Simplified Sea Level Estimation Based on Logistic Equation and Paleoclimate Data

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Abstract


During the pre-industrial period the variation of Global Surface Air Temperature on 1 ºC change Global Mean Sea Level on 24.79 m (SL < 0) and in the modern time - 7.5 m (SL > 0). For the global warming period the rising rate of the Global Mean Sea Level will slowing down in 3.3 times simultaneously increases the Global Surface Air Temperature rate in 3.3 times. In the present time the Global Surface Air Temperature is 0.8 ºC higher then pre-industrial level that will lead to the sea-level rise on 6 m. The logistic equation for the current climate conditions (global warming on 0.8 ºC) has provide us a solution that the sea level within next 95 years will rise up to +5 m and will stabilized at +6 m level within the relaxation time of 150 years. The EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change assume that the global warming must be limited to below 2 ºC above pre-industrial level, that within some ages will lead to the sea-level rise on 15 m (15 times grater than for the A1B scenario, with the Sea-level rise up to 1 m). So in the future conditions the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change do not assume rapid climate changes that will significantly increase the economic losses from Sea Level Rise.

L V Sorokin

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia

Economic and Mathematical Modeling Department

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Copyright (c) 2015 Сорокин Л.В.

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