<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE root>
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RUDN Journal of Political Science</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">RUDN Journal of Political Science</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="print">2313-1438</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">2313-1446</issn><publisher><publisher-name xml:lang="en">Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">49625</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22363/2313-1438-2026-28-1-25-39</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="edn">NZRLOR</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>PUBLIC POLICY AND MANAGEMENT</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И УПРАВЛЕНИЕ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="en">Transformation of Public Administration in the Context of Contingent Social Systems</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Трансформация государственного управления в условиях контингентности социальных систем</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2581-2975</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Smorgunov</surname><given-names>Leonid V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сморгунов</surname><given-names>Леонид Владимирович</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Chief Researcher</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор философских наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник</p></bio><email>lvsmorgunov@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Sociological Institute of the RAS - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the RAS</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Социологический институт РАН - филиал ФНИСЦ РАН</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-04-08" publication-format="electronic"><day>08</day><month>04</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>28</volume><issue>1</issue><issue-title xml:lang="en">Public Policy and Public Administration</issue-title><issue-title xml:lang="ru">Публичная политика и государственное управление</issue-title><fpage>25</fpage><lpage>39</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2026-04-08"><day>08</day><month>04</month><year>2026</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright ©; 2026, Smorgunov L.V.</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">Copyright ©; 2026, Сморгунов Л.В.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Smorgunov L.V.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сморгунов Л.В.</copyright-holder><ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/><license><ali:license_ref xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</ali:license_ref></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/49625">https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/49625</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>This study examines the transformation of public administration theory and practice in the new context of contingent social systems. The relationship between the bifurcation development of modern society and trends in administrative reforms is determined. The uncertainty and randomness of social and political processes is reflected in the mixed nature of administrative reforms, which simultaneously employ ideas of state bureaucracy, new public management, network governance, public governance, crisis management, and others. The persistence of bifurcation processes has posed new challenges for public governability, which has led to a search for new approaches and governance models. As the research demonstrates, this has also been facilitated by the development of the concept of contingency and its widespread adoption in governance science. Ontologically, contingency has come to be understood as a necessary variability of reality, which has been incorporated into the consideration of the conditions for the sustainable development of social systems. Concepts of crisis, prototypical, modular, and robust public governance have begun to emerge in the sociology of governance. Author focuses on modular public governance with its principles of decomposition, autonomy, interoperability, recombinability, scalability, and flexibility. The conclusion suggests that the development of various public governance models must now be analyzed in the context of socio- and political-technical systems.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p>Рассмотрены вопросы трансформации теории и практики государственного управления в новых условиях контингентности социальных систем. Определяется связь бифуркационного развития современного общества с тенденциями административных реформ. Неопределенность и случайность социальных и политических процессов выражается в смешанном характере административных реформ, оперирующих одновременно идеями государственной бюрократии, нового государственного менеджмента, сетевого управления, соуправления, кризисного менеджмента и др. Устойчивость бифуркационных процессов поставила новые проблемы для публичной управляемости, что отразилось в поисках новых подходов и управленческих моделей. Как показано автором, этому способствовало и развитие концепта контингентности и его широкое принятие в управленческой науке. Онтологически контингентность стала пониматься как необходимая изменчивость реальности, которая включалась в рассмотрение условий устойчивого развития социальных систем. В социологии управления стали формироваться концепции кризисного, прототипического, модульного, робастного (надежного) государственного управления. Особое внимание уделено модульному государственному управлению с его принципами декомпозиции, автономности, интероперабельности, рекомбинируемости, масштабируемости и гибкости. Сделан вывод о том, что динамику развития различных моделей государственного управления сегодня необходимо анализировать в контексте социально- и политико-технических систем.