Vol 27, No 3 (2019)

Developed and developing countries economy
US - China trade war: reaction of stock exchanges to the transformation of the foreign policy agenda
Kuchma N.S.
Abstract

Over one and a half years, the attention of investors around the world has been focused on the confrontation of the two largest economies in the world. The aggravation of trade relations between the United States and China was one of the main reasons for the correction of world markets and the general risk aversion. The shifts and changes triggered by this conflict require more considerable attention since they bring about fundamental transformations of the landscape of international relations and the practice of economic interaction not only in relation to the parties to the conflict but also for the whole world, this conflict is not just a confrontation between the two strongest economies of the world, but also a turning point for updating the configuration of the world order. This article aims to analyze the reactions of US and Chinese stock exchanges in connection with the unfolding of a trade conflict between the two countries and assess the level of adaptability of two economies to external challenges. The methodology of this study bases on the fundamentals of the general economic theory and the general theory of conflict resolution - the research bases on the comparative method. The significant elements composing the scholars' analysis of political reality underlying the conflict is presented as well as stock exchanges’ dynamic through the development of the confrontation. The main conclusion of this study was that this conflict is not just a confrontation between the two strongest economies of the world, but also a turning point for updating the configuration of the world order.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):415-428
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The impact of the economic availability of food in Russia on consumption patterns and health of the nation
Vartanova M.L.
Abstract

Currently, Russia is implementing the project “Demography”, which involves the formation of motivation of people to a healthy lifestyle, including a healthy diet. In the article the author reveals the problem of the lack of quality and vital for health products in the daily diet of the majority of the population due to the lack of opportunities to purchase them. Falling incomes and purchasing power of the population shifts the food vector to the consumption of products rich in vegetable fats and sugars or processed products made from inexpensive imported products. High prices for quality products remain the main factor determining the structure of consumption and health of the nation. In this regard, enterprises should start from the regional characteristics both in terms of income levels and dietary habits, and age composition of the target audience, because of the quality of food depends on maintaining the health and longevity of the population and the gene pool of future generations. It is necessary to take measures to promote a healthy diet, create “separate shelves” with natural products, reduce cheating on products, ranging from excise duties to logical costs. Issues of production of environmentally friendly products come to the fore today. In this regard, modern technologies in agriculture are in great demand today, allowing to increase the purity of products.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):429-441
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Introduction of microgeneration and energy-saving technologies within the concept of green economy: foreign experience and Russia
Gomonov K.G., Sipakova P.O., Chapurnaya A.P.
Abstract

The aim of this work is a comparative analysis of the level of development of microgeneration and energy-saving technologies in the framework of the national economy of Russia and the world. The relevance is predetermined by the rapid growth of the investment policy of microgrids and energy-saving technologies based on renewable energy sources (2.6 trillion dollars). Basic information research provided analytical reviews, reports and analytical materials, specialized international departments and agencies, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, as well as the work of Russian and foreign scientists. Understanding the large-scale tasks related to the development, as well as the development of national and international relations, are an incentive for the pursuit of cleaner, primarily technologies. By 2030, provided that the current course on sustainable development is maintained, the green economy should grow to 10 % of the gross world product. Microenergy is an energy-efficient energy source in the restructuring of Russia's energy sector - the transition from a centralized system, the use of large sources of electricity production, the use of various energy sources that are most suitable for these environmental conditions and the characteristics of natural consumers. Reducing the negative impact of pollution on health and the environment can significantly reduce the burden on the economy, thereby freeing up resources for its growth. The transition of the global economy to a model of green growth will require significant efforts to expand international cooperation. This will require consistent government policies over many years. It is advisable for Russia to join in the development of methodologies and the creation of tools for implementing green initiatives.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):442-454
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Russia and Kazakhstan: range and dynamics of relations in the conditions of increasing interdependence of national economies
Gusakov N.P., Maslova M.V.
Abstract

