Building international relations in a multipolar world based on the institution of social partnership: a path toward the sustainable development of the labor economy in Russia

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Introduction In the context of an open market economy with a high degree of economic globalization, formed in Russia over recent decades, international relations largely determine the dynamics of this economy, including developments in the labor market. The problem is that the previous institutional approach to conducting international relations has become ineffective due to the significant changes that have occurred in recent years in both the domestic and global economy. The former approach relied on the intensive attraction of low-skilled foreign workers through labor migration to compensate for shortages in labor-intensive, low-paid positions across various sectors of the Russian economy. This made it possible to ensure high capacity utilization at Russian enterprises and maintain their strong price competitiveness. Simultaneously, the Russian labor market remained relatively stable, as local workers had broad employment opportunities in better-paid positions with prospects for career advancement. A fundamental shift occurred with the onset of the Fifth Industrial Revolution. Widespread automation sharply reduced the labor intensity of most business processes. As a result, the total number of jobs across all sectors of the Russian economy has been steadily declining, while qualification requirements for workers have increased. Continuing to apply the former approach to international relations destabilizes the Russian labor market by oversaturating it with low-skilled foreign migrant labor, weakening workers’ bargaining power, and reducing wage levels. Such a trajectory of labor economy development in Russia may be described as unsustainable because it limits opportunities for highly qualified domestic workers to realize their human potential, hinders career development, suppresses living standards due to low labor incomes, and intensifies the threat of brain drain. Thus, foreign labor migration in contemporary Russia has become an “institutional trap” that must be overcome. Given the inapplicability of the previous approach under the new realities of the Russian and global economy, there is a pressing need to develop a new approach that reflects the current context and Russia’s present socio-economic priorities, particularly those related to the sustainable development of the labor economy. This research proposes to base such an approach on the institution of social partnership and, through this institution, to promote knowledge-intensive employment of domestic human resources. Accordingly, this research aims to develop research-based methodological recommendations to ensure Russia’s transition to a sustainable path of labor economy development through the structuring of international relations in a multipolar world on the foundation of social partnership. Literature review The theoretical foundation of this research is institutional economics, within which the institution of social partnership is defined as a regularly reproduced practice of mutually beneficial cooperation between employees and employers through the establishment and maintenance of long-term trust-based relationships (high mutual loyalty), with systemic consideration and joint observance of their mutual interests (Kroshechkin, 2025; Vinogradova, 2025; Vorontsova, 2025). Social partnership serves as an institutional mechanism for the practical implementation of the theoretical principles of corporate social responsibility (Smetanin, 2024). In the “knowledge society,” the sustainability of labor economy development is assessed from the following standpoints: · The share of unemployed individuals among those with higher education (Hermannsson, Scandurra, Graziano, 2024); · The share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy, including the unemployed and underemployed workers (Radlińska, 2025). From the perspective of international relations, corporate human resource management and state regulation of the labor market are reduced to influencing the transnational movement of human resources as a factor of production and external trade. In earlier literature (Ključnikov, Popkova, Sergi, 2023; Smetanina, 2015), high-technology exports are contrasted with the institution of social partnership, as they are associated with automation and workforce displacement. However, the implications of high-technology export development for the labor market remain insufficiently specified in the available literature and thus unclear, constituting a gap in research. The research question is as follows: “How does the sustainability of labor economy development (the share of higher-educated individuals among the unemployed and the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy) change as high-technology exports increase?” Several