RUDN Journal of World HistoryRUDN Journal of World HistoryВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Всеобщая история2312-81272312-833XPeoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)2073110.22363/2312-8127-2018-10-4-393-402Oriental StudiesИз истории ВостокаResearch ArticleCharacteristics of Chinese economy in 2000-2016: economic growth sustainabilityОсобенности экономики КНР в период с 2000 по 2016 гг.: устойчивость экономического ростаMoiseevaElizaveta NikolaevnaМоисееваЕлизавета Николаевна

master student in National Research University Higher School of Economics Faculty of World Economy and International Aff airs, School of Asian Studies

магистрант Школы востоковедения факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики

elizaveta.moiseeva1@mail.ruNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»15122018104VOL 10, NO4 (2018)ТОМ 10, №4 (2018)39340214032019Copyright ©; 2018, Moiseeva E.N.Copyright ©; 2018, Моисеева Е.Н.2018Moiseeva E.N.Моисеева Е.Н.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/world-history/article/view/20731

The aim of the research is to determine through the historical perspective the reasons of China’s economic slowdown in 2000-2016 and using historical data to fi nd out whether it is possible to return to the high rates of economic growth or at least to sustain the current GDP growth rates in between 6-7%. The hypothesis is that China is unable to return to the doubledigit economic growth rates or even to sustain the current GDP growth rates in the long or shortterm. The hypothesis will be proved through mixed methodology with the implementation of descriptive and historical research designs, which involve collection, verifi cation, and synthesis of evidence from the period since 2000-s and up to the present moment.

Цель данной работы - на основе исторических данных выявить причины замедления темпов экономического роста КНР в период с 2000 по 2016 гг., а также, используя статистику прошлых лет, выяснить, возможно ли вернуться к высоким темпам экономического роста или же сохранить текущие показали роста ВВП в пределах 6-7%. Автор работы полагает, что Китай не способен вернуться к высоким темпам экономического роста или сохранить имеющиеся показатели в долгосрочной или краткосрочной перспективе. Данная гипотеза будет подтверждена применением описательного и исторического методов исследования, которые включают в себя сбор, проверку и синтез информации в период с 2000 г. и по настоящее время.

China’s economic slowdownparty-stateeconomic restructuringinnovationscosts competitivenesscheap labor forceзамедление экономического роста Китаяпартия-государствоэкономическая реструктуризацияинновациидешевая рабочая сила2016 nián guó mín jīng jì shí xiàn “shí sān wǔ” liáng hǎo kāi。zhōng huá rén mín gòng hé guó guó jiā tǒng jì jú。[A Good Start for 2016 Implementation of 13th Five-Year Plan on the National Economy. National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.] 20.01.2017. URL: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201701/t20170120_1455942.htmlGDP growth (annual %). China. World bank. 2015. URL: http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2015&locations=CN&start=1990.Gabriel Wildau. China import decline refl ects manufacturing weakness. Financial times. 08.12.2015 URL: https://www.ft.com/content/4a01cc1c-9d60-11e5-bfed-a24713ecdd4f.Exports of goods and services (% of GDP). China. World Bank. 2015. URL: http://data. worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?end=2015&locations=CN&start=2000.China: Share of exports in gross domestic product (GDP) from 2006 to 2016. Statista. 2016. URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/256591/share-of-chinas-exports-in-grossdomestic-product/.Imports of goods and services (% of GDP). China. World Bank. 2015. URL: http://data. worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?end=2015&locations=CN&start=2000.Anthony Dass. More controls in China’s complex economy. 06.02.2017. URL: http:// www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/06/more-controls-in-chinascomplex-economy/.Kevin Yao, Elias Glenn. China GDP beats expectations but debt risks loom. The Reuters. 20.01.2017. URL: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-gdpidUSKBN15406C.Gross capital formation (% of GDP). China. World Bank. 2015. URL: http://data. worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS?end=2015&locations=CN&start=2000.Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP). China. World Bank. 2015. URL: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.TETC.ZS?end=2015&locations=CN&sta rt=2000.Bloomberg Innovation Index 2017. Bloomberg Markets. URL: https://www.bloomberg. com/news/articles/2017-01-17/sweden-gains-south-korea-reigns-as-world-s-mostinnovative-economies.2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index. Deloitte. 2016. URL: https:// www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/global-manufacturingcompetitiveness-index.htmlGlobal manufacturing competitiveness index. Deloitte. Country rankings and drivers. 2016. URL: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/globalmanufacturing-competitiveness-index.html.Peter Coy. The Bloomberg Innovation Index. The Bloomberg. 2014. URL: https://www. bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-innovative-countries/.2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) Global Consumer & Industrial Products Industry Group and the Council on Competitiveness. 2016. P. 45. URL: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ global/Documents/Manufacturing/gx-global-mfg-competitiveness-index-2016.pdf.2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) Global Consumer & Industrial Products Industry Group and the Council on Competitiveness. 2016. P. 18. URL: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ global/Documents/Manufacturing/gx-global-mfg-competitiveness-index-2016.pdf.Gross domestic spending on R&D. OECD. 2015 URL: https://data.oecd.org/rd/grossdomestic-spending-on-r-d.htmGross domestic spending on R&D. OECD. 2016. URL: https://data.oecd.org/rd/grossdomestic-spending-on-r-d.htm.Research and development expenditure (% of GDP). World Bank. 2014. URL: http:// data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?end=2014&locations=CNUS&start=2000.Pollution Index for Country 2017. Numbeo. 2017. URL: https://www.numbeo.com/ pollution/rankings_by_country.jsp?title=2017CO2-emissions. Global Carbon Atlas. URL: http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2emissions.Hou Liqiang. Report identifi es sources of mass protests. China Daily. 04.09.2014. URL: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-04/09/content_17415767.htm.Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Jiming Ha, Maziar Minovi, Matheus Dibo. China’s Great Dilemma. Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group. 01.2016. P. 37. URL: http://www. goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/investment-management/private-wealth-management/ intellectual-capital/isg-china-insight-2016.pdf.Zhang Jianfeng. Xi expounds on guideline for 13th Five-year Plan. 11.03.2015. URL: http://english.cntv.cn/2015/11/03/ARTI1446559744633822.shtml.Highlights of proposals for China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. Xinhuanet. 11.04.2015. URL: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2015-11/04/c_134783513.htm.List of Countries by Projected GDP Growth. Statistics Times. 16.12.2016. URL: http:// statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp-growth.php.