The article reveals the changing role of Russia in Kazakhstan’s economy, identifies its position in trade, investment and humanitarian assistance to the country. The economic potential of Kazakhstan is described, the sectors of the economy most attractive to foreign investors are presented. The main countries seeking to increase their presence in Kazakhstan are identified, their place and role in trade and direct investment in Kazakhstan are compared. The separation of spheres of influence in the country is revealed. It is noted that the EU countries are the leading trade partners of Kazakhstan, but the largest imports to the country come from Russia, in the first place in investments are the Netherlands, then the United States. The most active humanitarian aid to Kazakhstan is provided by China, which pursues an active social policy. The article also analyzes the dynamics of changes in the role of Russia, it is revealed that the country is gradually losing its degree of influence in Kazakhstan, however, at the moment it still remains its main strategic partner.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):455-465
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Current global trends in the diamond market and their impact on the development of diamond complexes of Russia and India
Maltseva O.A., Khromova N.G.
Abstract

The article deals with the current trends of the development of the global diamond complex. The authors draw attention to the growing position of lab-grown diamonds on the diamond market, their impact on the natural diamond market and the growing influence of digital technologies in all segments of the diamond complex. The article also presents some information on changes in the new generation of buyers’ preferences at the present time. The authors also pay attention to the problem of the availability of sources of financing for the industry. The aim of the article is to identify how current trends will affect the development of the diamond complexes of Russia and India. The article is rather relevant as the authors has studied the latest published materials on this subject and analyzed the opinions of practitioners. The results of the investigation are presented in the form of a detailed study of current trends and potential threats to the diamond complexes of Russia and India. In conclusion the authors present the idea that there is the need for a new development strategy for the diamond complexes of Russia and India.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):466-478
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Future economic scenarios of Iran and Russia under sanctions and oil price shocks
Rasoulinezhad E., Sabri P.
Abstract

The two main current economic problems in Russia and Iran are Western sanctions and oil price spikes. On the one hand, the West introduced economic sanctions against these two countries, which affected the national economy of these two countries. On the other hand, since Iran and Russia are heavily dependent on revenues from oil exports, any sharp changes in world oil prices significantly affect the budgets of these two countries. Despite the implementation of the various strategies of the two countries against sanctions and the collision with oil price shocks, their economies are sensitive to these two hyper problems. The main goal of this work is to study probable scenarios for the future economies of Iran and Russia under the conditions of Western sanctions and oil price fluctuations. Our article shows that for the future economies of Iran and Russia there are four economic scenarios in the form of transformation of the economic structure, rapid economic growth, economic stagnation and economic crisis. In the first scenario, there is an increase in sanctions by the West and its allies against the economies of Iran and Russia, and on the other hand, the price of oil is increasing. This scenario is the most possible future for the economies of Russia and Iran. The second possible scenario for the future economies of Russia and Iran is the rapid economic development and economic growth that will arise as a result of a decrease in political tension with the West, which ended with the lifting of economic sanctions and rising world oil prices. The third option that can be foreseen for the future economies of Russia and Iran is economic stagnation, which will occur if the sanctions of the West and its allies are reduced and world oil prices are reduced again. The fourth possible scenario for the economies of Iran and Russia is an economic crisis. Such a scenario appears when the conflict with the West increases and global oil prices fall, resulting in a large-scale decline and as a result of the economic crisis for the future economies of Iran and Russia. By the way, these two economies must adapt to such unpredictable economic events. They can accelerate import substitution, multilateralism in the Eurasian region, and so on.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):479-491
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Financial situation of the EAEU member states: deficits and surpluses, opportunities and risks
Fediakina L.N.
Abstract

The article defines the current level of stability and socio-economic development of the EAEU member states, and examines the factors constraining their economic growth. Public finances are considered: regional and consolidated budgets, budget deficits and sources of their coverage; state and state-guaranteed debts. The financial position of the countries participating in the Eurasian integration in relation to the outside world is analyzed, their deficits/surpluses and debts are revealed on the basis of balance of payments, foreign assets and liabilities.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):492-513
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The impact of cultivated land loss on China’s food security in the process of urbanization
Cheng Y.
Abstract

