RUDN Journal of EconomicsRUDN Journal of EconomicsВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Экономика2313-23292408-8986Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)2312010.22363/2313-2329-2019-27-3-576-586Economic integration and globalizationЭкономическая интеграция и глобализацияResearch ArticleMethodical approach to assessing the volume of youth labour migration in the states of the Eurasian Economic UnionМетодический подход к оценке объемов трудовой миграции молодежи в государствах ЕАЭСVeselkoAlena A.ВеселкоАлена Александровна

assistant of the Customs Department, Faculty of Economics

ассистент кафедры таможенного дела, экономический факультет

petrochenko-aa@rudn.ruPeoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)Российский университет дружбы народов15122019273VOL 27, NO3 (2019)ТОМ 27, №3 (2019)57658606032020Copyright ©; 2019, Veselko A.A.Copyright ©; 2019, Веселко А.А.2019Veselko A.A.Веселко А.А.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/economics/article/view/23120

Labour migration plays an integral role in the socio-economic development of any country; it affects both the structure and the size, the social and economic spheres of society. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the migration process, because, in the future, it can have a positive impact on the economic growth of the country. The article proposes a model for macro-economic assessment of the volume of youth labor migration in the states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model is based on the ideas of labor migration in the form of a random Markov process with discrete states and continuous time. The chain states are interpreted as the labour market of the youth of the respective EAEU states, and the transition rates reflect the attractiveness of these markets for young people from different states. This made it possible to take into account the inherent uncertainty and inertia in the process of youth migration.

Трудовая миграция играет немаловажную роль в социально-экономическом развитии любого государства. Это связано с тем, что она оказывает влияние как на структуру, так и на численность, на социальную и хозяйственную сферы жизни общества. Следовательно, миграционные процессы необходимо отслеживать, так как в дальнейшем это может положительно сказаться на экономическом росте страны. В статье предложена модель для макроэкономической оценки объемов трудовой миграции молодежи в государствах Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС). Основу модели составляет представление трудовой миграции в виде случайного марковского процесса с дискретными состояниями и непрерывным временем. Состояния цепи интерпретируются как рынки труда молодежи соответствующих государств ЕАЭС, а интенсивности переходов отражают привлекательность этих рынков для молодежи различных государств, что позволяет учесть присущие процессу миграции молодежи неопределенность и инерционность.

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