RUDN Journal of Political ScienceRUDN Journal of Political ScienceВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология2313-14382313-1446Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)4801810.22363/2313-1438-2025-27-4-833-847FXXUZMСOUNTRY-SPECIFIC CASE STUDIESСТРАНОВОЙ АНАЛИЗResearch ArticleNatural Resources, Ethnopolitical Conflicts and Risk Factors for Sustainable Development in the Democratic Republic of the CongoПриродные ресурсы, этнополитические конфликты и факторы риска устойчивого развития Демократической Республики Конгоhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-2037KorotayevAndrey V.КоротаевАндрей Витальевич

DrSc (History), PhD (Middle Eastern Studies), Director of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Professor of the Department of Globalistics, Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

доктор исторических наук, директор Центра изучения стабильности и рисков НИУ ВШЭ; профессор кафедры глобалистики факультета глобальных процессов, Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

akorotayev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-1860-1279ChernomorchenkoIvan Yu.ЧерноморченкоИван Юрьевич

Research Intern of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis

стажер-исследователь Центра изучения стабильности и рисков

chekoioan@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-7108-847XYakubchukAlexander S.ЯкубчукАлександр Сергеевич

DrSc (Geological and Mineralogical Sciences), Associate Professor of the Department of Geology and Geochemistry of Ore Deposits, Faculty of Geology

доктор геолого-минералогических наук, доцент кафедры геологии, геохимии и экономики полезных ископаемых геологического факультета

slaurum@aol.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-0193SergeevStepan S.СергеевСтепан Сергеевич

Assistant of the Department of Innovation Development Economics, Faculty of Public Administration

ассистент кафедры экономики инновационного развития Факультета государственного управления

sergeevss@spa.msu.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-9032-538XGlushchenkoAndrey V.ГлущенкоАндрей Владимирович

Head of the 5th Administration of Marketing Administration of Rosoboronexport; PhD Student of the Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

начальник 5-го управления Департамента маркетинговой деятельности АО «Рособоронэспорт», аспирант Института стран Азии и Африки, Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова

gllev@yandex.ruHSE UniversityВысшая школа экономикиLomonosov Moscow State UniversityМосковский государственный университет им. М.В. ЛомоносоваJoint Stock Company “Rosoboronexport”Акционерное общество «Рособоронэкспорт»31122025274Politics in Africa and Africa in PoliticsПолитика в Африке и Африка в политике83384712012026Copyright ©; 2025, Korotayev A.V., Chernomorchenko I.Y., Yakubchuk A.S., Sergeev S.S., Glushchenko A.V.Copyright ©; 2025, Коротаев А.В., Черноморченко И.Ю., Якубчук А.С., Сергеев С.С., Глущенко А.В.2025Korotayev A.V., Chernomorchenko I.Y., Yakubchuk A.S., Sergeev S.S., Glushchenko A.V.Коротаев А.В., Черноморченко И.Ю., Якубчук А.С., Сергеев С.С., Глущенко А.В.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/48018

The issue of natural resources as a driver of political destabilization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a critical focus of scholarly analysis. However, the complex interplay of resources with weak institutions, demographic pressures, ethnic fragmentation, and external intervention requires deeper systematic examination. Studying these mechanisms, determining their specific causal pathways and combined destabilizing effects, is paramount for political science and development studies, as it allows for assessing for multifaceted challenges to sustainable peace and governance in resource-rich, fragile states. A systemic interdisciplinary approach, combining political science, demographic, economic and ecological analysis, was employed to understand the destabilizing dynamics. Case study and content analysis of specific conflicts (Bateke Plateau, Eastern Kivu) enabled the identification of causal links and the role of resource control. It has been found that resources catalyze ethnopolitical conflicts through four interconnected mechanisms: the institutional, the socio-demographic, the ethnic, and the external. Environmental degradation and climate change impacts further exacerbate these dynamics by intensifying competition over land, water, and livelihoods, provoking displacement and new conflict lines. Unlike simplistic notions of the “resource curse”, this study demonstrates that sustainable development in the DRC is contingent upon fundamentally strengthening state and political institutions to manage resources, mitigate interconnected socio-economic and environmental threats, and counter fragmentation, as the primary prerequisite for stability.

Исследование направлено на выявление механизмов, через которые природные ресурсы становятся фактором политической дестабилизации в Демократической Республике Конго (ДРК). Методология основана на междисциплинарном системном подходе, сочетающем политологический, демографический, экономический и экологический анализ, а также кейс- и контент-анализ конкретных конфликтов (Батеке, Конфликт в Восточном Киву). Результаты исследования показывают, как ресурсы становятся катализатором этнополитических конфликтов через четыре ключевых механизма: институциональный, социально-демографический, этнический и внешний. Экологические и климатические изменения усиливают эти процессы, обостряя конкуренцию за землю, воду и другие ресурсы, провоцируя миграционные и этнические конфликты. Сделан вывод, что устойчивое развитие в ДРК возможно исключительно при укреплении государственных и политических институтов, преодолении взаимозависимых социально-экономических и экологических вызовов и угроз.

Democratic Republic of the Congonatural resourcespolitical destabilizationinterethnic relationsethnopolitical conflictsinstitutional factorsyouth bulgeconflict mineralsДемократическая Республика Конгоприродные ресурсыполитическая дестабилизациямежэтнические отношенияэтнополитические конфликтыинституциональные факторымолодежный бугорконфликтные минералыРабота выполнена при поддержке Программы развития МГУ, проект № 24-Ш05-07 на тему «Исследование потенциала природных ресурсов и новых форматов отношений между Россией и странами Азии и Африки: моделирование экономического, политического и культурного сотрудничества».The research was supported by the MSU Development Program, Project No. 24-Ш05-07, “Exploring the Potential of Natural Resources and New Formats of Relations between Russia and the Countries of Asia and Africa: Modeling Economic, Political, and Cultural Cooperation.”Abdulwahab, L.O., & Firmansyah, E.A. (2024). 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