Vol 19, No 1 (2019): China — USA: Coo-petition (Cooperation + Competition)

THEMATIC DOSSIER
A New Cold War? Causes and Future of the Emerging US-China Rivalry
Suisheng Z., Guo D.
Abstract
The Trump Administration declared China a strategic competitor and a revisionist power. It escalated a trade war to a fullfrontal clash with China. Some experts qualified it as a new Cold War between the US and China. Both countries are undergoing dramatic transformation. Their destinations will determine the course and outcome of the emerging US-China rivalry. This article argues that while engagement is now defined by competitive interests, the profound interdependence continues underpinning the bilateral relationship. Although there is no precedent to guide economic and geostrategic competition between the two largest and deeply intertwined economies and heavily militarized superpowers, the US and China must find some balance of interests with each other and avoid violent confrontation that serves neither’s interest. This level of engagement requires vision and flexibility. With strong economic interdependence, the existence of an international institutional order, limited ideological confrontation, and nuclear second-strike capability, leaders of two countries have no choice but find ways to manage their competition and continue futher engagement with each other. Authors conclude that the stronger China grows, the harder it gets for Washington to force it back down. Driving PRC into a corner is the way to make China even tougher. So it could cause more severe consequences for both countries.
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):9-21
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China in D. Trump’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy
Leksyutina Y.V.
Abstract

With Trump as a president of the US from January 2017 and his decisive actions, which have undermined many agreements reached by previous American administrations (like withdrawal from the TTP, the Paris climate agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, the UNESCO, etc.), the international system and regional subsystems are under serious reconfiguration and readjustments. This accentuates the necessity to systemize Trump’s actions and initiatives in the realm of foreign policy and foreign trade, to interpret these actions’ logic, and to evaluate the changes that Trump’s policies have brought about. It is of high importance to analyze Trump’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific which is the priority region in his foreign policy agenda and the region where two major threats to the US and its allies are coming from - the rise of China as a country that pursues unfair trade and economic policies and reveals assertiveness in securing its core interests, and the threat from the North Korea. The aim of the article is to analyze China’s place in Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy. By studying American conceptual documents, Trump’s and other American high-level officials’ speeches, the article characterizes Trump’s free and open Indo-Pacific strategy, reveals its commonalities and peculiarities vis-à-vis Obama’s rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific strategy. The article also addresses the issue of Trump’s policies in the region on the economic front, because this is where Trump administration has introduces dramatic changes. Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy is examined in the article in the context of its impact on the US-China relations. The relations between the two countries - without exaggeration, one of the most consequential for the world - may seriously deteriorate due to not only the evolving US-China trade war, but also contradictions between them over various issues in the IndoPacific region. The article analyzes the aggravation of tensions between the US and China in 2017-2018 over South and East China Seas, Taiwan issue, and North Korea issue.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):22-34
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US-China Economic Confrontation: Ideology, Chronology, Meaning
Vinogradov A.O., Salitsky A.I., Semenova N.K.
Abstract

In summer 2018 the United States launched a trade war against China. Before that, there was a chance that both sides would find a compromise, some hopes were still in place during bilaterial negotiations in May. However, new US tariffs on import from China were imposed in July and August with the total of $50 billion. Beijing responded proportionally. September brought another round of US tariffs worth $200 billion. The successful economic growth of China leads to the transformation of the world economic space, where the leading positions are still occupied by the countries of the West. The new US administration, fearing economic competition, announced a policy of containing China. In this case, Washington is going to violate the existing rules of international trade. The tension in the economic relations of the United States and China is growing. The authors look into the history, ideology and details of the conflict between two major powerhouses of the global economy. They try to investigate how both countries will be affected by the emerging trade war, which is also challenging the whole system of international trade regulation. Besides, the conflict between Washington and Beijing is understood as a fundamental shift in the world economy and politics where rising powers take the lead in globalization. For the first time in the history of Sino-American relations economic tensions between the two sides have reached such a scale. Analysis of their consequences far exceeds the standard methods of assessment of trade policy measures.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):35-46
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USA and China in Latin America: Contours of Competition
Yakovlev P.P.
Abstract