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>public administration</kwd><kwd>public governability</kwd><kwd>bifurcation</kwd><kwd>administrative reforms</kwd><kwd>contingent social systems</kwd><kwd>modular public governance</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>государственное управление</kwd><kwd>публичная управляемость</kwd><kwd>бифуркация</kwd><kwd>административные реформы</kwd><kwd>контингентность социальных систем</kwd><kwd>модульное государственное управление</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group/></article-meta><fn-group/></front><body></body><back><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ansell, C., Sørensen, E., Torfing, J., &amp; Trondal, J. (2025). The challenge of societal turbulence and the need for robust public governance. In C. Ansell, E. Sørensen, J. Torfing, &amp; J. Trondal (Eds.), Robust Public Governance in a Turbulent Era. Cheltenham: Elgar.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Аристотель. Никомахова этика. Соч. : в 4 томах. Т. 4. Москва : Мысль,1983.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B2"><label>2.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ansell, C., Sørensen, E., Torfing, J. (2023). Public administration and politics meet turbulence: The search for robust governance responses. Public Administration, 101, 3–22. http:10.1111/padm.12874.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гаман-Голутвина, О.В., Сморгунов, Л.В. Политическое в пространстве турбулентного мира // Полис. Политические исследования. 2023. № 1. С. 7–10. http:10.17976/jpps/2023.01.02 EDN: AMJPQY</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B3"><label>3.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Aristotle (1983). Nikomahova etika. Vol. 4. Moscow: Myisl.(In Russian).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гидденс Э. Устроение общества: Очерк теории структурации. Москва : Академический проект, 2003.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B4"><label>4.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Barabanov, O., Bespalov, A., Bordachev, T., Lukyanov, F., Sushentsov, A., Timofeev, I. (2025). Dr. Chaos or: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Disorder. The Annual Report of the Valdai Discussion Club, 28 p. (Retrieved from https://ru.valdaiclub.com/a/reports/doktor-khaos-ili-kak-perestat-boyatsya/) (In Russian).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Купряшин Г.Л. О робастности системы государственного управления в турбулентной среде // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2023. Т. 4. № 61. С. 236–241. https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2023_4_241-246 EDN: UTISKR</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B5"><label>5.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Campagnolo, D., Camuffo A. (2010). The Concept of Modularity in Management Studies: A Literature Review. International Journal of Management Reviews, 12(3), 259–283. http:10.1111/j.1468-2370.2009.00260.x.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Майоров Г.Г. Дунс Скот как метафизик // Блаженный Иоанн Дунс Скот. Избранное / сост. и общ. ред. Г.Г. Майорова. Москва : Изд-во Францисканцев, 2001. С. 28–83.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B6"><label>6.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Gaman-Golutvina, O.V., &amp; Smorgunov, L.V. (2023). Politics in the Space of a Turbulent World. Political Studies. Polis, 1, 7–10. http:10.17976/jpps/2023.01.02 (In Russian).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Мейясу К. После конечности. Эссе о необходимости контингентности. Екатеринбург, Москва : Кабинетный ученый, 2015.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B7"><label>7.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Giddens, A. (2003). The Structure of Society: An Essay on the Theory of Structure. Moscow: Akademicheskiy proekt.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Покок Дж. Момент Макиавелли. Политическая мысль Флоренции и атлантическая республиканская традиция. Москва : Новое литературное обозрение, 2020.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B8"><label>8.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Goldfinch, S.F. (2023). The challenge of public administration reform: introduction to the Handbook of Public Administration Reform. Handbook of Public Administration Reform.  S.F. Goldfinch (Ed.). Cheltenham: Elgar, 1–26.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Хуэй Ю. Рекурсивность и контингентность. Москва : V-A-C Press, 2020.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B9"><label>9.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hadiyanti, E., Jannah, L.M., Lutfi, A. (2024). The Development of Contingency Theory in the Public Sector: An Overview. Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, 2(9), 1–14.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ansell C., Sørensen E., Torfing J. Public administration and politics meet turbulence: The search for robust governance responses // Public Administration. 2023. Vol. 101. Р. 3–22. http://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12874 EDN: RMQDKH</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B10"><label>10.