RUDN Journal of Political ScienceRUDN Journal of Political ScienceВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Политология2313-14382313-1446Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)1696610.22363/2313-1438-2017-19-3-245-258ARTICLESСТАТЬИResearch ArticleBREXIT: THE ASSUMPTIONS, FACTORS AND PROSPECTS. PART IIBREXIT: ПРЕДПОСЫЛКИ, ФАКТОРЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ. ЧАСТЬ IIKhlebnikovI EХлебниковИ Е

Хлебников Иван Евгеньевич - аспирант кафедры сравнительной политологии Российского университета дружбы народов

anithageneis@gmail.comRUDN University (Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia)Российский университет дружбы народов15122017193VOL 19, NO3 (2017)ТОМ 19, №3 (2017)24525811102017Copyright ©; 2017, Khlebnikov I.E.Copyright ©; 2017, Хлебников И.Е.2017Khlebnikov I.E.Хлебников И.Е.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/political-science/article/view/16966

The article contains the analysis of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. Within the scope of the analysis fall such aspects of it as its preconditions, its context, arguments of both its proponents and opponents, as well as the factors that influenced its outcome and its possible consequences. The relevance of the article is due to the importance of the referendum in question and its possible influence on the future of the European Union.

В статье анализируется прошедший в Великобритании референдум о членстве страны в Европейском Союзе. Дается анализ предпосылок, приведших к референдуму, контекста, в котором он происходил, анализируются аргументы, как сторонников, так и противников членства страны в ЕС, а также факторы, повлиявшие на исход референдума, и те последствия, к которым он может при-вести. Актуальность статьи заключается важности прошедшего референдума и его влиянии на будущее Европейского Союза

