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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">RUDN Journal of Informatization in Education</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">RUDN Journal of Informatization in Education</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Информатизация образования</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="print">2312-8631</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">2312-864X</issn><publisher><publisher-name xml:lang="en">Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">46156</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22363/2312-8631-2025-22-3-288-303</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="edn">QQCBZI</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT AND COURSE DESIGN</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РАЗРАБОТКА УЧЕБНЫХ ПРОГРАММ И ЭЛЕКТРОННЫХ РЕСУРСОВ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="en">Key elements of e-learning course design that provides high-quality prediction of student learning success</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Ключевые элементы дизайна электронного обучающего курса, обеспечивающего качественное прогнозирование успешности обучения студентов</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4514-7925</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">3957-7221</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Noskov</surname><given-names>Mikhail V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Носков</surname><given-names>Михаил Валерианович</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor, Professor of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Security, Institute of Space and Information Technologies</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор физико-математических наук, профессор, профессор кафедры прикладной математики и компьютерной безопасности, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><email>mnoskov@sfu-kras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8370-7970</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">9765-2130</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Vainshtein</surname><given-names>Yuliya V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Вайнштейн</surname><given-names>Юлия Владимировна</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Security, Institute of Space and Information Technologies</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор педагогических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры прикладной математики и компьютерной безопасности, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><email>yweinstein@sfu-kras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8538-4108</contrib-id><contrib-id contrib-id-type="spin">3986-2280</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Somova</surname><given-names>Marina V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сомова</surname><given-names>Марина Валериевна</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Depart ment of Applied Informatics, Institute of Space and Information Technologies</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>кандидат педагогических наук, доцент кафедры Информационной безопасности, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><email>msomova@sfu-kras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Siberian Federal University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Сибирский федеральный университет</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-09-25" publication-format="electronic"><day>25</day><month>09</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>22</volume><issue>3</issue><issue-title xml:lang="en">VOL 22, NO3 (2025)</issue-title><issue-title xml:lang="ru">ТОМ 22, №3 (2025)</issue-title><fpage>288</fpage><lpage>303</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-09-29"><day>29</day><month>09</month><year>2025</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright ©; 2025, Noskov M.V., Vainshtein Y.V., Somova M.V.</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">Copyright ©; 2025, Носков М.В., Вайнштейн Ю.В., Сомова М.В.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Noskov M.V., Vainshtein Y.V., Somova M.V.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Носков М.В., Вайнштейн Ю.В., Сомова М.В.</copyright-holder><ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/><license><ali:license_ref xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0</ali:license_ref></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journals.rudn.ru/informatization-education/article/view/46156">https://journals.rudn.ru/informatization-education/article/view/46156</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Statement of the problem. The task of predicting student learning success is one of the most developed in educational analytics. At the same time, experience in the field of pedagogical design of e-learning courses, which are the main sources of students’ digital footprint data, is extremely limited. In these conditions, understanding what it should be like and what design elements are most important for it is becoming relevant. The purpose of the study is to determine the design elements of an e-learning course for effective prediction of educational results and to develop its generalized criteria-content model. Methodology . A comparative analysis of scientific, pedagogical, and methodological sources was applied. Verbal and communicative methods, comparative and statistical analysis of empirical data using a generative model of artificial intelligence were used. Results . The paper substantiates the need to develop high-precision e-learning courses for effective forecasting of students’ learning success based on such design elements as: content availability, structuring, discipline study schedule, assessment system, timely feedback, relevance and completeness of information, aesthetics and ergonomics. A generalized criteria-content model for constructing a high-precision e-learning course is proposed. Conclusion . The prospects for further development of the research and development of methodological recommendations for the design of pedagogical design of high-precision e-learning courses are outlined.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p>Постановка проблемы. Задача прогнозирования успешности обучения студентов является одной из самых разрабатываемых в учебной аналитике. При этом опыт в области педагогического дизайна электронных обучающих курсов, выступающих основным источником данных цифрового следа обучающихся, чрезвычайно ограничен. Актуальность в этих условиях приобретает понимание того, каким он должен быть и какие элементы дизайна для него наиболее важные. Цель исследования - определение элементов дизайна электронного обучающего курса для эффективного прогнозирования образовательных результатов и разработка его обобщенной критериально-содержательной модели. Методология. Применен сравнительно-сопоставительный анализ научно-педагогических, методических источников. Использованы вербально-коммуникативные методы, сравнительно-сопоставительный и статистический анализ эмпирических данных с применением генеративной модели искусственного интеллекта. Результаты. Обоснована необходимость разработки высокоточных электронных обучающих курсов для эффективного прогнозирования успешности обучения студентов на основе таких элементов дизайна, как доступность контента, структурированность, график изучения дисциплины, система оценивания, своевременная обратная связь, актуальность и полнота информации, эстетика и эргономика. Предложена обобщенная критериально-содержательная модель построения высокоточного электронного обучающего курса. Заключение. Обозначены перспективы дальнейшего развития исследования и разработки методических рекомендаций по проектированию педагогического дизайна высокоточных электронных обучающих курсов.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>pedagogical design</kwd><kwd>e-learning course</kwd><kwd>e-learning environment</kwd><kwd>predictive analytics</kwd><kwd>learning success</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>педагогический дизайн</kwd><kwd>электронный обучающий курс</kwd><kwd>электронная обучающая среда</kwd><kwd>предиктивная аналитика</kwd><kwd>успешность обучения</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group/></article-meta><fn-group/></front><body></body><back><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1.</label><mixed-citation>Freitas E, Fonseca F, Garcia VC, Falcão TP, Marques E, Gasevic D, Ferreira R. 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