In the last decade Latin America in trade, economic and financial terms turns out to be increasingly “sandwiched” between the United States and China, which accounted for more than half of the total trade of Latin American countries, and also a crucial part of entering the region investment and credit resources. This circumstance has the strongest impact on the structure and orientation of foreign economic relations and foreign policy contacts. In the foreseeable future one of the complexities of foreign policy of the Latin American countries will be delaying action between the United States and China, are becoming involved in hybrid war for dominance in the global economy and trade. In Latin American capitals the USA-Chinese rivalry at the global level are watched with suspicion and fear. It is connected not only with the current situation, but with the dynamics of relations between Washington and Beijing, the intensification of contradictions at the global and regional levels. Latin Americans believe that initiation of trade wars and other kinds of American-Chinese confrontation could harm the development of the world economy and harm the crucial interests of the region, which is critically dependent on international goods and financial markets. The main challenge is the diversification of international relations of the Latin American States, the broadening of their economic and political partners. Only in this way can be weakened the hyper dependence of Latin America from Washington and Beijing, and reversed the negative effects of the ongoing protectionist policies and trade wars initiated by the administration of Donald Trump.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):47-58
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PEACE AND SECURITY
Beyond the Involution of Europe? Monism and Relations with Russia. Part 2
Sakwa R.
Abstract

The crisis in relations between Russia and the European Union (EU) is part of the broader breakdown of the post-Cold War security order. This essay focuses on structural interpretation and identifies four interlinked processes shaping the crisis: tension between the logic of the enlargement and transformation; a dynamic of involution and resistance; the problem of monism, whereby the expanding self is unable adequately to engage with the un-integrated other; and the recent emergence of ‘other Europes’ that may potentially overcome involution. The erosion of the Atlantic system provides an opportunity for delayed institutional and ideational innovation. Based on the methodology of classical realism and modern constructivist theories, the author analyzes how the lack of mutual understanding and mistakes in understanding the intentions and actions of Russia, on the one hand, and the West, on the other, led to deep structural and cognitive contradictions that managed to renew confrontation between the Euro-Atlantic bloc and Russia. The author comes to the conclusion that the impossibility of implementing the “Greater Europe” project with the participation of Russia led to a deepening of the contradictions between Russia and the West, and also forced Moscow to look for an alternative to European integration in the “Greater Eurasia” project. At the same time, the European Union also entered a crisis stage, as evidenced by Brexit.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):59-76
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Implications of «One Belt, One Road» Strategy for China and Eurasia
Cheng G., Chen L., Degterev D.A., Zhao J.
Abstract

The «One Belt, One Road» (OBOR) initiative was proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia, in 2013. The initiative «One Belt, One Road» could be fully treated as a comprehensive domestic and foreign policy concept. OBOR is designed to strengthen China as an attractive actor in the global market and advance its soft power. It is mostly aimed at increasing economic exchanges between China and the world. Historically the concept of the «Silk Road» was not only focused on the trade agenda. It also had rather significant cultural meaning. Obviously, the OBOR initiative could serve as a cultural bridge between China and the world and in this sense, emphases the dialogue between civilizations, not only markets and forces. With its long-term interests, China treats OBOR as a grand strategy. The initiative has been extensively discussed among academics and policy-makers both inside and outside China. The article shows also coordinating efforts of China and Russia in regional development as well as the internationalization of Central Asian region after 1991 and the role of China in this process. Contours of possible great powers rivalry as well as lack of mutual political trust between the Central Asian countries are described. This article intends to provide the analysis on the issue from the Chinese scholars’ perspective.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):77-88
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BRICS Summit in Johannesburg: More Instruments and Fewer Decisions
Ignatov A.A.
Abstract

