Vol 17, No 3 (2017): ASEAN and Inter-Regional Cooperation in Asia

THEMATIC DOSSIER
THE INTEGRATION MODEL ASEAN+1: THE MAIN NORMS OF AGREEMENTS AND EFFECT ON FOREIGN ECONOMIC TIES
Kostyunina G.M.
Abstract

The aim of this research is a comparative analysis of the provisions of free trade agreements signed by ASEAN with dialogue countries and the East Asia Summit partners - China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. The author's thesis is that, in our opinion, the final effect of participation in the free trade zone for the national economy depends on such factors as the volume of mutual trade, the degree of economic interde-pendence, the level of customs duties rates at the date of signing the agreement, the volume of the mutual market, geographical proximity. The higher the role of these factors, the greater the effect of trade creation is received by the participating states. The basis of the research methodology is the understanding of regional integration agreements as a multifactor instrument of trade policy in various countries of the world that facilitates the liberalization of international trade in general and the regional trade in particular, enhancing the participation of partner states in the international division of labor and stimulating the dynamics of their economic development. Such agreements are considered as a system that includes a set of elements that interact with elements of other systems. Such interaction is considered taking into account the specific purpose of each of the elements, and also taking into account the factors of the stability of the development of each system. In carry-ing out this study, the author has used such methods as the method of comparative analysis, which makes it possible to identify the specifics of the participation of ASEAN countries in free trade zones; methods of statistical analysis and political forecasting that provide an opportunity to identify legal norms of integra-tion agreements on the ASEAN + 1 model; as well as a logical conceptual analysis that allows to present a full picture of the ASEAN integration policy. The author analyses norms for regulating the trade in goods and services, investment, distinguishing almost all agreements, as well as intellectual property rights, mobility of individuals and economic cooperation in the framework of some agreements. The article examines the state of trade and investment cooperation between partners in the free trade areas, and comes to the main conclusion about the effect of trade crea-tion, which is expressed in a faster rate of growth in mutual trade and a growth of its share. The greatest economic benefit for ASEAN is the free trade area with China due to such factors as the population size and GDP volume, geographical proximity, the volume of trade at the time of formation of the free trade area, the complementarity of economic structures, and the size of duty rates at the time of signing the agreement. Experience of the functioning of free trade zones within the framework of the ASEAN + 1 shows the importance of wider coverage of economic relations in the liberalization.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):441-457
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ASEAN-LED MULTILATERAL SECURITY DIALOGUE: EURASIAN PRIORITIES
Kanaev E.A., Shumkova V.A.
Abstract

The article focuses upon new aspects in ASEAN priorities relevant to the rise of efficiency of ASEAN-led multilateral dialogues platforms - ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus Eight (ADMM+8) and East Asia Summit (EAS). Having outlined the conceptual contradiction between the rise of the global component in Asia-Pacific security challenges, the authors trace the intellectual and practical dimensions of ASEAN response. On reviewing the key directions of intra-ASEAN expert discussions, the authors reveal their qualitatively new component - to link the modi-fication of ASEAN modality of cooperation and its expansion to the Eurasian area. The trace of factors responsible for the possibility and necessity to adopt ARF, ADMM+8 and EAS to the impeding format ASEAN-SCO-EAEU and practically-oriented proposals about the promising directions of cooperation within this format are the key academic value-added of the study. The actuality and academic significance of the study stem from the necessity to analyze issues important for ASEAN and its Eurasian partners. Among these issues, the key are: which directions of cooperation can be of help for ASEAN in order to strengthen its positions as the driving force of Asia-Pacific multilateral dialogue frameworks? By what means can ASEAN and ASEAN-led formats be integ-rated in the establishment of Greater Eurasia with the maximum outcomes for both ASEAN and its Eurasian partners? How can ASEAN experience be used for the establishment of an efficient trans-continental rather than regional multilateral security dialogue? Findings on these issues make the article academi-cally unique.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):458-468
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BRICS AND SCO: PARTICULAR QUALITIES OF FORMATION AND ACTIVITIES
Yurtaev V.I., Rogov A.S.
Abstract

