Vestnik RUDN. International RelationsVestnik RUDN. International RelationsВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Международные отношения2313-06602313-0679федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Российский университет дружбы народов имени Патриса Лумумбы» (РУДН)14758ARTICLESСТАТЬИResearch ArticleMilitary Exercises and the Dangers of Misunderstandings: the East-West Crisis of the Early 1980sВоенные учения и риски взаимного недопонимания: кризис в отношениях между Востоком и Западом в начале 1980-х ггHeuserBХойзерБee@yr.ruReading UniversityУниверситет Рединга15122016163International Conflicts: Quo Vadis?Международные конфликты: Quo Vadis?39140428122016Copyright ©; 2016, Heuser B.Copyright ©; 2016, Хойзер Б.2016Heuser B.Хойзер Б.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/international-relations/article/view/14758

This article analyzes the risks of mutual misunderstanding caused by NATO and the Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO) large-scale military command-and-staff exercises in 1983. The problem of mutual misunderstanding is analyzed in the context of the classic «Security Dilemma» elaborated in 1951 by J. Gertz and adapted to military exercise issues by D. Adamski. In spite of all the available knowledge, analysis, intelligence and other forms of communication between the West and the East, a problem of mutual misunderstanding appeared between two blocs. This was highlighted during the command and staff exercises of the NATO countries «Able Archer 83» when the world was put on the brink of nuclear war. Given that the Western countries have considered exercises as a deterrence of possible attack by the WTO, the Eastern Bloc countries considered such activities directly threatening their military security. According to the author, these were military exercise carried out by both sides, which represented the most important factor of the sharp deterioration in relations between the West and the East in the early 1980s following the period of détente in the 1970s. The article is based on a large empirical data, archives data, personal interviews by the author of the participants of these events.

Данная статья посвящена анализу рисков взаимного недопонимания в контексте проведения странами-членами НАТО и ОВД крупномасштабных военных и командно-штабных учений в 1983 г. Проблема взаимного недопонимания рассматривается в контексте классической «дилеммы безопасности», сформулированной Дж. Герцем еще в 1951 г. и адаптированной к вопросам проведения военных учений Д. Адамски. Несмотря на все имеющиеся знания, аналитику, разведку и другие формы коммуникации между Западным и Восточным блоком, между ними зачастую возникала проблема взаимного недопонимания. Особенно ярко это проявилось в ходе проведения командно-штабных учений стран НАТО «Искусный лучник 83», которые поставили мир на грань ядерной войны. При том, что западные страны рассматривали учения как демонстрацию своей мощи для сдерживания возможного нападения со стороны ОВД, страны Восточного блока воспринимали эти учения как мероприятия, непосредственно угрожающие их военной безопасности. По мнению автора, именно военные учения, проводимые обеими сторонами, были наиболее значимым фактором и самой главной причиной резкого ухудшения отношений между Западом и Востоком в начале 1980-х гг., последовавшего за периодом разрядки международной напряженности в 1970-е гг. Статья основана на большом эмпирическом материале, архивных данных, личных беседах автора с участниками описываемых событий.

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