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hofkirchner, W. (2020). A paradigm shift for the Great Bifurcation. Biosystems, 197, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104193</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ansell C., Sørensen E., Torfing J., Trondal J. The challenge of societal turbulence and the need for robust public governance // Robust Public Governance in a Turbulent Era / edited by C. Ansell, E. Sørensen, J. Torfing, &amp; J. Trondal. Cheltenham : Elgar, 2025.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B11"><label>11.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hollis, S., Ekengren, M. (2025). The Reality of Contingency: Implications for Crisis Management. Risk, Hazards &amp; Crisis, in Public Policy, 16(3), 1–11.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Campagnolo D., Camuffo A. The Concept of Modularity in Management Studies: A Literature Review // International Journal of Management Reviews. 2010. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 259–283. http:10.1111/j.1468-2370.2009.00260.x</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B12"><label>12.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hui, Y. (2020). Recursivity and Contingency. Moscow: VAC Press (In Russian).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Goldfinch S.F. The challenge of public administration reform: Introduction to the Handbook of Public Administration Reform // Handbook of Public Administration Reform / ed. S.F. Goldfinch. Cheltenham: Elgar, 2023. P. 1–26.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B13"><label>13.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Itzkowitz, G. (1996). Contingency Theory. Rethinking the Boundaries of Social Thought. L.: Bloomsbury Publishing.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hadiyanti E., Jannah L.M., Lutfi A. The Development of Contingency Theory in Public Sector: An Overview // Enrichment: Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development. 2024. Vol. 2. No. 9. P. 1–14. http://doi.org/10.55324/enrichment.v2i7.169 EDN: XICNUU</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B14"><label>14.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Jha, S.K., Gold, E.R., Dubé, L. (2021). Modular Interorganizational Network Governance: A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Complex Social Problems. Sustainability, 13, 1–20.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hofkirchner W. A paradigm shift for the Great Bifurcation // Biosystems. 2020. Vol. 197. P. 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104193 EDN: IFEOIH</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B15"><label>15.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Johns, F. (2022). State Changes: Prototypical Governance Figured and Prefigured. Law and Critique, 33(3), 251–271.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hollis S., Ekengren M. The Reality of Contingency: Implications for Crisis Management // Risk, Hazards &amp; Crisis in Public Policy. 2025. Vol. 16. No. 3. P. 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.70020</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B16"><label>16.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kemp, S., Holmwood, J. (2012). Questioning Contingency in Social Life: Roles, Agreement and Agency. Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior, 42(4), 403–424. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-5914.2012.00499.x</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Itzkowitz G. Contingency Theory. Rethinking the Boundaries of Social Thought. London : Bloomsbury Publishing, 1996.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B17"><label>17.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kim, S. (2018). Contingency and responsibility in Confucian political theory. Philosophy &amp; Social, Criticism, 44(6), 615–636. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453715601465</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Jha S.K., Gold E.R., Dubé L. Modular Interorganizational Network Governance: A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Complex Social Problems // Sustainability. 2021. Vol. 13. P. 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810292 EDN: IUCCPN</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B18"><label>18.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kuipers, S.L. (2022). Crisis management in government. In K. Schedler (Ed.), Elgar encyclopedia of public management (pp. 217–221). Cheltenham, UK: Elgar. http:10.4337/9781800375499.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Johns F. State Changes: Prototypical Governance Figured and Prefigured // Law and Critique. 2022. Vol. 33. No. 3. P. 251–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10978-022-09329-y EDN: UKMDLX</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B19"><label>19.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Kupyrashin, G.L. (2023). On the Robustness of the Public Administration System in a Turbulent Environment. Journal of the New Economic Association, 2023, 4(61), 236–241. http:10.31737/22212264_2023_4_236-241.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kemp S., Holmwood J. Questioning Contingency in Social Life: Roles, Agreement and Agency. Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior. 2012. Vol. 42, No. 4. P. 403–424. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1468-5914.2012.00499.x</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B20"><label>20.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Langlois, R.N. (2002). Modularity in technology and organization. Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization, 49(1), 19–37.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kim S. Contingency and responsibility in Confucian political theory // Philosophy &amp; Social Criticism. 