RUDN Journal of EconomicsRUDN Journal of EconomicsВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Экономика2313-23292408-8986Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)4544710.22363/2313-2329-2025-33-2-334-349AFNVOGINNOVATIONS IN THE MODERN ECONOMYИННОВАЦИИ В СОВРЕМЕННОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕResearch ArticleShortand long-term drivers of China’s high-tech export leadership: empirical analysisКраткосрочные и долгосрочные факторы лидерства Китая в экспорте высоких технологий: эмпирический анализhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1797-88258307-9357BalashovaSvetlana A.БалашоваСветлана Алексеевна

Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Head of the Economic Modelling Department, Faculty of Economic

кандидат физико-математических наук, заведующая кафедрой экономико-математического моделирования экономического факультета

balashovasa@rudn.ruAbramianRuzana A.АбрамянРузана Артуровнаstudent, Economic Modelling Department, Faculty of Economicстудент кафедры экономико-математического моделирования экономического факультета1132210576@pfur.ruLazarevNikita V.ЛазаревНикита Васильевичstudent, Economic Modelling Department, Faculty of Economicстудент кафедры экономико-математического моделирования экономического факультета1132222066@rudn.ruRUDN UniversityРоссийский университет дружбы народов01082025332ASIAN AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLDСТРАНЫ АЗИИ И АФРИКИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ МНОГОПОЛЯРНОГО МИРА33434907082025Copyright ©; 2025, Balashova S.A., Abramian R.A., Lazarev N.V.Copyright ©; 2025, Балашова С.А., Абрамян Р.А., Лазарев Н.В.2025Balashova S.A., Abramian R.A., Lazarev N.V.Балашова С.А., Абрамян Р.А., Лазарев Н.В.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/economics/article/view/45447

It is widely acknowledged that the People’s Republic of China has emerged as a major player in the global arena of high-­technology product exports. In the preceding 15-year period, high-­tech exports have exhibited an average annual growth rate of 6%, though this trend is stochastic in nature. Consequently, the growth rate is not consistent but is acutely responsive to external shocks. The Granger causality test and the Engle — Granger cointegration test are utilised to identify the long-­run effects of the variables under consideration. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is employed to estimate the long-­run and short-­run response to changes in the main drivers. The results demonstrate that despite changes in economic policy and the launch of the Made in China 2025 programme a decade ago, the primary long-­term driver of export growth remains foreign capital. While expenditures on research and development (R&D) have shown a tendency to positively influence high-­tech exports in the short term, international investment, particularly in the form of foreign direct investment, has a more significant long-­term impact on high-­tech exports from China. In the short term, a decline in net foreign direct investment inflows is likely to be balanced by an increase in R&D. Nevertheless, in the long term, the impact of accumulated international investment proves to be considerably more significant. New Chinese policy priorities are expected to shift the main driver of high-­tech export growth from foreign capital to domestic R&D.

Широко признано, что Китайская Народная Республика стала крупным игроком на мировой арене экспорта высокотехнологичной продукции. В течение предыдущего 15-летнего периода экспорт высокотехнологичной продукции демонстрировал среднегодовой темп прироста в 6 %, хотя эта тенденция носит стохастический характер. Следовательно, темпы роста не являются постоянными, но остро реагируют на внешние шоки. Тест причинности Грейнджера и тест на коинтеграцию Энгла — Грэнжера использованы для выявления долгосрочных эффектов рассматриваемых переменных. Модель коррекции ошибок (ECM) применена для оценки долгосрочной и краткосрочной реакции высокотехнологичного экспорта на изменения основных факторов. Результаты показали, что, несмотря на изменения в экономической политике и запуск программы «Сделано в Китае 2025» десять лет назад, основным долгосрочным фактором роста экспорта остается иностранный капитал. В то время как расходы на научно-­исследовательские и опытно-­конструкторские работы (НИОКР) показали тенденцию к положительному влиянию на экспорт высокотехнологичной продукции в краткосрочной перспективе, международные инвестиции, особенно в форме прямых иностранных инвестиций, оказывают более существенное долгосрочное влияние на экспорт высокотехнологичной продукции из Китая. В краткосрочной перспективе снижение чистого притока прямых иностранных инвестиций, вероятно, будет компенсировано ростом НИОКР. Тем не менее, в долгосрочной перспективе влияние накопленных международных инвестиций проявило себя значительно более существенным. Ожидается, что новые приоритеты китайской политики сместят основной драйвер роста экспорта высокотехнологичной продукции с иностранного капитала на внутренние НИОКР.

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