RUDN Journal of Political ScienceRUDN Journal of Political ScienceВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология2313-14382313-1446Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)4801610.22363/2313-1438-2025-27-4-805-815GPMENKMACRO-REGIONAL ISSUESМАКРОРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫResearch ArticleFrom Local Conflicts to Global Implications: The Ripple Effects of Political Violence in the Horn of AfricaОт локальных конфликтов к глобальным последствиям: эффект домино политического насилия на Африканском Рогеhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1946-5521LapenkoMarina V.ЛапенкоМарина Владимировна

PhD of Historical Science, Associate Professor at Department of Comparative Politics

кандидат исторических наук, доцент кафедры сравнительной политологии

lapenko-mv@rudn.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-7656-2363MucheYayehe AsmareМучеЯйехе Асмаре

Master Student, Department of Comparative Politics

магистр кафедры сравнительной политологии

yayeheasmare@gmail.comRUDN UniversityРоссийский университет дружбы народов31122025274Politics in Africa and Africa in PoliticsПолитика в Африке и Африка в политике80581512012026Copyright ©; 2025, Lapenko M.V., Muche Y.A.Copyright ©; 2025, Лапенко М.В., Муче Я.А.2025Lapenko M.V., Muche Y.A.Лапенко М.В., Муче Я.А.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/48016

Political violence in the Horn of Africa has significant implications that resonate beyond local borders, impacting global security and international relations. This study aims to investigate the historical and socioeconomic factors contributing to regional political violence and to assess how these local conflicts cascade into global security dynamics. A historical-analytical approach was applied, drawing on various data sources, including conflict statistics and security analysis reports, to trace the pathways through which local violence escalates into broader geopolitical concerns. The findings reveal that local conflicts in the Horn of Africa contribute to transnational security threats such as terrorism, piracy, and illegal arms trade, while also influencing migration patterns and humanitarian crises that affect multiple regions worldwide. The analysis shows a strong linkage between regional instability and shifts in international relations, with increased intervention efforts by neighboring countries and international organizations. The study further identifies the impact of these conflicts on economic stability and the strategic re-calibration of foreign policies. In conclusion, understanding the ripple effects of political violence in the Horn of Africa is essential for developing effective policy strategies aimed at conflict resolution and global stability. Addressing these conflicts requires a comprehensive approach that considers both the regional and global dimensions of security.

Политическое насилие на Африканском Роге имеет значительные последствия, выходящие далеко за пределы локальных границ и оказывающие влияние на глобальную безопасность и международные отношения. Цель данного исследования - изучить исторические и социально-экономические факторы, способствующие региональному политическому насилию, и оценить, каким образом эти локальные конфликты трансформируются в глобальную динамику безопасности. В работе применяется историко-аналитический подход, опирающийся на различные источники данных, включая статистику конфликтов и отчеты по состоянию режима безопасности, для анализа эскалации локального насилия и его трансформации в более широкую геополитическую проблему. Результаты показывают, что локальные конфликты на Африканском Роге способствуют возникновению транснациональных угроз безопасности, таких как терроризм, пиратство и незаконная торговля оружием, а также влияют на миграционные процессы и гуманитарные кризисы, затрагивающие многие регионы мира. Анализ демонстрирует тесную связь между региональной нестабильностью и изменениями в действиях международных акторов, выражающимися в усилении интервенционных усилий соседних стран и международных организаций. В исследовании также выявляется влияние этих конфликтов на экономическую стабильность и стратегическую перекалибровку внешней политики. В целом, понимание «эффекта домино» в распространении политического насилия на Африканском Роге имеет важное значение для разработки эффективных политических стратегий, направленных на урегулирование региональных конфликтов и обеспечение глобальной стабильности. Разрешение этих конфликтов требует комплексного подхода, учитывающего как региональные, так и глобальные аспекты безопасности.

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