Vestnik RUDN. International RelationsVestnik RUDN. International RelationsВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Международные отношения2313-06602313-0679федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Российский университет дружбы народов имени Патриса Лумумбы» (РУДН)10804ARTICLESСТАТЬИKyrgyzstan 2010-2011: from Conflict to Fragile StabilityКыргызстан в 2010-2011 годах: от конфликта и хрупкой стабильностиShirin Akiner-Ширин Акинер-Школа восточных и африканских исследований; Лондонский университет; University of LondonШкола восточных и африканских исследований; Лондонский университетakiner@dsl.pipex.comUniversity of LondonЛондонский университет150120121NO1 (2012)№1 (2012)51409092016Copyright ©; 2012, Shirin Akiner -.Copyright ©; 2012, Ширин Акинер -.2012Shirin Akiner -.Ширин Акинер -.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/international-relations/article/view/10804Kyrgyzstan had to manage complex systemic changes when, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it embarked on a series of rapid social, economic and political transitions. This paper summarises the main factors that created a conflict-prone society, then analyses the evolution of the 2010 conflict; lastly, it considers the prospects for stability following the return to political processes. The author examines regional and international responses to the Kyrgyz crisis.Кыргызстан был вынужден проводить сложные системные изменения, последовавшие после распада Советского Союза, когда страна пошла по пути быстрых социальных, экономических и политических перемен. В данной статье обобщаются основные факторы, приведшие к созданию подверженного кризисам общества, анализируется эволюция конфликта 2010 года, наконец, рассматриваются перспективы стабильности, которая может последовать за политическими процессами. Автор изучает реакцию региональных и мировых держав на кризис в Кыргызстане.Kyrgyzstanthe 2010 Kyrgyz conflictpolitical developmentstate managementethnic communitiesparliamentary electionspresidential electionsКыргызстанкиргизский конфликт 2010 годаполитическое развитиегосударственное управлениеэтнические сообществапарламентские выборыпрезидентские выборы[This paper is based in part on a longer, more detailed report Kyrgyzstan: A Regional Analysis (S. Akiner, August 2010), written by the same author for United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Emergency Preparedness and Response Section.][Политические партии в Кыргызстане / Под ред. М. Иманалиева. - Бишкек: Институт общественной политики, 2006.][Anderson J. Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Island of Democracy? - Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1999][Huskey E. Kyrgyzstan: The Fate of Political Liberalization // Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus / K. Dawisha and B. Parrott, eds. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997. - Pp. 242-276.][Comments by the Government of Kyrgyzstan: In response to the report of the Kyrgyzstan Inquiry Commission into the events in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 // www.k-ic.org/images/stories/ kg_comments_english_final][Final Report on UNHCR Emergency Operations In the Republic of Uzbekistan. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Geneva, 23 July 2010 // http://www.unhcr.org/ 4c51717a6.html; see also: Refugee Crisis Poses Challenge for Uzbekistan // Eurasianet. 14 June 2010 // http://www.eurasianet.org/node/61303][For an analysis of problems in the education sector, see: Scott D. From Central Planning to Market Economy: Conceptual and Practical Challenges in the Education Sector in Post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan. PhD thesis, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, 2007 (unpublished).][http://eng.24.kg/politic/2010/06/25/12288.html][http://www.rferl.org/content/kyrgyzstan_parliament_speaker_quits_alleged_criminal_ties/ 24419845.html][Illegal Acts by Security Forces Threaten Fragile Peace in Southern Kyrgyzstan, Says UN Human Rights Chief // United Nations. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Geneva, 20 July 2010 // http://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID= 10220&LangID=E][In 1994, Akayev established the Assembly of the Peoples of Kyrgyzstan to create a formal channel through which the minorities could raise their concerns. However, he was ousted from power shortly after and under Bakiev, the Assembly failed to fulfil its potential. - See: Amanov T. Kyrgyzstan: People's Assembly Disappoints // IWPR Reporting Central Asia. No 460. 11 August 2006 // http://iwpr.net/report-news/kyrgyzstan-peoples-assembly-disappoints.][Karimov D. Kyrgyzstan 2010: loop? // Daniyar Bishkek - 24.kg news agency. 30 December 2010 // http://eng.24.kg/politic/2010/12/30/15632.html][Marchenko I. Youth Policy in Kyrgyzstan: Stiff Mission. 16 March 2010 // http://eng.24.kg/ politic/2010/03/16/10616.html][Bennett D. Kyrgyz Youth Activists Struggle to Find Place in Bishkek's New Order // Eurasianet. 24 May, 2010 // http://www.eurasianet.org/node/61137][Najibullah F. New Year Brings New Fears In Kyrgyzstan's Troubled City Of Osh // Eurasianet.org. 26 December 2010 // http://www.rferl.org/content/osh_kyrgyzstan_tensions_new_years/ 2259433.html.][Pannier B. Future Kyrgyz Government Faces Traditional North-South Divide // Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. 26 April 2010 // http://www.rferl.org/content/Future_Kyrgyz_Government_ Faces_Traditional_NorthSouth_Divide/2025131.html][Pannier B. The Third Force and Reconciliation // Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. 2 July 2010 // http://www.rferl.org/content/The_Third_Force_And_Reconciliation_Kyrgyzstan_Osh/ 2089210.html][Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry into the Events in Southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 // http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63405, pp. 44-45. - The Independent International Commission of Inquiry was led by Kimmo Kiljunen, Special Representative for Central Asia, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly. Based on extensive field research, the Report gives the most detailed account of the conflict to date, though some of its findings are disputed by the Kyrgyz authorities.][Statement by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan on the Events in Kyrgyzstan. Bukhara. 18 June 2010 // http://www.uzbekembassy.org/r/press_releases/13287/]