Impact of labor migrants from Tajikistan on the economic security of the Russian Federation

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The relevance of research In modern Russia, in recent decades, the problems of the country's security have become extremely urgent due to the impact of migration processes. Modern mass migration, acquiring a global character, is the bearer of an unprecedented contradiction between settlers and permanent residents of host countries. Migration processes affect all aspects of social life. Such an impact requires an assessment by society and the development of a migration policy of the state in order to effectively use the advantages provided by international migration of the population and, if possible, mitigate its negative consequences on the economic security of Russia. The purpose of this study is to identify criteria and indicators that reflect the relationship between migration, socio-economic processes and national security. The subject of this research is the nature of the impact of migration on the national security system and their interaction with the socio-economic development of the state. Methods of statistical and comparative analysis are used as research methods, in addition, a sociological method - a survey of experts was conducted, as well as among citizens of the Russian Federation about their attitude towards labor migrants from Tajikistan. The concept of economic security According to Alexander Litvinenko: “Economic security is a complex socio-economic category, which is influenced by constantly changing conditions of material production, external and internal threats to the economy. Economic security is the basis of the national security of the state. Ensuring national security is the main responsibility of the state, which is carried out in close cooperation with economic agents. National security reflects the ability of the relevant political, legal and economic institutions of the state to protect the interests of their key subjects in the national economic traditions and values. Therefore, its development must be considered in the general context of the formation of a national security state” (Litvinenko, 2013). I.A. Maksimtseva, D.Yu. Miropolsky and L.S. Tarasevich in the book “Eurasian Political Economy”, write that economic security creates a basis that can be used to successfully solve all other internal and external problems of the economic system that determine the direction of its further development to increase competitiveness in the world economy and ensure national security in general (Maksimtseva et al., 2016). According to the ILO approach: “Economic security consists of basic social security defined by access to infrastructure of basic needs related to health, education, housing, information and social protection, and security related to work” (ILO, 2004). G. Vechkanov understands economic security as a complex indicative system that includes national interests in the economic sphere, as well as threats and threshold values of economic security indicators (Vechkanov, 2005). Inflow of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the labor market of the Russian Federation At present, Tajikistan is the second country after Uzbekistan that provides Russia with labor migrants. According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation in 2017 (see Figure), 63,467 labor migrants from Tajikistan stayed in the Russian Federation, compared to 1997, this is 2.8 times more. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, for the period 2016-2019, 339,840 citizens of Tajikistan were registered at their place of residence in the Russian Federation[90]. According to the Head of the Department for Migration Affairs of the Ministry of Labor of Tajikistan, S. Saidov, the number of migrants from Tajikistan who were on the territory of Russia in 2019 for the purpose of work could have been about 1.3 million people (Saidov, 2019). Figure. The number of arrived migrants from Tajikistan to Russia in 1997-2017, people Source: Data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. According to the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan[91], in 2014 there were 671 thousand citizens of Tajikistan abroad, which amounted to approximately 8.13% of the country's population. According to the Federal Migration Service of Russia, at the beginning of August 2015, there were 985 thousand Tajik citizens in the country. In 2014, about 626 thousand migrant workers from Tajikistan worked here. According to the FSB of Russia, 523.9 thousand citizens of this country arrived from Tajikistan to Russia in the first half of 2019[92]. Most of the Tajik migrants in the Russian Federation are men aged 18-45 years. They work mainly in low-skilled jobs such as handymen at construction sites, movers at markets, janitors, etc. (Ulmasov, 2019). Also, many Tajik migrants come with their families to obtain citizenship and live in Russia. Now one of the popular channels for citizens of Tajikistan has become - the resettlement program. It is through this line that many Tajiks come to Russia. In 2018, more than 269 thousand people received Russian citizenship. Most often, people from Ukraine (83 thousand), Kazakhstan (45.3 thousand), Tajikistan (35.7 thousand), Armenia (27.1 thousand), Uzbekistan (21 thousand), etc.