This article examines the four stages of urbanization in China since the first days of the founding and discusses in detail about the relationship between changes in urbanization, the area of cultivated land and the production of grain products. The aim of this study is to clarify the impact of urbanization on cultivated land and grain production, as well as the problems caused by the fall in the amount of cultivated land. China is the country with the largest population, and whether China's food security can be guaranteed depends not only on China itself, but also on the world. Research method - data analysis, comparison. The scientific basis is the data of the National Bureau of statistics and the Land Bulletin of China.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):514-524
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Industrial organization markets
Technical efficiency of smallholder malt barley producers in Tiyo district (Ethiopia)
Bekele Y., Regasa G.
Abstract
This study analyzed the determinants of technical efficiency of smallholder malt barley producers and estimated their technical efficiency in Tiyo district of Arsi zone, Ethiopia. Data were obtained from 162 randomly selected malt barley farmers. Descriptive statistics and the translog functional form of the production function simultaneously with single stage estimation approach were used to estimate the production of barley output and technical inefficiency factors. The study revealed that the average technical efficiency of the farmers in the production of malt barley is 71%. This reveals that there exists a possibility to increase the level of malt barley yield by 29% utilizing the existing local technical knowledge of efficient farmers. This further implies that it is possible to produce the same output by reducing current input utilization by 29%. The discrepancy ratio (γ), which estimates the relative deviation of output from the frontier level due to inefficiency, was about 61%. This implies that about 62% of the variation in malt barley production among the sample farmers was credited to technical inefficiency while, the remaining 38% comes due to factors outside the control of farmers. The maximum likelihood parameter estimates showed that malt barley yield was significantly influenced by the amount of fertilizers (DAP and UREA), number of oxen, labour, malt barley seed, herbicide usage and land allocated for malt barley. The stochastic production frontier model shows that experience, education status, number of oxen, land size, and extension contact significantly affected technical inefficiency of malt barley production. Therefore, attention should be given to improve the less efficient farmers following the practices of relatively efficient farmers in the area. On top of this, policies and strategies of the government should give due focus for the determinants of technical inefficiencies in malt barley production.
RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):525-535
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Tourism industry in Russia and the EU: are there any consequences of multitiered national agenda?
Bogdashev I.V., Apalkova A.A., Votchenko E.S.
Abstract

The aim of the research is to analyze the modern trends and today's development stage of tourism industries in Russia and the EU (Cyprus and the Czech Republic). The article touches a vital topic of contemporary relations among touristic sphere representatives (national and local entrepreneurs), society (consumers), and governmental support (national and local authorities) through the prism of their relations. The authors consider fundamental macro-economic indicators of the tourism industry as an object of the research, whereas mathematical methods of forecasting in tourism studies are as a subject of the research. Besides, the authors underline the main directions of entrepreneurship support as a part of being a successful start-up, in our case, in the touristic industry. Furthermore, it is worth noting the characteristics of the tourism market and the peculiarities of its regulation. In the end, the collaborators have concluded by analyzing the fact that the government regulation of tourism is an effective means of stimulating investment activity, improving the quality of services provided, and solving social problems in terms of the real health of the nation. However, it is crucial to bear in mind that the main directions of state policy should be the stability and competitiveness of the tourist complex.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):536-550
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Overview of iron and steel industry in China in the 20th and 21st centuries: what are the main steps of its development?
Groysburt V.S., Maslov A.A.
Abstract

