Fractal Model of Population Growninig

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Abstract


In the study there was developed a fractal model of population growth. In the model the average population growth rate in separate segments of the growth curve dynamics is a function of fractal dimension of segments SDS which is defined as a cubic equation. The data analysis has been performing since 1950 up to now. The data marks three periods in 12, 20, and 27 years in duration. The prognostic within our model shows that a population growth trend will cross the line of 7 bln of people in June, 2011; 8 bln of people there will be in 2024, and 8,5 bln - in 2030.

A N Kudinov

Tver State University

Email: math_model@mail.ru
Лаборатория математического моделирования; Тверской государственный университет; Tver State University

O I Shazina

Tver State University

Email: osazina@mail.ru
Лаборатория математического моделирования; Тверской государственный университет; Tver State University

V P Tsvetkov

Tver State University

Email: tsvet@tversu.ru
Лаборатория математического моделирования; Тверской государственный университет; Tver State University

I V Tsvetkov

Tver State University

Email: mancu@mail.ru
Лаборатория математического моделирования; Тверской государственный университет; Tver State University

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Copyright (c) 2010 Кудинов А.Н., Сажина О.И., Цветков В.П., Цветков И.В.

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