This article analyzes the general and the particular role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in the Eurasia integration processes. SCO and BRICS are considered as new forms of international integration in the context of globali-zation. Particular attention is devoted to show the promising areas of cooperation between the SCO and BRICS in Central Asia as a region - the module forming a new global system of global economic rela-tions and international integration. SCO is defined in the article as a regional organization of a global type, in which the key value along with the factors of economic feasibility and safety received a humanistic component, understood as adap-tation and readiness of participants to a new format of dialogue for the future (the “Shanghai spirit”). It is noted that the establishment of the BRICS, above all, was a response to the failure of traditional for XX century the economic and geopolitical rationales and motivations in setting priorities of human development. In addition to the global dimension of the BRICS has a strong regional dimension, which has no analogues in the world practice, each of the BRICS countries is an integral part of continental, regional and subregional conjugate markets and geopolitical spaces. At the global level, BRICS appears in three dimensions: international (traditional), intercontinental and interregional. Within intercontinental partner-ship, the BRICS countries are portals (Gate) for inclusion in the global international cooperation of econo-mies of the regions and related subregions. Regional-global features of the SCO and the global-regional component of the BRICS compete with each other and mutually complementary, that is, can become an important resource for their self-development. Unlike the SCO, in which there is an organizational structure that provides members the vari-ous formats of development, in BRICS priority is given to consensus five-sided format of interaction, which is the key feature of this Group. The analysis showed that the transition to a new international eco-nomic system on the platform of the BRICS can be implemented in the following stated areas of coopera-tion that form the regional development module of global type: cluster of economic and trade partnership; sectoral cooperation; joint participation in large-scale projects to address global problems. Here is the bow with the largest of announced projects in the SCO space - the idea of a cooperation to integrate the Eurasian Economic Union and the Economic belt of the Silk Road, which will require pairing of national development strategies and to further the formation of a partnership network for multilateral associations.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):469-482
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THE INFLUENCE OF THE ‘CHINESE FACTOR’ ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIANCAMBODIAN RELATIONS
Bektimirova N.N.
Abstract

This article considers the specificity of Russian-Cambodian diplomatic relations which cele-brated 60 years in 2016. The author shows that in the 20th century ideological considerations, namely the po-litical rivalry between China and the USSR, largely dominated in bilateral relations. The ‘Chinese factor’ - China being ‘friend number one’ for Cambodia - drastically influenced USSR’s position on most issues relating to this country. The research demonstrates that both Russia and Cambodia are nowadays inclined to implement a purely pragmatic, non-ideological foreign policy, modifying it and their interests depending on the current situation. Thus, the ‘Chinese factor’ - China’s economic domination in Cambodia - can hardly become a major obstacle to the development of Russian-Cambodian relations, at least in the me-dium-term. Russian aspiration to solidify its position as an influential center of an evolving polycentric world demands the building of constructive relations with all ASEAN member states. This approach includes Cambodia - a relatively small country in terms of human, territorial and economic resources. It would also promote a more stable system of international relations in South-East Asia as a whole, while at the same time partially offsetting Chinese political and economic dominance in Cambodia.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):483-495
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RUSSIAN-VIETNAMESE MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR RUSSIA
Fedorov N.V.
Abstract