recent publications provide evidence that, despite a decline in overall labor intensity due to the increasing high-tech nature of production, more knowledge-intensive jobs are created (Saka, Orhan, 2022; Souto-Otero, Brown, Freebody, 2023), and opportunities for ICT employment expand (Kozar, Sulich, 2024; Pirvu et al., 2025). This provides grounds for the hypothesis that the growth of high-technology exports enhances the sustainability of the labor market. Materials and methods The methodological framework of this research is based on regression analysis, which is used to determine the following relationships: · The share of unemployed among individuals with higher education (SL1) and the share of underutilized human resources (SL2), according to UNDP and MBRF data, as functions of the share of highly skilled workers among the employed (EHSK) and the share of ICT workers among the employed (EICT), according to UNDP and MBRF estimates; · EHSK and EICT as functions of the share of high-technology exports in total industrial exports (HTE), according to World Bank data. The research sample (Table) includes 15 dynamically developing countries with a share of high-technology exports comparable to that of Russia in 2025 (from 5 to 21%). High-tech export and social partnership in 2025 Country High-technology exports HTE, ٪ of manufactured exports High-skilled employment EHSK, ٪ of total employment ICT employment EICT, ٪ of total employment Unemployment with advanced education SL١, ٪ of total labour force with advanced education Labour underuti-lization rate SL٢, ٪ Brazil 11.11 38.07 22.50 77.80 61.08 Chile 8.32 59.28 20.83 77.75 84.16 Colombia 9.02 36.02 21.01 62.99 70.70 Ecuador 10.00 18.14 8.24 78.67 75.54 Hungary 20.10 60.05 36.50 94.15 94.78 India 18.57 15.81 18.68 49.90 78.76 Indonesia 8.71 15.01 4.39 87.50 73.12 Kyrgyzstan 10.67 31.74 14.23 78.54 91.38 Mexico 19.30 32.85 8.76 88.87 73.62 Paraguay 10.50 29.89 17.40 90.57 72.51 Peru 5.21 22.63 8.14 79.00 81.29 Russia 9.73 75.05 29.05 95.49 89.72 SAR 5.71 19.01 13.71 52.56 17.49 Turkiye 5.14 38.02 12.85 66.39 68.80 Uruguay 9.84 37.63 34.97 91.74 66.08 Source: developed by R.V. Sharifov, I. Kuralbek kyzy, J.A. Kitsai, S.P. Goryachikh based on the materials from Global Knowledge Index Report 2025. UNDP, MBRF. Retrieved 26 February 2025, from https://www.undp.org/arab-states/publications/global-knowledge-index-2025; High-technology exports, % of manufactured exports. World bank. Retrieved 26 February 2025, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS Results The regression analysis of the data presented in Table provided a model of the impact of high-technology exports on the labor economy in 2025 in the form of the following system of linear regression equations: (1) Model (1) makes it possible to draw the following conclusions. The sustainability of labor economy development increases solely through the expansion of ICT employment, rather than through the promotion of employment among highly qualified workers in general. This is evidenced by the negative regression coefficients for the explanatory variable EICT and the corresponding coefficients for the explanatory variable EHSK in all three regression equations for SL. Thus, a 1% increase in the share of ICT workers among the employed leads to a 0.13% reduction in the share of unemployed among individuals with higher education and a 0.36% decrease in the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy. For this reason, the variable EHSK was excluded from further analysis. An increase of 1% in the share of high-technology exports in total industrial exports results in a 0.62% rise in the share of ICT workers among the employed. In accordance with Model (1), a new institutional approach to structuring Russia’s international relations in a multipolar world is proposed, based on strengthening the institution of social partnership through a reorientation toward high-technology exports. According to World Bank statistics from the aforementioned source, the share of high-technology exports in Russia’s industrial export structure has declined by a factor of 0.62 over the past five years (from 15.79% in 2020 to 9.73% by 2025). If this trend continues over the next five years (through 2030), that is, under the market self-regulation of Russia’s international relations, the share of high-technology exports would decrease to 6.00% of industrial exports. This would result in unsustainable labor market development in Russia, further destabilizing it by reducing the share of ICT workers among the employed by 14.27% (to 24.90%). In turn, this would increase the share of unemployed among individuals with higher education by 0.45% (to 95.92%) and the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy by 1.26% (to 90.85%). To prevent this scenario and place Russia on a sustainable path of labor economy development, a managerial adjustment of international relations is proposed in accordance with Figure. As shown in Figure, increasing