[93] Contribution of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the economy of the Russian Federation Labor migrants, in addition to their own countries, also bring profit to the economy of the host countries. Also, migrants mainly work in non-prestigious niches in the labor market with difficult working conditions, to which local residents do not always agree. Labor migrants bring profit to the RF budget in different ways, one of them is a patent. The presence of a labor patent is one of the prerequisites for the legal work of foreign citizens on the territory of Russia. In 2017, the budget of the Russian Federation received over 50 billion rubles from the sale of patents to labor migrants[94]. In 2018, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 1.7 million patents were issued to labor migrants, the income from the sale of patents amounted to 57 billion rubles[95]. Table 1 Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the budget of the Russian Federation for the period 2011-2018 Year Average price of a patent in the Russian Federation The number of citizens of Tajikistan who have received a patent Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the budget of the Russian Federation, mln Thousand people % of the total number of patents Ruble U.S. dollar 2011 2480,9057 161,1 21,1 399,67 13,6 2012 2480,9057 228,6 21,2 567,14 18,5 2013 2480,9057 301,9 22,3 748,99 23,47 2014 2480,9057 443,5 20,8 1100,28 28,5 2015 3199,8787 423,2 25,1 1354,19 22,08 2016 3706,669 393,4 25,5 1458,2 21,82 2017 3973,5296 432,8 26,2 1719,74 29,5 2018 4127,7701 443,2 26,7 1829,43 29,07 Total 2827,7 9177,64 186,3 Sources: compiled by the authors based on the data: Dynamics of exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://ratestats.com/; Federal State Statistics Service. (n.d.). Labor and employment in Russia 2019. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://gks.ru/ storage/mediabank/Trud_2019.pdf; Magazine “Glavbukh”. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://www.glavbukh.ru/ art/36974-patent-inostranec-2019 Every year since 2014 (Table 1), citizens of Tajikistan buy an average of 420 thousand patents. For the period from 2011-2018, on average 23.6% of the total number of patents are patents of citizens of Tajikistan. In about 8 years, the Russian Federation received 9.8 billion rubles from the sale of patents to citizens of Tajikistan. In addition, Tajik labor migrants leave part of their wages in the Russian economy, spending on food, transport, accommodation and other services. Citizens of Tajikistan work in all regions of the Russian Federation. But most of the migrants come to large cities, primarily to Moscow and Saint Petersburg. In Moscow, for the period from 2017 to 2019, 483,057 patents were issued to citizens of Tajikistan (Table 2), the income from advance payments for this period is approximately 2.212 billion rubles. Table 2 Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the Moscow budget in 2017-2019 Year The cost of a patent in Moscow Number of citizens who received a patent Contribution of Tajik migrants through a patent to the Moscow budget, mln Ruble U.S. dollar 2017 4200 159 305 669,08 11,48 2018 4500 152 532 686,39 10,91 2019 5000 171 220 856,10 13,25 Sources: compiled by the authors based on the data: Dynamics of exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://ratestats.com/; MigrantMedia. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https://migrantmedia.ru/; Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. Retrieved June 15, 2020, from https: //mv.d.rf/ In 2015, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced that the Moscow budget received more money from the sale of labor patents to migrants than from the capital's oil companies[96]. In 2016, income from the sale of patents to the Moscow budget increased by 30% compared to 2015 and amounted to 14 billion rubles (Sharifulin, 2016). According to the head of the Department of Economic Policy and Development Vladimir Efimov, in the first nine months of 2017, 323 thousand patents were issued to labor migrants, 46% of patents were received by citizens of Uzbekistan, 32% were citizens of Tajikistan, 12% of Ukraine, 7% of Moldova and 3% of Azerbaijan (Sarjveladze, 2017). At the end of 2017, labor migrants brought income to the Moscow budget 15.7 billion, which is 9% more than in 2016[97]. In January - November 2018, the Moscow budget received 15.9 billion rubles from the sale of patents to labor migrants, an increase of 12%[98]. In 2019, the Moscow budget revenue from the patent of labor migrants grew by 5.2% compared to 2018 and amounted to 18.3 billion rubles. In 2019, 463.7 thousand labor patents were issued in Moscow, half of the patents were issued to citizens of Uzbekistan, 38% to citizens of Tajikistan, 6% of Ukraine and 3% to citizens of Azerbaijan and Moldova[99]. Contribution of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the financial sector of the Russian Federation Tajik labor migrants have an impact on both the budget of the Russian Federation and its entire financial system. Once on the Russian labor market, Tajik migrants are already becoming the object of taxation. In addition to labor migrants, employers using labor migrant workers also pay certain portions of taxes and fees. The collection of taxes from the salaries of immigrants also grows with the growth of their inflow (state duties, advance payments, etc.). The main factors that influence the financial impact of labor migration depend to a large extent on the specific characteristics of the migrants themselves, such as reasons for migration and age. A study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has