Vietnam plays important role in Russian policy in the Asia-Pacific region. Military-technical cooperation holds special position in Russian-Vietnamese relations. The aim of the article is the detection of the special features of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, and also challenges and opportunities it provides for Russian policy. After the collapse of the USSR defense interaction between Russia and Vietnam was determined by commercial foundations. Vietnam needed new Russian weapons to protect its interests, first of all, in the South China Sea. For Moscow military-technical cooperation with Vietnam got economic significance. But later there was a rise of political dimension of cooperation in this sphere, influenced by some external factors. The period of the 2000-2010s was marked by growth of arms sales from Russia to Vietnam. It was mostly caused by the escalation of the South China Sea conflict, for which US-Chinese contradictions began to play an increasing role. Military-technical coopera-tion with Vietnam influenced some aspects of policy of Russia in the region. There was an increase of indi-rect involvement of Russia into the South China Sea conflict. Russian arms sales for Vietnam became one of problems in Russian-Chinese relations. But Russia and China could cope with these disputes, partly because of enlargement of their interaction in international relations, including the demonstration of similar position for some aspects of the South China Sea conflict. In the framework of development of defense cooperation with Vietnam, Russia could get special conditions of access to facilities of Cam Ranh Bay that strengthened its strategic positions in the region. Russian cooperation with Hanoi in military-technical field and general reinforcement of Russian positions in Vietnam might be also a reason for contradictions with the US.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):496-507
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STRATEGIC INTERESTS OF INDIA IN SCO: ENERGY AND SECURITY
Kharina O.A.
Abstract

This article focuses on important objectives and core benefits to India joining the SCO. The relevance of this study lies in the possibility of consideration of true motivations of one country wishing to become a part of the organization. The acceptance of this country as crucial brings into focus the fun-damental question about the nature of the SCO, its aims and objectives. Special attention is paid to economic factors and security issues that guided the state. One of India's major concerns are OBOR and the CPEC that forced it to change tactics of cooperation. The main attention is paid to the concept of the school of political realism. The necessity of use of this theoretical approach in this research is detected and substantiated. Тhe analysis of different factors allows making prediction on the development of relations between India and China and helps to assume what kind of conversion will take place in the organization. One of the propositions, which is key in the work is that India can’t show the policy underpinned by a spirit of rivalry or competition in the SCO even if it is a leading position.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):508-517
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PEACE AND SECURITY
THE DUAL-TRACK APPROACH OF THE PRC TO THE RESOLUTION OF DISPUTES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Ponka T.I., Belchenko A.S., Trusova A.A.
Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region is becoming one of the centers of global economic and political development. Countries of the region actively develop their economy, implement democratic reforms, and are also interested in peace and security in the region. A serious destabilizing factor in the Asia-Pacific region is territorial disputes between China and a number of countries in the region. China is taking the lead in the region and resolutely defends its interests, including territorial ones. The growing economic and military strength of China bothers other countries of Asia-Pacific region. Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia also claim regional leadership. They also demonstrate determination in their territorial claims. Confrontation with China encourages the countries of the region to seek political and military support from the US, that could lead to the aggravation of the situation in the region in future. Meanwhile, China is also interested in good relations with neighbors, that’s why it changes approaches of solving its territorial issues. The objective of the research is to define China’s approach to territorial disputes in Asia-Pacific region. For this purpose, the authors set some tasks: first, to point out the main territorial disputes between China and Asia-Pacific countries, second, to consider how the problem of territorial disputes in Asia-Pacific region first appeared and developed, and how the Chinese government reacted to it, and finally, to analyze the role of international organizations, such as the UN and ASEAN in settling disputes in Asia-Pacific region. Summarizing the results of their research, the authors make the important conclusion that China’s stance on disputed territories remains unchanged, and at the same time, Chinese government seeks to solve the existing territorial problems peacefully, without using military force.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):518-529
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THE TAIWAN QUESTION: EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL DETERMINANTS
Lychagin A.I., Komarov I.D.
Abstract

