Estimating the oil revenues of Iran premised on the US - Iran relationship analysis

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Abstract


The Islamic Revolution of 1979 has filpped Iran's foreign policy around and country has changed cooperation with the West for confrontation with it. In this regard, over the past 40 years, relations between Iran and the US have had mostly negative dynamics, the country has been permanently under sanctions. During these 40 years, there were periods of exacerbation, in particular in 2006-2013 and after 2018, when the United States imposed serious sanctions against Iran, in particular against the country's oil and gas sector. Thanks to the nuclear deal, bilateral relations entered a short period of relief, that allowed Iran to increase its economic activity. The election of Donald Trump as US President with his aggressive foreign policy, has become the reason for the renewal of sanctions, a reduction in Iranian oil imports and Iran's loss of its positions in the global economy. The 2020 US presidential election has given new impetus to bilateral relations. Trump’s opponent Joseph Biden has announced his plans for a softer policy, including relations with Iran. Certain difficulties for Iran in rebuilding the relations and its positions in the world economy arised in view of the presidential elections in the country, due to victory of the conservatives, who do not intend to conduct a constructive dialogue with the West. All these factors are decisive for the future international position of the country, especially in the oil market. As one of the key players in this market, Iran plays an important role in maintaining the balance, especially amid low oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In this regard, the country's oil export capabilities based on the above factors are analyzed and the most optimal option is esteemed.


About the authors

Mikhail N. Sineok

Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry

Author for correspondence.
Email: sineokmisha@yandex.ru
53/2 Ostozhenka St, bldg 1, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation

master’s student, Department of World Economy

Vladimir M. Gribanich

Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry

Email: gribanich@rambler.ru
53/2 Ostozhenka St, bldg 1, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Department of World Economy

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