BrexitVoteLeaveVoteRemainGreat BritainUnited KingdomEuropean UnionEUreferendumBrexitVoteLeaveVoteRemaineuroscepticismВеликобританияБританияЕвропейский СоюзЕСреферендумеврооптимизмевроскептицизмDrobnickij D. Brexit i novaja slozhnost'. Russkaja ideja. 27 ijunja 2016. Available from: http://politconservatism.ru/articles/brexit-i-novaya-slozhnost (in Russ).Дробницкий Д. Brexit и новая сложность // Русская iдея. 27 июня 2016. URL: http://politconservatism.ru/articles/brexit-i-novaya-slozhnost.Benjamin C. Britain chooses Freedom over Fear. Sargon of Akkad Channel. 24 June 2016. Available from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpo9qzsfL4.Benjamin C. Britain chooses Freedom over Fear // Sargon of Akkad Channel. 24 June 2016. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpo9qzsfL4.Burn-Murdoch J. Brexit: voter turnout by age. Financial Times. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results/.Burn-Murdoch J. Brexit: voter turnout by age // Financial Times. 24 June 2016. URL: http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results.Brexit Polls Using Metafused Technology. Metafused Blog. 15 June 2016. Available from: http://blog.metafused.com/2016/06/brexit.html.Brexit Polls Using Metafused Technology // Metafused Blog. 15 June 2016. URL: http://blog.metafused.com/2016/06/brexit.html.Cooper C. EU referendum: What effect would Brexit really have on the NHS? The Independent. 9 June 2016. Available from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-what-effect-would-brexit-really-have-on-the-nhs-a7073241.html.Cooper C. EU referendum: What effect would Brexit really have on the NHS? // The Independent. 9 June 2016. URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendumwhat-effect-would-brexit-really-have-on-the-nhs-a7073241.html.Corbyn will not resign say allies amid battle with MPs. BBC. 27 June 2016. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36638041.Corbyn will not resign say allies amid battle with MPs // BBC. 27 June 2016. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36638041.Cressey D. Scientists say “no” to UK exit from Europe in Nature poll. Nature. 30 March 2016. Available from: http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-say-no-to-uk-exit-from-europe-in-nature-poll-1.19636.Cressey D. Scientists say “no” to UK exit from Europe in Nature poll // Nature. 30 March 2016. URL: http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-say-no-to-uk-exit-from-europe-in-naturepoll-1.19636.Dalgleish A. EU Referendum: Brexit ‘will not damage UK research’. Times Higher Education. 9 June 2016. Available from: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/eu-referendum-brexit-will-not-damage-uk-research.Dalgleish A. EU Referendum: Brexit ‘will not damage UK research’ // Times Higher Education, June 2016. URL: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/eu-referendum-brexit-will-notdamage-uk-research.Erlanger S. European? British? These ‘Brexit’ Voters Identify as English. The New York Times. 16 June 2016. Available from: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/world/europe/european-union-britain-brexit-voters-english.html.Erlanger S. European? British? These ‘Brexit’ Voters Identify as English // The New York Times. 16 June 2016. URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/world/europe/european-unionbritain-brexit-voters-english.html.EU referendum results. The Electoral Commission. 2016. Available from: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/ upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information.EU referendum results // The Electoral Commission. 2016. URL: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/ upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information.EU referendum: The result in maps and charts. BBC. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028.EU referendum: The result in maps and charts // BBC. 24 June 2016. URL: http://www.bbc.com/ news/uk-politics-36616028.Fenton S. EU referendum result: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness calls for border poll on united Ireland after Brexit. The Independent. 25 June 2016. Available from: http://www.independent.co.uk/ news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-united-martin-mcguinness-a7099276.html.Fenton S. EU referendum result: Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness calls for border poll on united Ireland after Brexit // The Independent. 25 June 2016. URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/ news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-referendum-result-latest-live-border-poll-unitedmartin-mcguinness-a7099276.html.Gardner F. EU referendum: The debate around counter-terrorism. BBC. 22 February 2016. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35600736.Gardner F. EU referendum: The debate around counter-terrorism // BBC. 22 February 2016. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35600736.Goodwin M. Identity trumps economics in revolt against elites. Financial Times. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6da366a-39ca-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html.Goodwin M. Identity trumps economics in revolt against elites // Financial Times, 24 June 2016. URL: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6da366a-39ca-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html.Hill J. Prospect of Brexit bemuses and worries Germany. BBC. 15 June 2016. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526839.Hill J. Prospect of Brexit bemuses and worries Germany // BBC. 15 June 2016. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526839.Hobsbawm E. Identity Politics and the Left. New Left Review. May-June 1996; Issue 217.Hobsbawm E. Identity Politics and the Left. // New Left Review. May-June 1996. Issue 217.Jamieson A. Scotland Seeks Independence Again After U.K. 'Brexit' Vote. NBC News. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/scotland-could-seek-independence-again-after-u-k-brexit-vote-n598166.Jamieson A. Scotland Seeks Independence Again After U.K. 'Brexit' Vote // NBC News. June 2016. URL: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/brexit-referendum/scotland-couldseek-independence-again-after-u-k-brexit-vote-n598166.Ledeen M. Brexit Is Not A British Revolution; It's Part Of A Global Revolt. Forbes. 26 June 2016. Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/06/26/brexit-is-not-a-british-revolution-its-part-of-a-global-revolt/.Ledeen M. Brexit Is Not A British Revolution; It's Part Of A Global Revolt // Forbes. 26 June 2016. URL: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/06/26/brexit-is-not-a-britishrevolution-its-part-of-a-global-revolt.Lilley P. Peter Lilley: Yes, I believe in free trade. But here’s why we must protect our NHS from TTIP. ConservativeHome. 3 April 2016. Available from: http://www.conservativehome.com/ platform/2016/04/peter-lilley-yes-i-believe-in-free-trade-but-heres-why-we-must-protect-our-nhs-from-ttip.html.Lilley P. Peter Lilley: Yes, I believe in free trade. But here’s why we must protect our NHS from TTIP // ConservativeHome. 3 April 2016. URL: http://www.conservativehome.com/ platform/2016/04/peter-lilley-yes-i-believe-in-free-trade-but-heres-why-we-must-protect-our-nhs-from-ttip.html.Lowe J. Is Jeremy Corbyn The Brexit Camp's Secret Weapon? Newsweek. 20 June 2016. Available from: http://europe.newsweek.com/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-eu-ttip-remain-leave-472400.Lowe J. Is Jeremy Corbyn The Brexit Camp's Secret Weapon? // Newsweek. 20 June 2016. URL: http://europe.newsweek.com/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-eu-ttip-remain-leave-472400.Mason R. Iain Duncan Smith: UK risks Paris-style attacks by staying in the EU. The Guardian. 21 February 2016. Available from: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/21/iain-duncan-smith-uk-risks-paris-style-attacks-by-staying-in-the-eu.Mason R. Iain Duncan Smith: UK risks Paris-style attacks by staying in the EU // The Guardian. 