2018. Vol. 44. No. 6. P. 615–636. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453715601465</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B21"><label>21.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Manning, S., Reinecke J. (2016). A Modular Governance Architecture In-the-Making: How Transnational Standard-Setters Govern Sustainability Transitions. Research Policy, 45(3): 618–33.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Kuipers S.L. Crisis management in government // Elgar encyclopedia of public management / K. Schedler (ed.), Cheltenham, UK : Elgar, 2022. P. 217–221. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800375499</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B22"><label>22.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Meillassoux, Q. (2008). After finitude. Essay on the necessity of contingency. London, New York: Continuum.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Langlois R.N. Modularity in technology and organization // Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization. 2002. Vol. 49. No. 1. P. 19–37.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B23"><label>23.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Palonen, K. (1999). Contingency in political theory. Redescription. Political Thought, Conceptual History and Feminist Theory, 3(1), 5–10.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Manning S., Reinecke J. A Modular Governance Architecture In-the-Making: How Transnational Standard-Setters Govern Sustainability Transitions // Research Policy. 2016. Vol. 45. No. 3. P. 618–633.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B24"><label>24.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Pocock, Dj. (2020). The Machiavelli Moment. The Political Thought of Florence and the Atlantic Republican Tradition. Moscow: Novoe literaturnoe obozrenie.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Palonen K. Contingency in political theory // Redescription. Political Thought, Conceptual History and Feminist Theory. 1999. Vol. 3. No. 1. P. 5–10.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B25"><label>25.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Public governance and administration reforms. (2023). OECD Site: Retrieved September 24, 2025, from https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/public-governance-and-administration-modernisation.html</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Strydom P. Triple contingency: The theoretical problem of the public in communication societies // Philosophy &amp; Social Criticism. 1999. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/019145379902500201 EDN: JOZKVP</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B26"><label>26.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Strydom, P. (1999). Triple contingency: The theoretical problem of the public in communication societies. Philosophy &amp; Social, Criticism, 25(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/019145379902500201</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Tribe K. Capitalism, Contingency and Economic Development. The Routledge International Handbook on Max Weber / ed. A. Sica. London: Routledge, 2022.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B27"><label>27.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Tribe, K. (2022). Capitalism, Contingency and Economic Development. The Routledge International Handbook on Max Weber. A. Sica  (Ed.). L.: Routledge.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Vanderstraeten R. Parsons, Luhmann and the Theorem of Double Contingency //  Journal of Classical Sociology. 2002. Vol. 2. No. 1. P. 77–92. https://doi.org/10.1177/1468795X02002001684</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B28"><label>28.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Vanderstraeten, R. (2002). Parsons, Luhmann and the Theorem of Double Contingency. Journal of Classical Sociology, 2(1), 77–92. https://doi.org/10.1177/1468795X02002001684</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Volinz L. Governance through pluralization: Jerusalem’s modular security provision // Security Dialogue. 2018. Vol. 49. No. 6. P. 438–456. https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010618789758</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B29"><label>29.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Volinz, L. (2018). Governance through pluralization: Jerusalem’s modular security provision. Security Dialogue, 49(6), 438–456. https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010618789758</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Waesche N. Modular Government: An Industry Perspective on Public Innovation // Halduskultuur. 2008. Vol. 9. P. 52–59.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B30"><label>30.</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Waesche, N. (2008). Modular Government: An Industry Perspective on Public Innovation. Halduskultuur, 9, 52–59.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zimmerman P., Ofori M., Barrett D., Soler J., Harriman A. Considerations and examples of a modular open systems approach in defense systems // The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation. 2018. Vol. 16. No. 4. P. 373–388.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="B31"><label>31.</label><mixed-citation>Zimmerman, P., Ofori, M., Barrett, D., Soler, J., &amp; Harriman, A. (2018). Considerations and examples of a modular open systems approach in defense systems. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 16(4), 373–388.</mixed-citation></ref></ref-list></back></article>