Speaking about the XX century after the establishment of People's Republic of China in 1949 the leading trade partner of the country was Soviet Union and after the crisis in Chinese-Soviet relations in the 1960s there has been a shift towards the trade within Asian region, which once again shows that China has always been an active player on the international market because of its productions' power. The way China interacts with other regions and particular countries is an exciting topic for international relations scientists because it reflects the state of affairs of China at every step of its development. For more than 50 years, the Russian metallurgical industry has been building its relationships with China as one of the leading partners. So because Russia has passed through a stage of stagnation after the collapse of the USSR and the period of finding a new balance due to reduced domestic Russian demand, it was crucial to continue developing relations with the closest neighbors and try to catch up. However, why is international trade developing so fast? This happened as a result of the growing purchasing power of the Chinese population; domestic manufacturers are increasing their operations within the domestic market, which is making the country known for being the manufacturer of the world, in its factory. Ferrous metallurgy is used in engineering, construction, and automotive, that is, in critical sectors of the economy. Therefore, scientists and analysts pay great attention to the steel industry and its research. In order to understand the modern state of affairs in the iron and steel industry in China, authors provide an overview of the industry itself using various sources of data, such as historical review and collection of quantitative data, estimate its development to understand its weak and sharp points for the business development.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):551-562
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Crossborder tourist mobility in borderland: theoretical and practical aspects
Stepanova S.V.
Abstract

The socio-economic transformations of Russia as well as the change in the functions of state borders in the context of integration processes in the global society, along with the change in the perception of the tourism at the level of government, business and society, served as a prerequisite for the tourist vector of development of border areas. The increasing competition for the financial resources of tourists contributes to a change in the socioeconomic space of the territories, which is most noticeable in the borderlands. The article substantiates the importance of cross-border tourist mobility in the development of the borderland. Depending on the chosen focus of attention (development of the local community, economic and spatial development of the territory), the benefits and risks for the socio-economic development of the territory are different for the both sides of the border. The cross-border tourist mobility is considered on the example of the Russian-Polish and Russian-Finnish borderlands. A significant asymmetry of mutual cross-border tourist flows has been revealed. This tendency will increase thanks to the actively pursued marketing policy of the business of neighboring countries to stimulate the entry flow of Russian citizens with tourist purposes.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):563-575
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Economic integration and globalization
Methodical approach to assessing the volume of youth labour migration in the states of the Eurasian Economic Union
Veselko A.A.
Abstract

Labour migration plays an integral role in the socio-economic development of any country; it affects both the structure and the size, the social and economic spheres of society. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the migration process, because, in the future, it can have a positive impact on the economic growth of the country. The article proposes a model for macro-economic assessment of the volume of youth labor migration in the states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The model is based on the ideas of labor migration in the form of a random Markov process with discrete states and continuous time. The chain states are interpreted as the labour market of the youth of the respective EAEU states, and the transition rates reflect the attractiveness of these markets for young people from different states. This made it possible to take into account the inherent uncertainty and inertia in the process of youth migration.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):576-586
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Trade in services of member states of the Eurasian Economic Union
Yelikbaev K.N.
Abstract

The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, which became effective since January 1, 2015, establishes the principles and the purposes of integration consolidation and also provides free movement of goods, services, the capital and labor power in the internal market and coordinated, approved, uniform to policy in the designated spheres of economic activity. In the article, the analysis of foreign and internal trade in services in the Eurasian Economic Union is given. The structure and import volume and export of member countries of EAEU are considered. The relevance of a subject is connected with the fact that free movement of services is one of the main directions of integration within the Eurasian Economic Union. As a result of the conducted research, the corresponding conclusions were drawn on leaders in volume among EAEU member countries. Top trends and problems of development of trade in services of member countries are revealed.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):587-603
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Books’ reviews
Book Review of “Exploring the Future of Russia's Economy and Markets: Towards Sustainable Economic Development” (ed. by Bruno S. Sergi. Emerald Publishing Limited, 2019. 288 p.)
Turgel I.D.
Abstract

The monograph under review is devoted to a multilateral analysis of the Russian economy and the prospects for its development in the modern world. The book provides an in-depth analysis of the financial and industrial sectors of the economy, industrial policy, and opportunities for an innovative and green economy in Russia. Impacts of sanctions, the prospects for the development of new industries based on modern technologies in Russia are discussed.

RUDN Journal of Economics. 2019;27(3):604-607
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