The article is devoted to peculiarities of the Taiwan question, given a special position of the island in the modern system of regional and international relations. The specificity of the relations between the two shores of the Taiwan Strait, the domestic political struggle, a unique position in the regional system of Southeast Asia, regional and transregional integration processes provide a model for well-balanced interaction. Constant vector of the PRC's policy towards the island, the formation of a new paradigm of Taiwan’s “viable diplomacy”, the change of investment flows of USA to Taiwan in periods of ruling of Kuomintang and DPP - distance the prospect of a military solution to the issue of the two shores. The difficulty faced by one or the other leading party of Taiwan is determined by the structural dif-ferences in their programs relative (a key parameter) to mainland China. In the twenty-first century PRC demonstrates the high efficiency of economic instruments for reintegration. In addition to the restrictions, from the point of view of convergence of opposite sides, and, given the long-term prospects, most acceptable is the creation of preferential terms of trade and economic cooperation. This model is applicable by Beijing at the regional and transregional levels. The authors conclude that Taiwan's economy closely connected with mainland China complements the civilizational message of the unity of the Han and their right to civilizational dominance in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):530-538
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS
THE CATCHING-UP DEVELOPMENT: THE ASEAN EXPERIENCE AND IMPORT SUBSTITUTION POLICY OF RUSSIA
Shaldenkova T.Y.
Abstract

The experience of catching-up development of ASEAN countries becomes valuable in the conditions of the Russian of import substitution policy and “turn to the East” in geopolitics. The objective of the paper is revealing the prospects of native catching-up development based on the analysis of theoretical aspects of the model of “flying geese” and their practical application in the ASEAN countries and Russia. The paper presents the theoretical foundations of catching-up development in the framework of the Flying Geese paradigm in the works of K. Akamatsu, R. Vernon, K. Kojima and indicates its main stages. The author reviews the measures of industrial, trade and investment policy of the ASEAN countries on the initial stages of the model and the modern aspects of their economic development. The materials of statistical reports of IMF, UNCTAD, ASEAN, the statistical data of Federal state statistics department of Russia, Federal customs department of Russia, the programs of the Russian Government in the field of import substitution are studied. The achievements and problems of implementing the programs of import substitution in agriculture, industry, IT-technologies in Russia were analyzed. The study showed the factors, hindering the domestic development in the framework of the Flying Geese paradigm. The recommendations for solving existing problems include the stimulation of aggregate demand and the development of high-tech exports. Special attention was drawn to the possibilities of applying selected elements of the model in terms of territorial heterogeneity of Russia.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):539-554
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CONVERGENT (NBIC) TECHNOLOGIES: PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL
Danilin I.V.
Abstract