This article presents an analysis of the outcomes of the tenth anniversary BRICS summit that took place in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the meetings of ministers of BRICS countries. The achievements of the ministerial meetings and the main summit were analyzed taking into account such parameters as the implementation of the priorities of the host country; ensuring continuity of the BRICS agenda; launching new initiatives and making decisions that are in line with the interests of the host country and BRICS partners. Beyond that, the article presents analysis of distribution of the functions of global governance (“Discussion”, “Decision making”, “Direction setting”, “Delivery”) and issues of the global governance by the number of symbols used in the texts of the Johannesburg declaration and the documents agreed during ministerial meetings. The author used the method of content analysis when reviewing the strategic documents of South Africa on issues of national development and the documents agreed during the ministerial meetings and the summit in Johannesburg, and the method of historical analysis when determining impact of South Africa on the BRICS agenda and success of the chairmanship. South Africa as the BRICS chair country preserved continuity over the key issues of the agenda (macroeconomic policy, cooperation in humanitarian sphere, etc.). Security issues were not fully developed, although they were put on the priority list by the chair country. Decisions made at the summit in Johannesburg and during the ministerial meetings result in creation of new working mechanisms (PartNIR, BRICS Vaccine Development and Research Center, etc.) that meet the current global challenges and match the interests of the parties. Nevertheless, the share of “Decision making” function decreased significantly against the background of the growing number of “Deliberation” function in the documents that were analyzed, which indicates a divergence of interests of the parties on a number of issues under discussion.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):89-99
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APPLIED ANALYSYS
Western Europe through the Eyes of Students of Kazakhstan Universities: Countries’ Images and Driving Force for their Formation
Yessimova A.B., Panarin S.A.
Abstract

The image of a country, and especially how the country is viewed from beyond its borders, is becoming an increasingly important resource capable of exerting positive or negative influence in various fields, including international relations. In the USSR, Western Europe was endowed with a dual image of cultural treasury and the territory dominated by classes and forces hostile to the socialist camp. After the collapse of the USSR, Western Europe began to be perceived as a capitalist model to be coped, and it is from those years that the contemporary ideas of the youth in Kazakhstan about its image have being originated. In order to probe them, a pilot sociological survey was conducted in two Kazakhstani universities, one of which is located in the north-east of the country, in the city of Ust’-Kamenogorsk, the second is in the south, in Shymkent. The results obtained allow us to assert with confidence that students do not have a holistic image of Western Europe; their views are dominated by images of individual European countries, and these images differ greatly in the degree of completeness. The most developed images are those of France and Germany, but even they represent no more than a set of widespread stereotypes about the economic, political, cultural characteristics of both countries. It is also striking that the images of Western European countries, which emerge from the students’ answers, are generally deprived of any meaningful and easily recognizable embodiment, i.e. they are very rarely identified with historically, politically and culturally significant personalities. According to the authors, this feature indicates that students view Western Europe most and foremost as a place where their various consumer needs can be satisfied.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):100-118
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INTERNATIONAL EDUCATIONAL COOPERATION
Japanese Universities’ Community in International Environment: Maneuvers or Heading Down?
Zhilina L.V.
Abstract