the share of high-technology exports in Russia to the sample’s 2025 arithmetic mean (10.80%) (a target that could be achieved within the next five years (by 2030) and would require a 10.97% increase in this indicator) would lead to a projected rise (compared to 2025) in the share of ICT workers among the employed by 4.08% (to 30.24%). This would reduce the share of unemployed among individuals with higher education by 0.13% (to 95.37%) and the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy by 0.36% (to 89.40%). Prospects for changes in the sustainability of labor market development in Russia, depending on the management of international relations Source: developed by R.V. Sharifov, I. Kuralbek kyzy, J.A. Kitsai, S.P. Goryachikh. If Russia were to reach the highest share of high-technology exports among the sampled countries (20.10%) (a goal that could be achieved within the next decade (by 2035) and would require a 106.56% increase in this indicator), a further rise (compared to 2025) in the share of ICT workers among the employed by 39.68% (to 40.58%) is expected. This would result in a 1.24% decrease in the share of unemployed among individuals with higher education (to 94.31%) and a 3.51% reduction in the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy (to 86.57%). Discussion The results obtained expand existing scholarly conceptions of the institution of social partnership presented in the works (Kroshechkin, 2025), (Smetanin, 2024), (Vinogradova, 2025), and (Vorontsova, 2025) by clarifying the contribution of high-technology exports to the development of this institution. In contrast to earlier publications (Saka, Orhan, 2022; Souto-Otero, Brown, Freebody, 2023), the benefits of creating additional knowledge-intensive jobs for the sustainable development of the labor economy were not confirmed. Simultaneously, the positive impact of promoting ICT employment on such development was substantiated, supporting the findings of Kozar and Sulich (Kozar, Sulich, 2024) and Pirvu et al. (Pirvu et al., 2025). The assumption found in previous literature (Ključnikov, Popkova, Sergi, 2023; Smetanina, 2015) that high-technology exports contradict the institution of social partnership has been refuted. Thus, the study provides empirical support to earlier research (Hermannsson, Scandurra, Graziano, 2024; Radlińska, 2025) and confirms the original hypothesis that the growth of high-technology exports stimulates the sustainable development of the labor market. It is also demonstrated that ICT employment constitutes the core of the institutional mechanism underlying this development. The benefits of reorienting international relations toward high-technology exports are substantiated in terms of reducing the share of unemployed individuals with higher education and decreasing the share of underutilized human resources in the labor economy. Conclusion Thus, the model of the impact of high-technology exports on the labor economy in 2025, constructed based on official international statistics and expressed in mathematical form, has revealed the key role of ICT employment in unlocking the potential for the sustainable development of the labor economy. In accordance with this model, an institutional approach to structuring international relations in a multipolar world has been developed, grounded in the institution of social partnership. The novelty of the presented approach lies in reorienting international relations away from stimulating the inflow of low-skilled foreign migrant labor and toward expanding high-technology exports. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it would place Russia’s labor economy on a trajectory of sustainable development, characterized by reduced unemployment among individuals with higher education and a decrease in underutilized human resources within the labor economy.

About the authors

Ruslan V. Sharifov

Volgograd State Technical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: sharifov_rv@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0000-5472-7393
SPIN-code: 5705-9222

Candidate of Science (In Economic), Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Entrepreneurship

Indira Kuralbek kyzy

Professional Energy Lyceum No. 100

Email: indira_kuralbekov@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0945-0465
SPIN-code: 9282-0119

Director

41а Beishenalieva St., Bishkek, 720054, Kyrgyzstan

Juliana A. Kitsai

Volleyball club ‟Lokomotiv - Kaliningrad region”

Email: juliana_kn666@mail.ru
Doctor of Laws, Associate Professor 2 Zheleznodorozhnaya St., Kaliningrad, 236039, Russian Federation

Svetlana P. Goryachikh

Vyatka State University

Email: usr08814@vyatsu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0186-5308
SPIN-code: 2033-0941

Candidate of Science (In Economic, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Finance

36 Moskovskaya St., Kirov, 610000, Russian Federation

References

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