Modern innovation policy is formed under strong influence of disruptive technologies con-cepts, which help mobilize support for Science and Technology (S&T) policy, structure international S&T cooperation and system, etc. They are also important for the global processes, promising changes in leading powers cohort. This is why disruptive technology concepts are accented by the emerging economics, especially by BRIC nations. A concept of converging (or nano-bio-info-cognitive, also known as NBIC) technologies is very illustrative. Being originally a part of the USA nanotechnology policy and transhumanistic discourse, it gradually evolved globally with focus on “Grand Challenges”. But, despite successes of technology convergence since 2000s, concept itself proved to be not fully operational, being mostly a metaphor for rising interdisciplinarity and discipline convergence. Nonetheless its revolutionary potential was meaningful, but linked not to technological, but institu-tional and socio-cultural dimensions. Among them were human capital development, changing logic of S&T organization, reforming S&T policies, formation of new culture and ethics of research and development, systemic development of national innovation systems. These ideas, implicitly present in the NBIC concept, were of a special importance for the emerging economies as key factors for their enforced growth and rising quality of development processes. But these issues were surprisingly weak articulated in NBIC concept. Partly that was the influence of transhumanist discourse with its escape from solving societal challenges by technological change of human self. Not less important was that NBIC were seen by elites as a mean to bypass deep reforms and buildup of innovation institutions. I.e., concepts of disruptive technologies represent a psychological sub-stitute for a really intense development. Uniqueness of NBIC is that it makes this contradiction very visible. As shown in analyses of NBIC concept, realization of disruptive technologies concepts need stronger accent on the institutional and structural factors, attention to Grand Challenges, etc. Especially this is true for the emerging economies. Only if complex nature and non-technological aspects of disruptive technologies development are taken in consideration, changes of their role in the global processes may occur.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):555-367
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BILATERIAL RELATIONS
US-CUBA RELATIONS: A NEW WAVE OF CONFRONTATION?
Pérez Benitez S., Eremin A.A.
Abstract
The article seeks to analyze the role of the changes introduced by the administration of the former president Barack Obama in 2014-2016 into the bilateral US-Cuba relations; and the way in which the new presidential team are to reorganize this direction. The question on the attitude of Donald Trump towards currently existing policies aimed at solving the long-lasting problem with Cuban socialism is especially interesting since new US president has multiple times condemned the old ways practiced by the former establishment, but at the same time has shown readiness to act in a straight-forward and confrontational manner. One of contributors of the paper, Santiago Perez Benitez, deputy director of the Center for International Political Studies in Havana, is attempting to provide his professional expertise in granting an insider view from the Cuban side, evaluating the progress made since the 2014 and interpret the notion of the upcoming policy changes in Washington. The importance of the Cuban issue in the framework of US. policy in the Western hemisphere is explained by the fact that a solution in this sphere could help remake a negative image of Pan-American policies that haunts Washington. Cuban issue has also been long considered a possible key for reestablish-ment of trust between the United States and Latin American countries. For president Trump, quite unpopular judging by the polls, Cuban issue also has a potential to earn support of his own constituents, who strongly support lifting the embargo from Cuba. However now after certain decisions of Donald Trump the future of US-Cuban relations seems to get gloomier by the day.
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):568-574
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SCIENTIFIC SCHOOL
South-East Asia: Emerging Regional Identity. Interview with prof. Dmitry Mosyakov (Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
Kuklin N.S.
Abstract

Dmitry Mosyakov, leading Russian expert on South-East Asia, graduated from the History and Philology Department of Institute of Asian and African Countries at Lomonosov Moscow State Uni-versity, majoring as an interpreter of the Khmer language in 1979. In 1979-1983 he studied in the post-graduate school of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR. In 1983 he defended his thesis on the problems of the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia. He works for the Institute of Oriental Studies (IOS) since 1985. In 1991, he was trained at the Yale University (USA). In 1994 he defended his doctoral dissertation on the modern history of Cambodia. He is the organizer of the multi-year project “Monitoring of the Modern History of Southeast Asian Countries”, within which the IOS hosts the annual inter-institute conference and, according to the results of the conferences, its materials are published in the peer-reviewed academic journal “Southeast Asia: To-pical Problems of Development”. Dmitry Mosyakov is an editor-in-chief of this journal. He is also the head of the center of South-Eastern Asia, Australia and Oceania of IOS, a member of the Academic Council of the IOS. He is a member of the dissertation council for historical sciences at the IOS, Moscow State Uni-versity, and of the editorial board of the journal “Asia and Africa Today”. Since 2001 he is a Professor and the head of the department of regional studies at the Moscow Humanitarian University (part-time). In 2015, Dmitry Mosyakov was the provisional director of the IOS. Since 2013 he is a member of Editorial Board of Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. The interview includes following topics: the state of development of the South-East Asian studies in Russia and abroad, the perception of international processes in the region, the contemporary problems of the South-East Asia, and the cooperation of Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union countries and integration associations of the South-East Asia region. Describing the processes in the Southeast Asia, Dmitry Mosyakov emphasizes the scientific and practical relevance of the region's research for Russian science, he also draws attention to the possibility of the formation of the new civilizational identities and unique sociocultural processes in the countries of this part of the world.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):575-587
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POLITICAL PORTRAITS
RODRIGO DUTERTE - WHO IS HE?
Panarina D.S.
Abstract
This paper touches upon one of the most odious political figures of modern world - Philippine president Rodrigo Roa Duterte who has been at his post for a year so far. The author aims to take a closer look into his personal and political qualities, figure out in which manner they influence and determine his decision-making process. The article analyses the most significant steps taken by Duterte in his presiden-tial career in order to predict further development of his international and domestic policies alongside with the possible changes in the political layout in the Philippines. Using mostly theoretical methods of analyses and induction the author makes a number of conclusions stating that despite the image of a straight-forwarded brute, Rodrigo Duterte is a much more complex politi-cian, who uses such an image for his own purposes. Being a cunning and wise leader, he knows the bounda-ries that are not to be crossed - this way even his unprecedented behaviour does not undermine his at-tempts to maintain balance among the most influential nations in the world. Massive critique from the outside world does not seem to matter to Duterte since in his politics he firstly relies on the support of his own people, who despite his unconventional methods see him not as a dictator, but as a rather unusual reformist ready to introduce in the Philippines some changes instead of maintaining status-quo. Such policy and determination adds to Duterte’s popularity among his people on the background of the former presidents’ indecisive political moves.
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):588-597
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HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
THE PROBLEM OF REVERSION OF OKINAWA IN THE US-JAPAN POSTWAR RELATIONS
Streltsov D.V.
Abstract