21 February 2016. URL: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/21/iain-duncan-smith-uk-risks-paris-style-attacks-by-staying-in-the-eu.McCann K. Jeremy Corbyn Forced to Abandon Speech Calling for Turkey to Join the EU Amid Fears it Would Push UK to Brexit. The Daily Telegraph. 5 May 2016. Available from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/jeremy-corbyn-forced-to-abandon-speech-calling-for-turkey-to-joi/.McCann K. Jeremy Corbyn Forced to Abandon Speech Calling for Turkey to Join the EU Amid Fears it Would Push UK to Brexit // The Daily Telegraph. 5 May 2016. URL: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/05/jeremy-corbyn-forced-to-abandon-speech-calling-for-turkey-to-joi.McFaul M. How Brexit is a Win for Putin. The Washington Post. 25 June 2016. Available from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-brexit-is-a-win-for-putin/ 2016/06/25/800e4d3c-3b06-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html.McFaul M. How Brexit is a Win for Putin // The Washington Post. 25 June 2016. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-brexit-is-a-win-for-putin/2016/ 06/25/800e4d3c-3b06-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html.McGill A. Who Voted for the Brexit? The Atlantic. 25 June 2016. Available from: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/brexit-vote-statistics-united-kingdom-european-union/488780/.McGill A. Who Voted for the Brexit? // The Atlantic. 25 June 2016. URL: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/brexit-vote-statistics-united-kingdom-european-union/488780/.Merry R.W. Identity Politics Makes a Comeback in America. The National Interest. 7 January 2016. Available from: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/identity-politics-makes-comeback-america-14834.Merry R.W. Identity Politics Makes a Comeback in America // The National Interest. 7 January 2016. URL: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/identity-politics-makes-comeback-america-14834.Moreno E. I'm mixed race, female, left-wing, a 19-year-old student — and yes, I really am voting for Brexit. The Independent. 21 June 2016. Available from: http://www.independent.co.uk/ voices/im-mixed-race-female-left-wing-and-a-student-and-yes-i-really-am-voting-for-brexit-a7093221.html.Moreno E. I'm mixed race, female, left-wing, a 19-year-old student - and yes, I really am voting for Brexit // The Independent. 21 June 2016. URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/ voices/im-mixed-race-female-left-wing-and-a-student-and-yes-i-really-am-voting-for-brexit-a7093221.html.Nazca J. Spain seeks to jointly govern Gibraltar after Brexit. Reuters. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar-idUKKCN0ZA169.Nazca J. Spain seeks to jointly govern Gibraltar after Brexit // Reuters. 24 June 2016. URL: http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar-idUKKCN0ZA169.Paxman J. Brexit has exposed the chasm between the Establishment... and the rest of us. The Telegraph. 25 June 2016. Available from: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/25/brexit-has-exposed-the-chasm-between-the-establishment-and-the-r/.Paxman J. Brexit has exposed the chasm between the Establishment... and the rest of us // The Telegraph. 25 June 2016. URL: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/25/brexit-has-exposed-the-chasm-between-the-establishment-and-the-r/.Schrieberg D. Donald Trump Thinks Brexit Foreshadows His Victory. Here's Why He May Be Right. Forbes. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidschrieberg1/ 2016/06/24/donald-trump-believes-brexit-could-foreshadow-his-victory-heres-why-he-may-be-right/.Schrieberg D. Donald Trump Thinks Brexit Foreshadows His Victory. Here’s Why He May Be Right // Forbes, 24 June 2016. URL: http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidschrieberg1/2016/06/ 24/donald-trump-believes-brexit-could-foreshadow-his-victory-heres-why-he-may-be-right.Speed B. How did different demographic groups vote in the EU referendum? New Statesman. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-did-different-demographic-groups-vote-eu-referendum.Speed B. How did different demographic groups vote in the EU referendum? // New Statesman. 24 June 2016. URL: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/how-did-different-demographic-groups-vote-eu-referendum.Stevens R. UK generals intervene to oppose Brexit. World Socialist Web Site. 27 February 2016. Available from: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/27/mili-f27.html.Stevens R. UK generals intervene to oppose Brexit // World Socialist Web Site. 27 February 2016. URL: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/27/mili-f27.html.Sturgeon: EU exit could trigger demand for Scottish independence referendum. BBC. 21 Feb¬ruary 2016. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35625067.Sturgeon: EU exit could trigger demand for Scottish independence referendum // BBC. 21 February 2016. URL: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35625067.Tories in Brexit turmoil — Andrew Feldman quits as chairman — will more follow? Daily Express. 24 June 2016. Available from: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683124/EU-referendum-Brexit-Britain-votes-leave-Tories-Conservatives-Andrew-Feldman.Tories in Brexit turmoil - Andrew Feldman quits as chairman - will more follow? // Daily Express. 24 June 2016. URL: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/683124/EU-referendum-Brexit-Britain-votes-leave-Tories-Conservatives-Andrew-Feldman.United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016. Wikipedia. 2016. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016.United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016 // Wikipedia, 2016. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016.United Kingdom EU referendum 2016 area results. Wikipedia. 27 June 2016. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.United Kingdom EU referendum 2016 area results // Wikipedia. 27 June 2016. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.United Kingdom EU referendum 2016 area results (Northern Ireland). Wikipedia. 24 June 2016. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_ results(Northern_Ireland).svg.United Kingdom EU referendum 2016 area results (Northern Ireland) // Wikipedia. 24 June 2016. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results_ (Northern_Ireland).svg.What is Article 50 and what does it mean for Britain? ITV. 27 June 2016. Available from: http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-27/what-is-article-50-and-what-does-it-mean-for-britain/.What is Article 50 and what does it mean for Britain? // ITV. 27 June 2016. URL: http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-27/what-is-article-50-and-what-does-it-mean-for-britain/.Why the Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK. Government of the United Kingdom. 2016. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/ government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517014/EU_referendum_leaflet_large_ print.pdf.Why the Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK // Government of the United Kingdom. 2016. URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/ uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517014/EU_referendum_leaflet_large_print.pdf.Wright O. TTIP: Government caves in to cross-party alliance of Eurosceptic MPs demanding NHS is protected from controversial deal. The Independent. 19 May 2016. Available from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ttip-government-caves-in-to-cross-party-alliance-of-eurosceptic-mps-demanding-nhs-is-protected-from-a7038561.html.Wright O. TTIP: Government caves in to cross-party alliance of Eurosceptic MPs demanding NHS is protected from controversial deal // The Independent. 19 May 2016. URL: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ttip-government-caves-in-to-cross-party-alliance-of-eurosceptic-mps-demanding-nhs-is-protected-from-a7038561.html.