TRENDS OF LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT


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Abstract

In the article the main directions of long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development are considered, within the framework of which the forecast and futurological approach is singled out. Their synergy in the methodology of foresight is revealed, and its positive features in relation to the previous directions are also presented. In addition, such approaches to the forecasting of the scientific and technological sphere as genetic have been explored; normative; oriented on the development of basic technologies and based on the current socio-economic needs of people. The practice of foreign countries related to the identification of critical technologies on the basis of modeled forecasts in relation to which state support is carried out is considered. The main tendencies in the field of data processing are determined, which in the future will be actively used in the formation of long-term forecasts of scientific and technological development.

About the authors

Dmitry Alexandrovich Alferev

Vologda scientific center of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: alferev_1991@mail.ru

Junior research fellow at the Laboratory of Innovative Economics, Department of Scientific and Technological Development and Economic Knowledge, Vologda Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

160014, Vologda, Gorky St., 56a

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