In the postwar period the Okinawa problem for many years was a stumbling block in the relations between Japan and the United States, creating the risk of undermining the foundations of the alliance. In fact, Okinawa personified a deep contradiction between the diplomatic and military-strategic interests of the United States in East Asia and the national interests of Japan, for which Okinawa was a primarily domestic political problem. In the mid-1960 's, despite the increasing role of Okinawa in the American global strategy after the start of the Vietnam war, the United States came to the conclusion of the speedy reversion of Okinawa to Japan. The main obstacle for the implementation of this decision was the nuclear weapon stored in Okinawa, which played an important role in the global strategy of Pentagon. The United States managed to find an option of reversion Okinawa to Japan in 1972, under which they retained the right to store nuclear weapons in Okinawa and to transit them through the island in the case of emergency. The transfer administrative right on Okinawa to Japan was a symbolic act, by which the United States demonstrated their willingness for Japan to play a ‘responsible role’ in the alliance as an active actor, not just a junior partner.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):598-611
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INTERNATIONAL EDUCATIONAL COOPERATION
CONTEMPORARY FEATURES OF COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN IN HIGHER EDUCATION
Burangulov E.R.
Abstract

The article reveals and compares the features and trends of the public policy in the sphere of higher education in Russia and Kazakhstan on the materials of programs, concepts, regulations and speeches of officials in the sphere of educational cooperation. The general factors defining orientation of such inter-action (following to the Bologna agreement and orientation to reconstruction of uniform educational space) and also particular factors are allocated (decentralization and aspiration to nation-building in Kazakhstan, centralization of an education system in Russia). Such problem as transformation of the Bologna system into the channel of recruiting by the leading countries of the most successful and perspective university graduates of Russia and Kazakhstan is accented. The main bilateral educational projects are considered: Network University of the CIS and University of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Two main conclusions are drawn. First, that orientation to the Bo-logna system became the response to changes of social installations and economic situation in the world. Second, such development and the actual strategies of public policy in the sphere of educational cooperation need to be adjusted in accordance with national traditions with the aim of preserving and enhancing the ac-cumulated intellectual, scientific and technical, cultural potential and sustainable socio-political development of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):612-619
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REVIEWS
REVIEW OF THE BOOK: Mosyakov, D.V. (2016). New and recent history: modernization and globalization of Eastern societies. Moscow: Institut of Oriental Countries, Institut of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences. (in Russ.)
Shpakovskaya M.A.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):620-622
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REVIEW OF THE BOOK: Voskressenski, A.D. (Ed.) Is Non-Western Democracy Possible? A Russian Perspective. Singapore: World Scientific, 2017. - 738 p
Michael N.V., Tsvyk A.V., Chikrizova O.S.
Abstract
Vestnik RUDN. International Relations. 2017;17(3):623-630
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