RUDN Journal of Political ScienceRUDN Journal of Political ScienceВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология2313-14382313-1446Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)2327910.22363/2313-1438-2020-22-1-81-91POLITICAL PROCESSES IN CONTEMPORARY WORLDПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ В СОВРЕМЕННОМ МИРЕResearch ArticleMigration Policy in the Programs of FRG’s Leading Political PartiesМиграционная политика в программах ведущих политических партий ФРГAmiantovaIrina S.АмиантоваИрина Сергеевна

PhD in Political Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Management

кандидат политических наук, доцент кафедры политического анализа и управления

amiantova_is@rudn.ruIvanovaEkaterina A.ИвановаЕкатерина Александровна

PhD in Political Sciences, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Political Analysis and Management

кандидат политических наук, старший преподаватель кафедры политического анализа и управления

ivanova-eka@rudn.ruPeoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)Российский университет дружбы народов15122020221VOL 22, NO1 (2020)ТОМ 22, №1 (2020)819126032020Copyright ©; 2020, Amiantova I.S., Ivanova E.A.Copyright ©; 2020, Амиантова И.С., Иванова Е.А.2020Amiantova I.S., Ivanova E.A.Амиантова И.С., Иванова Е.А.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/23279

The presented study is devoted to the reflection of migration policy concepts in the program documents of the leading political parties in Germany. The purpose of this work is to conduct a comprehensive assessment of migration policy concepts of Germany’s leading parties, incorporated in their programs. The research methodology is based on a combination of comparative descriptive analysis and elements of case study. The empirical basis of the research is constituted by program materials of 6 parties and party blocs, whose representatives became part of the Bundestag, according to the results of the 2017 federal elections. The author believes that despite certain differences, the majority of parties hold to the consensus stance on migration policy, which may entail maintaining the current course for the foreseeable future. Significant changes in migration policy are possible only if the leadership of the CDU/CSU is able to convince the leaders of the SPD to continue tightening migration policy in terms of restricting the flow of refugees. Attempting to sustain the existing model of migration policy with the current dynamics of the socioeconomic situation can lead to an increase in the popularity of AfD. However, this course of events does not threaten the stability of German political system, provided AfD does not ally itself with another influential party.

Представленное исследование посвящено отображению концепций миграционной политики в программных документах ведущих политических партий Германии. Целью данной работы является проведение комплексной оценки концепций миграционной политики ведущих партий Германии, закрепленных в их программах. Методология исследования выстраивается за счет комбинации сравнительного дескриптивного анализа и элементов кейс-стади. В роли эмпирической базы работы выступил комплекс материалов программ 6 партий и партийных блоков, представители которых вошли в состав Бундестага по результатам федеральных выборов 2017 г. Автор приходит к выводу, что представители большинства партий, несмотря на отдельные разногласия, придерживаются консенсусной позиции в отношении миграционной политики. Это может означать сохранение текущего курса в обозримом будущем. Существенные изменения в миграционной политике возможны лишь в случае, если руководство ХДС/ХСС сумеет убедить лидеров СДПГ пойти на ужесточение миграционной политики в плане ограничения потока беженцев. Сохранение нынешней модели миграционной политики при аналогичной динамике социальноэкономической конъюнктуры способно обернуться ростом популярности АдГ. Однако это не приведет к дестабилизации политической системы Германии, если АдГ не сможет заключить альянс с другой влиятельной партией.

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