Modeling of increased CO 2 emissions, climate scenarios by the use of software energy and climate EC21, case study in Latin America Colombia-Guatemala

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Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Colombia and Guatemala are in the most vulnerable to climate change. Since much of its population is in the highest parts of the mountains, where water scarcity problems are expected, and instability of soils and on the coasts, where the sea level rise and flooding can affect human settlements and key economic activities. It also has a high recurrence of extreme events, with a large and growing technical impact of climate-related emergency [1]. It’s necessary know the historical records of those elements to build mitigation of the negative effects of environmental crisis. However, it has been different advance efforts among stake holders as civil society, academia, government and private sector. As is the case of the Institute of Mining and Geotechnical Glückauf-Verlag of Germany and the British Petroleum Company, which developed the Energy and Climate 21 (EC21) software. The concentrations carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to increase considerably in the last 175 years from 280 ppm (parts per million from 1830 to 380 ppm in 2005) [2]. Under this dynamics, modeling was developed to Colombia with parameters of software with EC21, in order to see the scenario in the medium and long-term CO 2 concentrations and temperature increase. And regional plans and visualizing what challenges the country in action lines mitigation and compensation to the effects of climate change.

A I Kurbatova

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia


F Fonseka Ovalle

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia

M R Aruca

Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia


Abstract - 35

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