shown that low-skilled young labor migrants pay more taxes and fees than the government spends on them (Grebenyuk, 2018). Another positive consequence of labor migrants is an increase in payments for the consumption of utilities, as well as the use of dwellings by Tajik migrants. This effect depends on the amount of traffic and infrastructure development, as well as the rental market. In general, the growing influx of migrant workers stimulates the construction of hostels and residential buildings. At the same time, the compact distribution of migrants and the formation of ethnic ghettos can reduce the value of real estate in these areas, which reduces property tax revenues when calculated on a value-based basis. Also, another positive consequence of labor migrants on the financial sphere of Russia is the slowdown in inflation due to the increased propensity for savings on the part of foreign workers and transfers abroad. In fact, savings and remittances out of the country can reduce the amount of money in circulation, which should have a positive impact on inflation. Due to remittances of Tajik migrants, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is also strengthening. If labor migrants transfer money from the Russian Federation in rubles to Tajikistan, the rate of the Russian national currency (ruble) will strengthen. The greater the effect, the greater the amount of money transferred abroad. But if a Tajik migrant receives a salary in rubles, buys US dollars and makes a transfer, then the demand for foreign currency increases, which may put some pressure on the Russian ruble exchange rate. Results In our study, we showed that migrants from Tajikistan have a big influence on the economy, financial sphere, as well as on other spheres of activity of the Russian Federation. Every year Tajik labor migrants make a big contribution to the Russian economy. For example, for the period from 2014 to 2018, Tajik migrants brought 7.47 billion rubles to the budget of the Russian Federation only due to the patent (Table 1). In addition to patents, they also leave part of their salaries in the Russian Federation, paying for food, utilities and other services. It is safe to say that every year migrants from Tajikistan bring a lot of money to the budget of the Russian Federation. The role of Tajik migrants in the financial sphere of the Russian Federation is also significant. For example, the national currency of Russia (ruble) is being strengthened due to remittances from Tajik migrants. Another positive consequence is an increase in payments for the use of housing and utilities by Tajik migrants. Accordingly, we can say that Tajik labor migrants make a great contribution in all spheres of activity. Conclusion Migration processes have both positive and negative impact on the socio-political and economic situation. The emerging migration situation has a direct impact on the problems of state security, especially political and economic, since we are talking about the need to ensure economic development, the population of the territory of Russia and, consequently, the territorial integrity and security of the state. The purpose of the migration security of the Russian Federation is to ensure the national security of the Russian Federation by achieving maximum security, comfort, well-being of the population, stabilizing and increasing the number of resident population that meets the needs of the Russian economy in terms of labor, modernization and innovative development, increasing the competitiveness of their industries. Labor migrants from Tajikistan make a great contribution to the social and economic sphere of the Russian Federation. Labor migrants from Tajikistan bring a lot of income to the RF budget. Russia remains attractive to Tajik labor migrants. The advantages of Russia are the absence of a language barrier, no need to obtain a visa and work permit, a common mentality, the prospects for obtaining citizenship. However, the harshness of the migration policy and the fall in salaries in Russia may force migrants from Tajikistan to find another channel of emigration. In these conditions, Russia should reduce the unreasonable pressure of migration control on Tajik migrants in the registration procedures and checks by the police. Otherwise, the active participation of intermediaries in the employment of migrants, as well as an active policy of attracting labor migrants from Central Asian countries to the OECD will lead to the loss of a significant part of Russia's migration potential.

About the authors

Abubakr Kh. Rakhmonov

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)

Email: abubak.93@mail.ru
postgraduate student of the Department of International Economic Relations of the Faculty of Economics 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation

Roman V. Manshin

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University); Institute of Socio-Political Research - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: manshin-rv@rudn.ru
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor of the Department of International Economics of the Faculty of Economics of the Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University); leading researcher of the Institute of Socio-Political Research under the Russian Academy of Sciences 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation; 6 Fotieva St, bldg 1, Moscow, 119333, Russian Federation

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