RUDN Journal of Political ScienceRUDN Journal of Political ScienceВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология2313-14382313-1446Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)3111310.22363/2313-1438-2022-24-2-247-267CHALLENGES OF POPULISM AND CONSERVATIVE NATIONALISMВЫЗОВЫ ПОПУЛИЗМА И КОНСЕРВАТИВНОГО НАЦИОНАЛИЗМАResearch ArticlePopulist Presidents and Civil Society on Latin American DemocraciesПрезиденты-популисты и гражданское общество в латиноамериканских демократияхhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5457-5588MalashenkovaAngelina A.МалашенковаАнгелина Александровна

graduate student of the School of Governance and Politics

студентка магистратуры факультета управления и политики

angelina9909@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1908-0613KharitonovaOxana G.ХаритоноваОксана Геннадьевна

PhD in Political Science, Associate Professor of Comparative Politics

кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры сравнительной политологии

o.haritonova@inno.mgimo.ruMoscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian FederationМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) Министерства иностранных дел Российской Федерации30052022242World Politics and International Security Facing New NationalismМировая политика и международная безопасность перед вызовами нового национализма24726730052022Copyright ©; 2022, Malashenkova A.A., Kharitonova O.G.Copyright ©; 2022, Малашенкова А.А., Харитонова О.Г.2022Malashenkova A.A., Kharitonova O.G.Малашенкова А.А., Харитонова О.Г.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/31113

The article considers the issue of populism in Latin American democracies and their evolution. The authors identify the factors leading to the electoral success of populist presidents in Latin American democracies. 13 cases were selected for research: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela. The authors formulated two hypotheses, according to which the probability of electoral success for populist presidents increases in case of low political participation rates, undeveloped civil society; in case of increasing levels of economic development, inequality and inflation. The dataset includes 377 country/year observations on 65 presidents from 1991 to 2019. The hypotheses were tested by logistic regression analysis. The independent variables for the electoral success of populist presidents were determined as the following: the level of civic participation, the level of the civil society development, political participation, economic inequality, and economic development. The quantitative analysis identified two variables with the most significant impact on the dependent variable, i.e., the civil society index and the level of GDP per capita. The article concludes that in the third-wave Latin American democracies high levels of civil participation and sustainable civil society can hinder the rise of populist leaders.

Статья посвящена проблематике популизма в латиноамериканских демократиях и путям их эволюции. Авторами определены факторы, влияющие на успех популизма в демократиях Латинской Америки. Для исследования были выбраны 13 кейсов: Аргентина, Чили, Уругвай, Венесуэла, Боливия, Бразилия, Перу, Эквадор, Колумбия, Доминиканская Республика, Никарагуа, Сальвадор, Гондурас. Сформулированы две гипотезы, согласно которым вероятность победы на выборах популистов увеличивается при низких уровнях политического участия, слабом гражданском обществе, при высоком уровне экономического развития, неравенства и инфляции. Собрана база данных по 65 президентам с 1991 по 2019 г. (377 наблюдений). Для выявления связи между переменными авторы используют метод множественного логистического регрессионного анализа. Независимыми переменными выступают социально-экономические показатели, такие как: уровень гражданского участия, развития гражданского общества, политического участия, экономического неравенства, экономического развития. Результаты анализа позволили выделить две переменные, которые оказывают наиболее заметное влияние на вероятность прихода к власти лидера-популиста: уровень развития гражданского общества и экономического развития. Проведенное исследование позволило подтвердить, что в странах Латинской Америки высокий уровень гражданского участия и развитое гражданское общество могут препятствовать электоральной победе лидеров-популистов.

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