification (by 2028, it is recommended to reduce export specialization by 21.44%, to 37.28 points). · A shift from decreasing to increasing geographical concentration of exports (by 2028, it is proposed to raise it by 2.14%, to 37.06 points). · A more substantial increase in the share of electronic commerce in the export structure (by 2028, its growth by 54.41%, to 44.46%, is considered advisable). · A more significant expansion of the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure (by 2028, it should be increased by 20.35%, to 30.21%). The implementation of the author’s approach will enable the EAEU to embark on a modernization scenario, under which the sustainability of its economy will be maximized: the foreign trade balance will increase by 368.82% and become positive (reaching 18.33% of GDP by 2028); import substitution will take place (imports will decrease by 44.27%, to 30.17% of GDP by 2028); and exports will expand (rising by 3.96%, to 48.99% of GDP by 2028). Discussion The results obtained in this research expand the provisions of the scientific concept of foreign trade regulation of the economy (Amelin, Plashenkov, 2025; Kornov, Perelomova, 2025; Markov et al., 2025; Popkova, Sergi, 2024) by clarifying the causal relationships involved in adjusting the parameters of the EAEU’s international economic relations under the establishment of a multipolar world. It has been established that, unlike the era of free trade (which lasted until 2022), in the era of the emerging multipolar world (particularly, in 2023-2025): · Export specialization should be pursued with caution because it increases exports and imports (contrary to the findings of Swamy and Narayanamurthy (2025). · Geographical concentration of exports likewise requires prudent application, since it reduces not only exports but also imports (contrary to the findings of He, Ding, Xu, and Zhang (He et al., 2026)). The materials of this research continue the series of studies (Evgrafova, Babykina, 2025; Volkov, Shangaraev, 2025) examining the impact of the global sanction crisis and the establishment of a multipolar world on the EAEU economy. Particularly, the benefits of developing electronic commerce have been confirmed because it promotes import substitution and the realization of export potential (as evidenced by Smetanin (Smetanin, 2025)), as well as the advantages of expanding high-tech trade, which facilitates import substitution while having a negligible impact on exports (as evidenced by Zou and Liu (Zou, Liu, 2025)). Conclusion Thus, a quantitative and qualitative model of foreign trade regulation of the EAEU economy under the establishment of a multipolar world has been developed. The model has made it possible to conclude that, due to the suboptimal parameters of international economic relations, the current approach to the foreign trade regulation of the EAEU economic system leads to its instability, as evidenced by the significant and deepening trade balance deficit. To ensure the sustainability of the EAEU economy, a new approach to its foreign trade regulation has been proposed, aimed at optimizing the parameters of international economic relations in the emerging multipolar world. The author’s approach provides for accelerated export diversification, a shift from decreasing to increasing geographical concentration of exports, a more substantial expansion of the share of electronic commerce in the export structure, and a more significant increase in the share of high-tech goods in the trade structure. The advantage of the new approach lies in its potential to achieve a positive foreign trade balance and to expand it over time, as well as to more fully unlock export potential and accelerate import substitution within the EAEU.
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About the authors

Marina S. Muratova

Kyrgyz economic university of named Musa Ryskulbekov

Author for correspondence.
Email: alan1305@list.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0004-9736-9935

Candidate of Economic Sciences (PhD in Economics), researcher

58 Togolok Moldo St., Bishkek, 720033, Kyrgyzstan

Aikumush B. Abdyldaeva

Office of the Eurasian Economic Commission

Email: aikumush8@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1160-4323
SPIN-code: 7717-8183

Advisor of the division of investigation of cases of competition rules violation of the Department for antitrust regulation

2 Letnikovskaya St., bldg. 2, Moscow, 115114, Russian Federation

Urmatbek A. Bidinov

Kyrgyz economic university of named Musa Ryskulbekov; Permanent Mission of the Kyrgyz Republic to the United Nations

Email: ubidinov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0008-4001-8033

Chief Specialist, Permanent Mission of the Kyrgyz Republic to the United Nations

58 Togolok Moldo St., Bishkek, 720033, Kyrgyzstan; 866 United Nations Plaza, New York City, USA

Angelina I. Seliankina

RUDN University

Email: ang1358@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8945-2334

PhD Student (in Economics) of the International economic relations Department, Faculty of Economics

6 Miklukho-Maklaya st., Moscow, 117918, Russian Federation

Olga N. Soboleva

Vyatka State University

Email: Usr09476@vyatsu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8019-7023
SPIN-code: 9869-1763

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Dean of the Faculty of Management and Service

36 Moskovskaya St., Kirov, 610000, Russian Federation

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