The article discusses the issues that striving for getting on the first lines of ratings, Japanese universities have faced to face with in recent years. Since 2003, when universities began to receive their public evaluation on the pages of global university ratings, the world university system has entered a new phase of its development. For many countries, including Japan, getting into the top-list of global ratings has become almost a national goal. Of the new issues that have emerged over the course of the past years, the most important at present is the “internationalization” of Japanese universities and the most obvious manifestations of this tendency are the increasing interest in world university rankings. At the same time in Japan internationalization has become both a universities and a government priority because it is seen as a sign of global competitiveness. Since 2000, the government has introduced a series of legislative and policy initiatives aimed at increasing institutional autonomy and management capabilities, enhancing evaluation and emphasizing quality, and developing internationally-competitive research via centres of excellence and graduate schools. To solve this problem the Japanese government decided to increase the number of international students from the current 100,000 to 300,000 by 2020. However now the ranking of Japanese universities is on a downward trajectory, as universities elsewhere in East Asia catch up. In order to become more competitive with universities in other countries, Japan needs to open up its universities and work positively to welcome more-and more talented-researchers and students from overseas, it also needs to increase the number of courses available in English. At the same time it needs to send more Japanese researchers and students overseas to stimulate their research and improve necessary for top-ranking standards.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):119-129
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Strategies of Foreign Universities on the ASEAN Educational Market
Asmyatullin R.R.
Abstract

ASEAN is characterized by a steady growth of the economy, a growing middle class and a large population of school age, it is one of the most promising growing markets for the export of educational services. The scale of student mobility from this region has been constantly increasing. At the same time, there is a noticeable trend towards the diversification of its geography with the emergence of new destinations and the weakening positions of traditional countries like the USA, France and Germany. The ASEAN is becoming promising not only as the largest donor of foreign students, but also as a notable player in the global educational market as a study destination. Special attention is given to the analysis of the markets of Singapore and Malaysia, as the largest regional educational hubs. The strategies of these countries are based on the creation of special economic zones in the field of education, thereby attracting leading foreign universities. This approach has a positive effect on the quality of education, increasing the attractiveness of the country as a study destination. The purpose of this article is to analyze the specifics of the strategies of foreign universities in the ASEAN countries in order to identify the potential for export of educational services by Russian universities. The strategies of foreign universities are based on a number of mechanisms, such as setting up international branch campuses in ASEAN countries, opening joint universities and operating through the franchise system. The article identifies the main problems which constrain the expansion of Russian

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):130-138
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HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Ping-Pong Diplomacy: Impact on the Establishment of Sino-US Relations
Martynenko S.E., Trusova A.A., Cherniaev M.S.
Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the role and place of sports diplomacy in international relations and foreign policy today. Sport is truly a global phenomenon. In the modern world, it is a tool of political influence with the greatest potential and opportunities. History abounds in examples of how different countries used this tool to realize their goals. The “pingpong diplomacy” confirms this fact, since it was a breakthrough in US-China relations. Thanks to the efforts of the PRC State

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):139-147
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REVIEWS
Book Review: Brands H. (2018). American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump. Brookings Institution Press, 244 p.; Kang C.D. (2017). American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the XXI Century. Cambridge University Press, 224 p
Nikulin M.A.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):148-150
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Book Review: Yu Cheng, Lilei Song & Lihe Huang (Eds.). (2018). The Belt & Road Initiative in the Global Arena. Chinese and European Perspectives. Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, 266 p
Tsvyk A.V.
Abstract

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Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):151-153
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Book Review: Danner, L.K. (2018). China’s Grand Strategy. Contradictory Foreign Policy? USA: Florida International University, Palgrave Macmillan, 219 p
Mokretskii A.C.
Abstract

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Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):154-156
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Book Review: Akimoto, D. (2018). The Abe Doctrine. Japan’s Proactive Pacifism and Security Strategy. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 246 p
Streltsov D.V.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):157-159
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Book Review: Zhang Shuhua. (2018). Eluosi zhi lu 30 nian: guojia gaige yu zhidu xuanze [The Logic of Big Powers’ Institutional Transition: 30 Years from Soviet Union to New Russia]. Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue chubanshe [Chinese Social Sciences Press], 370 p
Grachikov E.N.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):160-161
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Book Review: Shekhar, V. (2018). Indonesia’s Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy in the 21st Century. London: Routledge, 243 p
Kuklin N.S.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):162-164
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Book Review: Mittelman, J.H. (2018). Implausible Dream. The World-Class University and Repurposing Higher Education. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 262 p
Filippov V.M.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2019;19(1):165-167
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