RUDN Journal of Ecology and Life SafetyRUDN Journal of Ecology and Life SafetyВестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Экология и безопасность жизнедеятельности2313-23102408-8919Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba (RUDN University)3189110.22363/2313-2310-2022-30-3-300-311Biological resourcesБиологические ресурсыResearch ArticleProjections of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for grapes growingПроекции условий влагообеспеченности в Севастопольском регионе для выращивания виноградаhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4890-3247VyshkvarkovaElena V.ВышкварковаЕлена Васильевна

PhD (Geogr.), Leading Researcher, Laboratory Large-scale Interaction Atmosphere and Ocean and Climate Change, Institute of Natural and Technical Systems; Associate Professor, Department of Monitoring and Theory of Climate, Sevastopol State University

кандидат географических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатории крупномасштабного взаимодействия океана и атмосферы и изменений климата, ФГБУН «Институт природно-технических систем»; доцент кафедры Мониторинг и теория климата, Севастопольский государственный университет

aveiro_7@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4579-3505RybalkoEvgeniy A.РыбалкоЕвгений Александрович

PhD (Agric.), Head of Agroecology Sector

кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук, заведующий сектором агроэкологии

agroeco-magarach@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6205-9946MarchukovaOlesia V.МарчуковаОлеся Владимировна

junior researcher, Laboratory Large-scale Interaction Atmosphere and Ocean and Climate Change

младший научный сотрудник лаборатории крупномасштабного взаимодействия океана и атмосферы и изменений климата

olesjath@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2588-360XBaranovaNatalia V.БарановаНаталья Валентиновна

PhD (Agric.), Leading Researcher, Laboratory Agroecology

кандидат сельскохозяйственных наук, ведущий научный сотрудник, лаборатория агроэкологии

natali.v.0468@mail.ruInstitute of Natural and Technical SystemsИнститут природно-технических системSevastopol State UniversityСевастопольский государственный университетAll-Russian National Research Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking ‘Magarach’ RASВсероссийский национальный научно-исследовательский институт виноградарства и виноделия «Магарач» РАН13092022303VOL 30, NO3 (2022)ТОМ 30, №3 (2022)30031112092022Copyright ©; 2022, Vyshkvarkova E.V., Rybalko E.A., Marchukova O.V., Baranova N.V.Copyright ©; 2022, Вышкваркова Е.В., Рыбалко Е.А., Марчукова О.В., Баранова Н.В.2022Vyshkvarkova E.V., Rybalko E.A., Marchukova O.V., Baranova N.V.Вышкваркова Е.В., Рыбалко Е.А., Марчукова О.В., Баранова Н.В.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0https://journals.rudn.ru/ecology/article/view/31891

The climatic and orographic features of the Sevastopol region are the basis for the development of viticulture, winemaking and obtaining a wide range of high-quality wines. Viticulture is a specialization of agriculture in the Sevastopol region. Observed and predicted climate changes lead to a shift in favorable zones for growing grapes. The amount of precipitation is a key parameter, along with air temperature, for obtaining high quality grapes, and later wine. The water requirements of grapes vary with the season and phase of plant development. The article assesses the possible changes in the conditions of moisture conditions in the Sevastopol region for the grapes growing. The work uses data from numerical calculations of global climate models of the CMIP6 project under an unfavorable scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations SSP5-8.5. The assessment was carried out using two agroclimatic indices - the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and the dryness index, by the middle and end of the 21st century. According to the predicted values of agroclimatic indices, by the middle and the end of the century, the Sevastopol region will remain in the zone where the cultivation of grapes will be possible without irrigation. The results obtained showed the likelihood of an increase in the aridity of the region in future periods, especially towards the end of the century, which will entail additional stress for the grapes. Adaptation measures such as selection of drought-tolerant grape varieties, changes in tillage systems, and placement of vineyards on northern slopes will be required to minimize unfavorable conditions.

Климатические и орографические особенности Севастопольского региона являются основой развития виноградарства, виноделия и получения широкой палитры вин высокого качества. Виноградарство является специализацией сельского хозяйства в Севастопольском регионе. Наблюдаемые и прогнозируемые изменения климата приводят к смещению благоприятных зон для выращивания винограда. Количество атмосферных осадков является ключевым параметром, наравне с температурой воздуха, для получения винограда высокого качества, а в дальнейшем вина. Потребности винограда в воде меняются в зависимости от сезона и фазы развития растения. Проведена оценка возможных изменений условий влагообеспеченности Севастопольского региона для выращивания винограда. Использованы данные численных расчетов глобальных климатических моделей проекта CMIP6 при неблагоприятном сценарии концентрации парниковых газов SSP5-8.5. Оценка проведена с использованием двух агроклиматических индексов - гидротермический коэффициент Селянинова и индекс сухости, к середине и концу XXI века. Согласно прогнозируемым величинам агроклиматических индексов к середине и концу века Севастопольский регион останется в зоне, где выращивание винограда будет возможно без орошения. Полученные результаты показали вероятность увеличения засушливости региона в будущие периоды, особенно к концу века, что повлечет дополнительный стресс для винограда. Для минимизации неблагоприятных условий потребуется принятие мер адаптации, таких как выбор засухоустойчивых сортов винограда, изменений в системе обработки почвы, размещение виноградников на северных склонах.

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